There are a lot of different ways to bet baseball. Some people take mostly dogs. Some people take mostly favorites. A few take only runline favorites. When taking dogs you obviously bet 1 unit to win whatever it would be. But the argument starts of how to bet when you bet favorites. Do you bet 1 unit or do you bet 1 unit plus the juice? Or do you bypass all that when you bet favorites and just bet the runline at + money. I live in Vegas and bet at one of the best sportsbooks here everyday and here different sides of the argument. I would like to hear yours or if you know any articles on this subject let me know. I would also like to hear Fletcher's point of view as I respect him a great deal. I am in this to make money as are all of you, and hopefully we can all help each other out and beat the books. Thanks in advance for your help
How to bet baseball
- Thread starter Steve Di
- Start date
When it gets up to around -150 I sometimes like to play the RL-1
Do you bet 1 unit or do you bet 1 unit plus the juice?
What's the difference? The odds don't change.
I'm also starting to use the Labourchere chase betting method. (don't ask, I'm still learning)
Do you bet 1 unit or do you bet 1 unit plus the juice?
What's the difference? The odds don't change.
I'm also starting to use the Labourchere chase betting method. (don't ask, I'm still learning)
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On my posted pics (first MLB pics of the season posted today, a sweep!) I usually post this with it:
"all flat bet 1 unit risk per pic (for example, a +135 pic would pay 1.35 units, a -135 pic would pay 0.74 units, no rounding up or down).
no SU chalk over -170."
I don't like to vary my bet, by even a little bit, because then my breakeven percentage will rise. If I take some really big ones, then why even take the smaller ones?
Yes, this flat-bet method of risking same amount on every bet means that payoff on big faves not so big. But if I lose one of these shockers--then, hey, I'm just down one flat-bet amount. That helps keep the emotions on even keel, which you need for the day-to-day grind. And nice day if you win those big dogs!
In baseball I don't like to make one game more important than the next. Betting this sport is all about grinding out wins and finding value, not picking "winners". The worst teams are still gonna win 60 games.
Also this method easy to bet with in Las Vegas as you place simple $20 or $200 bets, or whatever, and force the ticket writer to make change on just the payouts. Also simple for the record keeping and comparisons--folks can grasp and scale easy for their own bet size what "Win/loss is 100-64, up 32 units for season" means for them in real dollars winnings and outlay at ticket counter.
"flat-betting" means wagering in a manner that gives all games equal relative weight. Technically, my way spelled out above doensn't do this. Risking same amount on each bet regardless of odds, I'm actually putting more weight on games that are farther away from +100; my +180 and -170 games have more value than my -120 and +120 games. I don't mind that as I usually scruitinize those high favs or high dogs more anyway, and I wanna keep my method because of all the benefits listed. And I don't take too many high favs or high dogs anyway.
But to give true equal weights to all bets (be technically correct in "equal weights"), you take your unit amount (1 in this example), and bet the amount that the risk + the win = double the unit size.
For example:
-120 fav: risk .91 to win 1.09
+150 dog: risk .80 to win 1.20
-200 fav: risk 1.33 to win .67
+180 dog: risk .72 to win 1.28
For a Fave: Bet Size = 2U/((100/ODDS) + 1)
For a Dog: Bet Size = 2U/((ODDS/100) + 1))
where U = Unit Size and ODDS = the absolute value of the odds, or the odds without the negative sign in front if there is a negative sign.
That said, I do some scaled wagering, two-star pics at 1.5 units and such. Mostly to get the flexibility to really take advantage of prime gambling situations, when I thinks one pic is real strong or when I'm on a winning streak. Tho I'm not all convinced in long run this works for me. But helps my gambling emotions and hunches, and fools me into thinking I can grow my bankroll faster RIGHT NOW. But I don't post them here, but sometimes capture their value by adding to a parlay, like today.
"all flat bet 1 unit risk per pic (for example, a +135 pic would pay 1.35 units, a -135 pic would pay 0.74 units, no rounding up or down).
no SU chalk over -170."
I don't like to vary my bet, by even a little bit, because then my breakeven percentage will rise. If I take some really big ones, then why even take the smaller ones?
Yes, this flat-bet method of risking same amount on every bet means that payoff on big faves not so big. But if I lose one of these shockers--then, hey, I'm just down one flat-bet amount. That helps keep the emotions on even keel, which you need for the day-to-day grind. And nice day if you win those big dogs!
In baseball I don't like to make one game more important than the next. Betting this sport is all about grinding out wins and finding value, not picking "winners". The worst teams are still gonna win 60 games.
Also this method easy to bet with in Las Vegas as you place simple $20 or $200 bets, or whatever, and force the ticket writer to make change on just the payouts. Also simple for the record keeping and comparisons--folks can grasp and scale easy for their own bet size what "Win/loss is 100-64, up 32 units for season" means for them in real dollars winnings and outlay at ticket counter.
