Seriously listen to me guys i been at this for years learned from losses and it's not that hard
1st off one thing remains constant in all pro sports the side that no odds maker can put a figure on and YOU are 100% winners when you get this side right
Because it's simply the psychological human emotional reverse result that happens
Results so you understand what i mean clearly you remember last year Colts playing that Coach strong motivation 1st game vs Packers - 21 points at half surmounted a come back as a dog to win s/u next week + 3 at Jets got ears handed to them 35 - 9
2nd time @ Jags Cheerleaders Shaved heads to show support for Coach strong win game 27-10
next week at Pats + 10 points KABOOM 59-24 LOSS
week 17 Coach returns to team 1st time win vs texans 28-16 next game WC @ Ravens +7 points
byieeeeeeeeeeeeeee 24 - 9 loss
way back 2005 EX redskins Coach Norv Turner (Raiders HC) wins game at wash. see replays in Room him getting game ball crying hugging his team players etc...
Next week home favored - 7 vs Dolphins LOST the game 33-21 and Norv finshed his 2nd year with Raiders then finished up career with Chargers
last year John fox wins @ Panthers his former team Home - 8 1/2 points vs Chargers Lost $ won 30- 23
OK now for mathmetical side Vegas uses power rankings Coach power rankings teams defensive stats and offensive stats as in yards per play comes up with a number and deducts or adds for injuries then uses thier huge data base for public perception team gives head man the results he puts up final opening line .......................well i tried using thier method and it will rattle your brain
simple way use total points scored vs points allowed both teams subtract to get differnce like this
Falcons pf 176 pa 218 they are - 42 total for year divde by 8 games = - 5 . 25 ppg round off to - 5
Seahawks 232 pf 149 PA + 83 points divide by 9 = + 9 . 251 round off to +9
ok when you have a negative # vs a +number you add them together to get point to point difference between two teams so - 5 + a +9 = 14 points which will be about margin of victory
So now wee look at Falcons getting two players back on offense both WR's line dropped 2 points from + 6 1/2 to + 4 1/2 I have 6 on my pool so i capped that number
Falcons are now + 1 Seahawks are + 3 but as a pckem Seahawks were + 4 points now they are + 2 points! See that plus 2 points this will be close to final margin of victory.
ummmmmmm both teams Played Bucs already Seahawks hit trap game at home after two div. wins fell flat on thier face and got taken by a rookie qb and had to over come a huge DD deficit to win in OT this type of game exausts both teams for next week and
OK back to more math so we add the +1 to + 3 now we have 4 points thats a huge differnce here from the 14 points above 10 points off ... now i go look at My chart system ATS results from week to week.
Falcons two straight negatives ATS - 11.5 and - 15 an honest team 2-6 ATS and s/u
Sehawks Vegas adjusted from last year 4- 5 ATS 8 -1 s/u last year they were 6-3 ATS 5-4 s/u at this point
Seahawkstwo str8 negatives - 8 points ATS and - 12 points ATS
so only one team goes above the 0 line unless it's a push which is impossible when you have a 1/2 point line rarely happens at 5 or 4 or 6 points most common pushes are happening at 3 pts the most in all lined games 7 is 2nd in NFL then of course 10 14 17
so the right side here we know is Falcons because seattle is one bad team playing east early games
DONT go BY week 1 - 3 pt at panthers Panthers are Bad bets in home openers normally favored and lose $ or game
Next of course YOU must look at schedules to spot trap games .Schedule traps as Seattle walked into last week Beat Cards - 6 @ zona on thurs 34-22 Won at Rams by 5 points as a huge 11. 5 chalk ok fer sure Seahawks aint looking ahaed to anybody Vikings next then bye week get saints at home on MNF and boy do these birds stay on Vacation after byes I'll let you know that team trend when it comes up on 12/2
Falcons cannot afford to look ahaed to any body they only have 2 wins and are just about out of playoff race behind Saints and Panthers
Falcons win this game s/u
woooo boy poor vikings next week @ Seahawks :facepalm: 45 - 10 win for seat.
