Hot and Cold Bets - Week 12

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Hot and Cold Bets - Week 12


Detroit Tigers 41-31 +7.9 Units

Detroit has been atop the American League Central for most of the season but it is still not running away with anything. The Tigers have a five-game lead over the Twins and a six-game lead over the White Sox which is only a two-game increase from exactly a month ago. Heading into the weekend, Detroit has won seven straight games and for June, it is 13-10 no thanks to two separate four-game losing streaks. Detroit is definitely in good shape and can stretch its lead with a good July as it has 14 division games in the month.

The Tigers are third in the American League with a 4.11 ERA thanks to a starting staff that has posted a 4.08 ERA. Three starters, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, all have ERA?s of 3.55 or better and they are a combined 22-11. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.52 which is 22nd in baseball and that is a concern. The offense is hitting .263 which is only 8th in the American League but it has been better of late with a .289 average over its last 10 games.

Following a weekend series at Houston, the Tigers travel to Oakland and then to Minnesota to conclude its nine-game roadtrip. Detroit is 18-20 on the road this season but these are the spots we like to play in the right situations due to the fact we do not have to lay big numbers and in a lot of cases, we can catch them as underdogs. Take away the Tigers 4-10 record against the American League East and they are 37-21 +14 Units against all other teams.

New York Mets 37-34 -0.3 Units

The Mets are anything but hot right now however, we could see a turnaround. New York is just 9-13 in June heading into its weekend series with the Yankees but it is coming off a big series win against the Cardinals and that could provide some much needed momentum going forward. The Mets are hanging close to the Phillies in the National League East and they have been fortunate that Philadelphia is in the midst of a major slump right now. The upcoming schedule is tough but help is on the way.

New York has a 4.11 ERA which is seventh in the National League and it is the bullpen that is leading the way with a 3.44 ERA which is fifth best in all of baseball. The starting pitching has been an issue with a 4.46 ERA and with the exception of Johan Santana and the limited starts from Fernando Nieve, no other starters have an ERA below 4.05. The help on the way mentioned earlier is that John Maine and Oliver Perez are both expected back very shortly. Neither has performed well in their 16 combined starts but a new healthy start for both could do wonders.

The schedule is rough coming up but with that comes good value. After playing the Yankees, the Mets travel to Milwaukee and Philadelphia for back-to-back series with a makeup game against Pittsburgh sandwiched in-between. After that comes a home series with the Dodgers. That is four straight series against playoff contending teams but that means a fair number of underdog and small favorite spots that we can look into to back New York as it looks to turn its season around.

 

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Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays (-101, 9.5)

Let?s just say the Phillies were lucky not to run into the Blue Jays in last year?s World Series.

The Phillies may have had their way with Tampa Bay, but Toronto has owned the defending champions, winning five straight against them heading into this weekend?s series, including claiming three straight last week. During that sweep in the City of Brotherly Love, the Jays scored 23 runs on 31 hits and drew 19 walks, battering the Phillies pitching staff.

Aaron Hill continues to lead the team?s offense. He is hitting .306 BA with 52 RBI and already has equaled a career-high with 17 homers.

He's the last person the Phillies want to see. They have lost eight of their past 10, including yielding 17 runs in their final two games of last week?s series against Tampa Bay.

Bird is not the word for the Phillies.

Pick: Blue Jays

Florida Marlilns at Tampa Bay Rays

Don?t look for these Fish to fry in Florida this weekend.

The Marlins entered the weekend winners of seven of their past 10 games and can thank the return of their offense. The team has scored at least five runs in each of its past four games ? all wins. In those games, the team has combined to score 28 runs on a staggering 51 hits, getting clutch at-bats from virtually every player in the lineup.

Hanley Ramirez has been the catalyst for the team?s offensive surge, as he is hitting .335 BA with 11 home runs, 47 RBI and 46 runs scored.

The Rays did take two of three from the Marlins earlier this year, outscoring them by a combined 29-10, but Florida is playing much better this time around.

Look for the Rays to sleep with the fishes.

Pick: Marlins

 

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Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers


Streaking

Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)

King Felix has given up fewer earned runs this month (four) than most people have fingers on their hand.

Hernandez (7-3, 2.74 ERA) has rebounded from a dreadful May to be nearly flawless this month. In four starts, he has lasted 30 1-3 innings, going at least seven strong each time out. During that span, he has allowed just 21 hits and struck out 26 batters against 11 walks. Good luck Dodgers.

"You could always tell he was going to be good," Mariners catcher Jamie Burke told the Associated Press. "But he is starting to mature and you can see it in his pitching. He doesn't seem like he's 23."

Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)

Guthrie (5-7, 5.09 ERA) has struggled to look the part of an ace for much of the season. But since lasting just 2-3 of an inning on June 5 in Oakland, in which he gave up six earned runs on seven hits, he's giving his best performances of the season.

The right-hander allowed just one earned run over seven innings in his last start, a 2-1 win at Philadelphia. That effort came on the heels of two straight quality starts following the disaster in Oakland.

Guthrie?s key to a win against the Nationals is getting outs early. He has allowed 28 runs in the first two innings this season, but just 27 from the third inning on.

Slumping

Jorge De La Rosa (Colorado Rockies)

Don?t be fooled by the hard-throwing left-hander?s 3-1 record this month.

De La Rosa (3-7, 5.85 ERA) hasn?t made it out of the sixth inning in each of his past two starts, combining to go just eight innings while yielding 11 earned runs on 18 hits. He did strike out 10 batters over that span, but also walked four and allowed three home runs.

It?s hard to expect a hurler owned in a meager 3.3 percent of ESPN?s fantasy leagues to stifle Oakland?s offense.

Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)

It will be a victory for Bailey against the Indians if he doesn?t live up to his first name.

In his lone start of the season on May 23, Bailey went just 4 1-3 innings, yielding six earned runs and walking six. Since that disaster, he was optioned to Triple-A Louisville, where he has compiled a 4-0 record with an 0.47 ERA in his past five starts before being recalled this week.

But playing well in Triple-A and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee and little else, especially against a lineup as potent as Cleveland?s. And the team that shelled him and sent him to the minors last month? Yup, that was the Indians.