"flat-betting" means wagering in a manner that gives all games equal relative weight. Technically, my way spelled out above doensn't do this. Risking same amount on each bet regardless of odds, I'm actually putting more weight on games that are farther away from +100; my +180 and -170 games have more value than my -120 and +120 games. I don't mind that as I usually scruitinize those high favs or high dogs more anyway, and I wanna keep my method because of all the benefits listed. And I don't take too many high favs or high dogs anyway.
But to give true equal weights to all bets (be technically correct in "equal weights"), you take your unit amount (1 in this example), and bet the amount that the risk + the win = double the unit size.
For example:
-120 fav: risk .91 to win 1.09
+150 dog: risk .80 to win 1.20
-200 fav: risk 1.33 to win .67
+180 dog: risk .72 to win 1.28
For a Fave: Bet Size = 2U/((100/ODDS) + 1)
For a Dog: Bet Size = 2U/((ODDS/100) + 1))
where U = Unit Size and ODDS = the absolute value of the odds, or the odds without the negative sign in front if there is a negative sign.
That said, I do some scaled wagering, two-star pics at 1.5 units and such. Mostly to get the flexibility to really take advantage of prime gambling situations, when I thinks one pic is real strong or when I'm on a winning streak. Tho I'm not all convinced in long run this works for me. But helps my gambling emotions and hunches, and fools me into thinking I can grow my bankroll faster RIGHT NOW. But I don't post them here, but sometimes capture their value by adding to a parlay, like today.
I agree with most of what terry stated above, but the most inportant 2 points he made were this sport is about finding value, and flat betting. Now I will admit I do rank some of my games higher than others, but these account for less than 8% of my plays ytd. If you see equal value in a +120 play and a -120 play then you would have 100 to win 120 on the dog and 120 to win 100 on the fav. If you do not bet that way then you defeat the purpose. Lots of theories I guess, but there are some basic principles you just cant skrew with.
GL
GL
1 unit of dogs
1 unit of fav. plus 1 unit on the RL
been doin ok with this system, just gotta pic the right team.lol
1 unit of fav. plus 1 unit on the RL
been doin ok with this system, just gotta pic the right team.lol
Steve DI:
I flat bet about 50% or litte more for over 12 years i am more top heavy on favs but have my reasons and has been working for over 12 years, i have different factors that show me a play, it's not just picking a fav, in other sports i am about 60-40 on favs and dogs . Also do lot of totals.
Email me and we can catch up at the book and will show you my methods.
Take care.
Eric
I flat bet about 50% or litte more for over 12 years i am more top heavy on favs but have my reasons and has been working for over 12 years, i have different factors that show me a play, it's not just picking a fav, in other sports i am about 60-40 on favs and dogs . Also do lot of totals.
Email me and we can catch up at the book and will show you my methods.
Take care.
Eric
This is not what I do today but what I did when I started over 15 years ago. It won back then and will win today. Limit your bets to the three best plays you have each day. Straight bet all three and par them. 1 unit per bet. No favs over -150. When you get 25 units ahead, you up your unit by 1/2 and start over. If this won't win for you, you might consider playing poker. Good luck
by that calculation going 2-1 will lose you money most days unless you're hitting dogs.
1w (+100)
1w (+100)
1L (-110 or higher if fav)
1L (-100 on the parlay
Forget about going 1-2 or the dreaded 0-3.
Yeah, its nice to sweep and go 3-0 but thats the only way you make tangible profits. Talk about your big swings. No thanks. I cant stomach picking more winners than losers and not making money. Although I do have the same -150 chalk rule.
Everyone can discuss this til their blue in the face, but the bottom line is "what makes you money"
1w (+100)
1w (+100)
1L (-110 or higher if fav)
1L (-100 on the parlay
Forget about going 1-2 or the dreaded 0-3.
Yeah, its nice to sweep and go 3-0 but thats the only way you make tangible profits. Talk about your big swings. No thanks. I cant stomach picking more winners than losers and not making money. Although I do have the same -150 chalk rule.
Everyone can discuss this til their blue in the face, but the bottom line is "what makes you money"
IX-
Using your logic, if you went 2-1 seven days in a row and then went 0-3 you would be lucky to be up 3 units. If you can't go 3-0 a couple of times a week you are going to lose money regardless. If you are betting favs you have to hit almost 70% and if you hit that per centage you are crazy not to parlay them. In basketball or football this system works even better. By the way, I've never had a losing season in any sport.
Using your logic, if you went 2-1 seven days in a row and then went 0-3 you would be lucky to be up 3 units. If you can't go 3-0 a couple of times a week you are going to lose money regardless. If you are betting favs you have to hit almost 70% and if you hit that per centage you are crazy not to parlay them. In basketball or football this system works even better. By the way, I've never had a losing season in any sport.
