How the electoral votes are playing out...

[Scott4USC]

From realclearpolitics.com, a board that tracks and averages all the polls here is what transpired since OCt. 18 in the battleground states.

10/28: NM - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 232 - Kerry 207)
10/28: NC - Leaning Bush >> Solid Bush (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/28: IA - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/28: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 234 - Kerry 207)
10/26: MI - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 228)
10/23: HI - Solid Kerry >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 211)
10/22: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 211)
10/22: ME/1 - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 190)
10/22: IA - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 234 - Kerry 189)
10/21: MI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 189)
10/20: NH - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 206)
10/19: MN - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 210)
10/18: FL - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 220)

Bush stands at 232 mostly solid electoral votes, with Kerry at 207. Of those in contest: Fla, IA, and MN there is a majority of polls leaning to Bush for 44 potential electoral vote. In NH and OH there is a majority of polls leaning to Kerry for 34 electoral votes. In PA and WI there is nearly a dead heat, respresenting 31 votes. IMO Bush seems likely to take Wisconsin while Kery seems likely to take Ohio.

If the leaning states go towards Bush and Kerry then Bush wins if he wins FLA, IA and any other state.

Kerry would have to take PA, OH and FLA to win and hope not to lose any state, even HI or NH which have shown recent signs of moving towards Bush.

 

[MR. LOCK]

All Kerry need is Michigan & PA

All Kerry need is Michigan & PA

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw106472_20041029.htm

 

[Scott4USC]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 236 Bush 281

 

[Master Capper]

Scott,

That is not the correct map and you know it! The correct predicted map on that site has Kerry winning!

 

[Master Capper]

The correct total for the map Scott posted is:

Predicted Final Results: Kerry 271 Bush 223

 

[Scott4USC]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 236 Bush 281
Oct. 29

Am I missing something?

 

[Master Capper]

Scott,

Thats not the total for the predicted final, go to the site and right below the map is a tab that says predicted final. Click on that tab and it will print a new map based on projected totals, the new map takes into account computer models based on new voters trends and past election trends of undecided voters. The site is a pretty good site and I don't think the guy who runs the site is bias toward either side. The map you are showing is based on the latest poll that is submitted to the website and that map can change quite radically depending on what poll they receive, for example if the latest polls are from American Family Research they tend to be skewed to wards Kerry and if they are from Gallup or Fox News they are usually way off and biased to wards Bush. Personally, I think that the site is the best on the net for the election as the links provided from the site are such great stories that you typically will not find on any of the other media outlets.

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Master Capper my god how old are you 12?
Take a chill-pill it's only a goddamn map.

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks for the explanation MC but why wouldn't you go by the "latest" polls vs a prediction? In my opinion things "can" change day to day, so I would go with the latest polls. You never know, Kerry or Bush could get big bounce in the next few days in certain states. So wouldn't you go by the LATEST POLLS? For example it looks like Bush is taking FL while Kerry might be taking Ohio and PA is dead heat. In his prediction he has a lot if not all of the close states going Kerry.

Oct. 29th
Predicted Final Results: Kerry 271 Bush 223

Oct. 29th
Based on the latest polls: Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 236 Bush 281

 

[Master Capper]

Hey Ctownguy it's about time for you to get a life as you have been nothing but a degenerate trouble maker here for the past few years that constantly is attacking someone. I see the change of your nickname has not changed the bitterness of your shortcomings in life that exudes from each post that you make. Unfortunately even with the name change your still a 50 something year old man that lacks a life and lives his life vicariously through a website which is quite sickening but I bet when you leave your fantasy world of internet forums and face the real world your one of those guys that is as meek as a mouse and would never verbally take someone down like you do on an anonymous forum!

 

[ocelot]

So let me guess, Manson the Moron is actually our old wacko pal ctown? My God, does that figure or what?

Why the name change - did he embarass himself and have to invent this new sick handle?

 

[Master Capper]

It's him, same anger on the same topic and use of the same wording! I don't know why the name change the last post I recall from him he said he was taking a break from posting because he was ill which makes me wonder if his illness was mental?

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Actaully I just like pissing all you guys off! I always win these arguments and you guys can't stand it can ya??!!! :142smilie

You can say what ever you want about me as a person, it is totally irrellevant to myself, the rest of the board, and the political topics at hand. Anytime you guys lose your debates with me, you resort to personal attacks, just like you just did!!
Keep it up you guys I find it HALARIOUS!!

:Yep:

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

I said I was taking a break from posting? :thinking:

You think I'm someone else don't you??? LMAO! you guys are dumber than I ever thought!! :yup


Why don't you email Madjack and he can tell you if I have 2 screennames...he can tell by the IP address or whatever you call it!!! ..
..aren't you glad you guys have me here to do all the critical thinking for your little peabrains?

 

[IntenseOperator]

Ctown posted in BestLineSports 2004 $30,000 College Football Challenge forum

:shrug:

he still around and posting

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Intense these guys are saying that I am ctown in disguise. I told them to email Madjack so he can trace the IP address and give us the results. Hopefully they'll take my advice.

 

[bgold13]

ya that site changes every day, i can't beleive bush is going to take hawaii. lets hope bush pulls out ohio

 

[Scott4USC]

The race is over if Bush takes Ohio or PA. Otherwise it will be close.

 

[bjfinste]

Ctown posted in BestLineSports 2004 $30,000 College Football Challenge forum

:shrug:

he still around and posting

I have no idea if he actually is ctownguy or not, but if he's not, the two of them may have been twins separated at birth. They sound exactly the same in their little rants.