Sometimes me thinks vegas is on crack pipe i mean tossing money at us
:0071
for instance 49ers get ears handed to them at Seahawks 29-3 home - 11 vs The Colts ???? yep lost again 27-7
ooooooooooo the sucker lines too Colts win huge +3 vs Seattle 34-28 MNF @ Chargers - 1 point LOL lost the game 19-9
Colts are in that trap game WON @ texans last week had to overcome trplie TD defecit in 4th quarter won that quater 15-0 now - 12 vs Rams with Titans up next on thurs btw in case you forgot Jeff was HC in Colts div with Titans for years just about same team and stadium hasn't Changed
Pagano has no idea of fischers trick plays I see it happening the second biggest upset this year
KC week 1 - 3 1/2 WIN @ Jags 28-2 whole square world gets knee jerk reaction hamers kc at home - 2 1/2 - 3 /12 vs Cowboys yup you fooking ate that lollipop while i calmly walked to corner asked what line was Tom says to me Chiefs - 4 i handed him 200 cash GIVE me Cowboys and smile the whole game Cowboys easy cover lost by 1 point 17-16
another sucker line Chiefs win huge vs raiders 24-7 - 6 1/2 vs Texans ooooooooo boyyyyyy repeat score exact vs Cowboys win game 17- 16 how's dem lollipops taste?
Panthers win huge + 1 vs NYG 38-0 go on bye week at Cardnials - 3 hmmmmmmmmmmm i had trouble with this game week 5 but circled cards as a pck and panthers got ears handed to them 22-6 wheeeeeeeeewwwwwwww (insert gif hand wiping sweat off forehead )
Also remember when you see some one cry FIXED games in NFL say was it because YOU lost the BET!
Yeah in College happens all the time BUT Vegas ain't making the fixes it's within team players betting on other side , the kids booking games on campus hand out couple $100 to QB ..... punter kicker RB qb or outside cash influence HC phone rings guy says look your a fucking huge favorite 28 points win the game by 21 you still look good
In NFL these are Millionaires on the field and no body knows who the refs are until announced on field
they are unapproachable by Rules of NFL if any REF is spotted talking to outside known bookies or that type of illegal operator ......but it can happen without them being spotted still what about the other refs ? and Instant replay also how da fook you going to pay any player or HC who is paid millions already how can you offer up $100,000 to 3 players to cough up ball at wrong time ?
or even $2000 per player
Yeah i had arguments with other losers crying FIX all the time I simply said get me hard evidence of a fix being made not some non call by ref or a bad penalty call or becuse a Jack off player tautned other team etc....
OK games are on have a great day
1st off one thing remains constant in all pro sports the side that no odds maker can put a figure on and YOU are 100% winners when you get this side right
Because it's simply the psychological human emotional reverse result that happens
Results so you understand what i mean clearly you remember last year Colts playing that Coach strong motivation 1st game vs Packers - 21 points at half surmounted a come back as a dog to win s/u next week + 3 at Jets got ears handed to them 35 - 9
2nd time @ Jags Cheerleaders Shaved heads to show support for Coach strong win game 27-10
next week at Pats + 10 points KABOOM 59-24 LOSS
week 17 Coach returns to team 1st time win vs texans 28-16 next game WC @ Ravens +7 points
byieeeeeeeeeeeeeee 24 - 9 loss
way back 2005 EX redskins Coach Norv Turner (Raiders HC) wins game at wash. see replays in Room him getting game ball crying hugging his team players etc...
Next week home favored - 7 vs Dolphins LOST the game 33-21 and Norv finshed his 2nd year with Raiders then finished up career with Chargers
last year John fox wins @ Panthers his former team Home - 8 1/2 points vs Chargers Lost $ won 30- 23
OK now for mathmetical side Vegas uses power rankings Coach power rankings teams defensive stats and offensive stats as in yards per play comes up with a number and deducts or adds for injuries then uses thier huge data base for public perception team gives head man the results he puts up final opening line .......................well i tried using thier method and it will rattle your brain
simple way use total points scored vs points allowed both teams subtract to get differnce like this
Falcons pf 176 pa 218 they are - 42 total for year divde by 8 games = - 5 . 25 ppg round off to - 5
Seahawks 232 pf 149 PA + 83 points divide by 9 = + 9 . 251 round off to +9
ok when you have a negative # vs a +number you add them together to get point to point difference between two teams so - 5 + a +9 = 14 points which will be about margin of victory
So now wee look at Falcons getting two players back on offense both WR's line dropped 2 points from + 6 1/2 to + 4 1/2 I have 6 on my pool so i capped that number
Falcons are now + 1 Seahawks are + 3 but as a pckem Seahawks were + 4 points now they are + 2 points! See that plus 2 points this will be close to final margin of victory.
ummmmmmm both teams Played Bucs already Seahawks hit trap game at home after two div. wins fell flat on thier face and got taken by a rookie qb and had to over come a huge DD deficit to win in OT this type of game exausts both teams for next week and
OK back to more math so we add the +1 to + 3 now we have 4 points thats a huge differnce here from the 14 points above 10 points off ... now i go look at My chart system ATS results from week to week.
