New rules, 2008-09 season.
College hoops coaches finally got their wish. The three-point line grew a foot.
Considering how unpopular the distance (19-feet-9) was when the NCAA began using the 3 in 1986, it?s surprising it took 22 years to extend the shot to 20-9. Coaches said 19-9 was a chip shot that turned the sport into a circus, i.e., took the game away from dominant big men.
?The line was so short,? Louisville coach Rick Pitino told Athlon Sports. ?I?m 55 (years old) and I could go out there and shoot 45 percent if nobody played defense on me. It really was too short. Inferior shooters ended up taking it. And that?s not good.?
The new line will supposedly open up offenses. Defenses will have to stretch to guard the perimeter, allowing those big men room to work in the lane.
At least, that?s the conventional thinking.
Davidson's Stephen Curry won't be fazed by the longer 3-point line.
Most shooters won?t be fazed by the extra foot. And if they connect (likely), it?ll surely open up offenses. Some coaches, like Memphis? John Calipari, aren?t the least bit concerned. The Tigers made about 35 percent of their 3s last season, and Coach Cal can?t see them being any worse this year.
This shot selection chart from Ken Pomeroy (compiled from more than 4,000 games over the past 5 years or about 340,000 shots), shows as much.
Players make about 37 percent of their attempts from 20 feet. At 21 feet, it?s about the same. Also true from 22 feet. Percentages don?t drop significantly until they start heaving it from 25 feet (about 34.5 percent).
In theory, teams shouldn?t be overly affected by the extra foot, and defenses will have to work harder to guard the three.
Still, it may not open up the game because there will likely be fewer overall attempts.
Coaches will reign in some of their more questionable shooters. Those 6-10 power forwards? Probably not going to get the green light, which will mean fewer 3s overall. (Officials expect 3s to encompass about 30 percent of the game?s attempts.)
And if there are fewer attempts, that means more guys drifting toward the basket, which makes it easier on defenses. If that doesn?t work, expect coaches to use more zone defense.
Any changes to the game will be subtle. Teams will adjust and still play to their strengths, whether it?s hoisting 3s or scoring in the paint. (Nobody uses the mid-range game anymore.)
You can read an excellent analysis on those subtle changes here. SI.com?s Luke Winn detailed four areas that he thought would be affected and come to these conclusions: Mid-majors will be hit the hardest; UNC and UConn ? two of this season?s biggest contenders ? won?t have any issues; defenses that force mid-range jumpers will thrive; and marginal shooters will be ignored.
It?s good stuff. Keep the first two in mind when filling out your bracket.
The mid-major aspect doesn?t apply to every mid-major (not everyone relies on the 3), but does affect three of 2007-08?s most impressive teams, Butler, Drake and Davidson. All three relied on 3s for more than a third of their offense. If any of those three struggle with the 20-9 line, this season may not be as kind.
As to UNC and UConn not having many issues, that?s because neither relied on 3s as much as the rest of the 2008 field. The same was true for other contenders like Michigan State and UCLA. It?s reasonable to expect all four won?t miss a beat this season with the longer line.
But wait, there?s more!
Rush the Court tried to determine which teams had the fewest ?pure shooters? by separating shooting percentages at home and on the road. If a team had a large disparity between the two, they will likely struggle this season at 20-9 because they benefited from a shorter line at home.
Among the most vulnerable big names? Vandy, Temple, BYU, Georgetown, Florida, Pitt and defending champion Kansas. The Owls were the worst, shooting 10 percentage points worse on the road.
Teams unfazed on the road include Oregon, Arizona, Duke, Miami (Fla.), Baylor, Gonzaga and Michigan State. The Ducks and Devils shot better than 38 percent on the road.
(RTC did have six teams who were better on the road than at home, but chalked them up as abnormalities.)
Finally, who are the players unlikely to be affected? ESPN?s Fran Fraschilla compiled a list of his top 10 shooters in the game. (Jay Bilas compiled a list of the best all-time college shooter, with Georgia Tech?s Dennis Scott atop the list. I?d go with Ray Allen.)
Most of ?em are who you?d expect ? Davidson?s Stephen Curry and Notre Dame?s Kyle McAlarney are probably the best pure shooters. Others like UAB?s Robert Vaden and Miami?s Jack McClinton are scorers who can also hit from anywhere on the court. And some, like American?s Garrison Carr and Cornell?s Ryan Wittman, are little-known players who could shoot their way into some highlights this season.
A couple of others to consider: Texas Tech?s Alan Voskuil (hit 50 percent of his 134 attempts last season), West Virginia?s Alex Ruoff (Bob Huggins always has one go-to guy who emerges as a star) and BYU?s Jonathan Tavernari (only made 37.6 of his attempts, but he has unlimited range.)
And it always helps to have that guy who can knock down a 3 when needed.
