2* - Iowa State (+2)
While not surprising, TCU fell into the classic letdown trap and lost to cross town rival SMU in Week Two after shocking the nation by upsetting Oklahoma in their opener. If not for that misstep, the Horned Frogs would likely be playing in a BCS game instead of the Houston Bowl as they have won every game since.
TCU is solid and balanced on offense, averaging 197 rushing and 201 passing yards per game. The 14th ranked Frogs have topped 220 yards rushing in six games and 300 yards three times. In their last eight games, they have averaged 40 points per game and they are on a 9-0 run. TCU is ranked 2nd in the turnover margin department having taken the ball away from their opponents 36 times this season.
You would think that a good case could be made for taking TCU today but the problem is that all of that success was had against a weaker than usual Mountain West schedule and regardless of how the Big 12 has looked this year, it is still a much stronger conference. The Frogs have benefited from their 36 takeaways this season and two of their games were won in overtime while three of Iowa State?s losses were also in extra innings.
Iowa State QB Bret Meyer is only a sophomore and his development over the course of the season has been remarkable. Meyer ranks second in the Big 12 in passing with 238.4 yards per game and 16 touchdowns with only eight interceptions so the passing game has not been the problem. The running game has produced only 3.8 yards per carry with RB Stevie Hicks being out for three games in October. However, the Cyclone defense was exceptional this year, finishing 14th in the nation against the run, 18th in pass efficiency and 16th in scoring defense.
These teams are fairly evenly matched when you look at the stats but again, TCU did not have to play a Big 12 schedule and wins over Wyoming, Army, Air Force, San Diego State and Colorado State do not impress me as not one of those teams had a winning record and three of their other wins were by three points or less. It can?t help that the last time the Frogs played in a game was exactly seven week ago. I?ll take the points with what I think is the better team.
While not surprising, TCU fell into the classic letdown trap and lost to cross town rival SMU in Week Two after shocking the nation by upsetting Oklahoma in their opener. If not for that misstep, the Horned Frogs would likely be playing in a BCS game instead of the Houston Bowl as they have won every game since.
TCU is solid and balanced on offense, averaging 197 rushing and 201 passing yards per game. The 14th ranked Frogs have topped 220 yards rushing in six games and 300 yards three times. In their last eight games, they have averaged 40 points per game and they are on a 9-0 run. TCU is ranked 2nd in the turnover margin department having taken the ball away from their opponents 36 times this season.
You would think that a good case could be made for taking TCU today but the problem is that all of that success was had against a weaker than usual Mountain West schedule and regardless of how the Big 12 has looked this year, it is still a much stronger conference. The Frogs have benefited from their 36 takeaways this season and two of their games were won in overtime while three of Iowa State?s losses were also in extra innings.
Iowa State QB Bret Meyer is only a sophomore and his development over the course of the season has been remarkable. Meyer ranks second in the Big 12 in passing with 238.4 yards per game and 16 touchdowns with only eight interceptions so the passing game has not been the problem. The running game has produced only 3.8 yards per carry with RB Stevie Hicks being out for three games in October. However, the Cyclone defense was exceptional this year, finishing 14th in the nation against the run, 18th in pass efficiency and 16th in scoring defense.
These teams are fairly evenly matched when you look at the stats but again, TCU did not have to play a Big 12 schedule and wins over Wyoming, Army, Air Force, San Diego State and Colorado State do not impress me as not one of those teams had a winning record and three of their other wins were by three points or less. It can?t help that the last time the Frogs played in a game was exactly seven week ago. I?ll take the points with what I think is the better team.