Ask Kansas.
College hoops coaches finally got their wish. The three-point line grew a foot.
Considering how unpopular the distance (19-feet-9) was when the NCAA began using the 3 in 1986, it?s surprising it took 22 years to extend the shot to 20-9. Coaches said 19-9 was a chip shot that turned the sport into a circus, i.e., took the game away from dominant big men.
?The line was so short,? Louisville coach Rick Pitino told Athlon Sports. ?I?m 55 (years old) and I could go out there and shoot 45 percent if nobody played defense on me. It really was too short. Inferior shooters ended up taking it. And that?s not good.?
The new line will supposedly open up offenses. Defenses will have to stretch to guard the perimeter, allowing those big men room to work in the lane.
At least, that?s the conventional thinking.
Davidson's Stephen Curry won't be fazed by the longer 3-point line.
Most shooters won?t be fazed by the extra foot. And if they connect (likely), it?ll surely open up offenses. Some coaches, like Memphis? John Calipari, aren?t the least bit concerned. The Tigers made about 35 percent of their 3s last season, and Coach Cal can?t see them being any worse this year.
This shot selection chart from Ken Pomeroy (compiled from more than 4,000 games over the past 5 years or about 340,000 shots), shows as much.
Players make about 37 percent of their attempts from 20 feet. At 21 feet, it?s about the same. Also true from 22 feet. Percentages don?t drop significantly until they start heaving it from 25 feet (about 34.5 percent).
In theory, teams shouldn?t be overly affected by the extra foot, and defenses will have to work harder to guard the three.
Still, it may not open up the game because there will likely be fewer overall attempts.
Coaches will reign in some of their more questionable shooters. Those 6-10 power forwards? Probably not going to get the green light, which will mean fewer 3s overall. (Officials expect 3s to encompass about 30 percent of the game?s attempts.)
And if there are fewer attempts, that means more guys drifting toward the basket, which makes it easier on defenses. If that doesn?t work, expect coaches to use more zone defense.
Any changes to the game will be subtle. Teams will adjust and still play to their strengths, whether it?s hoisting 3s or scoring in the paint. (Nobody uses the mid-range game anymore.)
You can read an excellent analysis on those subtle changes here. SI.com?s Luke Winn detailed four areas that he thought would be affected and come to these conclusions: Mid-majors will be hit the hardest; UNC and UConn ? two of this season?s biggest contenders ? won?t have any issues; defenses that force mid-range jumpers will thrive; and marginal shooters will be ignored.
It?s good stuff. Keep the first two in mind when filling out your bracket.
The mid-major aspect doesn?t apply to every mid-major (not everyone relies on the 3), but does affect three of 2007-08?s most impressive teams, Butler, Drake and Davidson. All three relied on 3s for more than a third of their offense. If any of those three struggle with the 20-9 line, this season may not be as kind.
As to UNC and UConn not having many issues, that?s because neither relied on 3s as much as the rest of the 2008 field. The same was true for other contenders like Michigan State and UCLA. It?s reasonable to expect all four won?t miss a beat this season with the longer line.
But wait, there?s more!
Rush the Court tried to determine which teams had the fewest ?pure shooters? by separating shooting percentages at home and on the road. If a team had a large disparity between the two, they will likely struggle this season at 20-9 because they benefited from a shorter line at home.
Among the most vulnerable big names? Vandy, Temple, BYU, Georgetown, Florida, Pitt and defending champion Kansas. The Owls were the worst, shooting 10 percentage points worse on the road.
Teams unfazed on the road include Oregon, Arizona, Duke, Miami (Fla.), Baylor, Gonzaga and Michigan State. The Ducks and Devils shot better than 38 percent on the road.
(RTC did have six teams who were better on the road than at home, but chalked them up as abnormalities.)
Finally, who are the players unlikely to be affected? ESPN?s Fran Fraschilla compiled a list of his top 10 shooters in the game. (Jay Bilas compiled a list of the best all-time college shooter, with Georgia Tech?s Dennis Scott atop the list. I?d go with Ray Allen.)
Most of ?em are who you?d expect ? Davidson?s Stephen Curry and Notre Dame?s Kyle McAlarney are probably the best pure shooters. Others like UAB?s Robert Vaden and Miami?s Jack McClinton are scorers who can also hit from anywhere on the court. And some, like American?s Garrison Carr and Cornell?s Ryan Wittman, are little-known players who could shoot their way into some highlights this season.
A couple of others to consider: Texas Tech?s Alan Voskuil (hit 50 percent of his 134 attempts last season), West Virginia?s Alex Ruoff (Bob Huggins always has one go-to guy who emerges as a star) and BYU?s Jonathan Tavernari (only made 37.6 of his attempts, but he has unlimited range.)
And it always helps to have that guy who can knock down a 3 when needed.
Ask Kansas.