Falcons two straight negatives ATS - 11.5 and - 15 an honest team 2-6 ATS and s/u
Sehawks Vegas adjusted from last year 4- 5 ATS 8 -1 s/u last year they were 6-3 ATS 5-4 s/u at this point
Seahawkstwo str8 negatives - 8 points ATS and - 12 points ATS
so only one team goes above the 0 line unless it's a push which is impossible when you have a 1/2 point line rarely happens at 5 or 4 or 6 points most common pushes are happening at 3 pts the most in all lined games 7 is 2nd in NFL then of course 10 14 17
so the right side here we know is Falcons because seattle is one bad team playing east early games
DONT go BY week 1 - 3 pt at panthers Panthers are Bad bets in home openers normally favored and lose $ or game
Next of course YOU must look at schedules to spot trap games .Schedule traps as Seattle walked into last week Beat Cards - 6 @ zona on thurs 34-22 Won at Rams by 5 points as a huge 11. 5 chalk ok fer sure Seahawks aint looking ahaed to anybody Vikings next then bye week get saints at home on MNF and boy do these birds stay on Vacation after byes I'll let you know that team trend when it comes up on 12/2
Falcons cannot afford to look ahaed to any body they only have 2 wins and are just about out of playoff race behind Saints and Panthers
Falcons win this game s/u
woooo boy poor vikings next week @ Seahawks :facepalm: 45 - 10 win for seat.
Sometimes me thinks vegas is on crack pipe i mean tossing money at us
:0071
for instance 49ers get ears handed to them at Seahawks 29-3 home - 11 vs The Colts ???? yep lost again 27-7
ooooooooooo the sucker lines too Colts win huge +3 vs Seattle 34-28 MNF @ Chargers - 1 point LOL lost the game 19-9
Colts are in that trap game WON @ texans last week had to overcome trplie TD defecit in 4th quarter won that quater 15-0 now - 12 vs Rams with Titans up next on thurs btw in case you forgot Jeff was HC in Colts div with Titans for years just about same team and stadium hasn't Changed
Pagano has no idea of fischers trick plays I see it happening the second biggest upset this year
KC week 1 - 3 1/2 WIN @ Jags 28-2 whole square world gets knee jerk reaction hamers kc at home - 2 1/2 - 3 /12 vs Cowboys yup you fooking ate that lollipop while i calmly walked to corner asked what line was Tom says to me Chiefs - 4 i handed him 200 cash GIVE me Cowboys and smile the whole game Cowboys easy cover lost by 1 point 17-16
another sucker line Chiefs win huge vs raiders 24-7 - 6 1/2 vs Texans ooooooooo boyyyyyy repeat score exact vs Cowboys win game 17- 16 how's dem lollipops taste?
Panthers win huge + 1 vs NYG 38-0 go on bye week at Cardnials - 3 hmmmmmmmmmmm i had trouble with this game week 5 but circled cards as a pck and panthers got ears handed to them 22-6 wheeeeeeeeewwwwwwww (insert gif hand wiping sweat off forehead )
Also remember when you see some one cry FIXED games in NFL say was it because YOU lost the BET!
Yeah in College happens all the time BUT Vegas ain't making the fixes it's within team players betting on other side , the kids booking games on campus hand out couple $100 to QB ..... punter kicker RB qb or outside cash influence HC phone rings guy says look your a fucking huge favorite 28 points win the game by 21 you still look good
In NFL these are Millionaires on the field and no body knows who the refs are until announced on field
they are unapproachable by Rules of NFL if any REF is spotted talking to outside known bookies or that type of illegal operator ......but it can happen without them being spotted still what about the other refs ? and Instant replay also how da fook you going to pay any player or HC who is paid millions already how can you offer up $100,000 to 3 players to cough up ball at wrong time ?
or even $2000 per player
Yeah i had arguments with other losers crying FIX all the time I simply said get me hard evidence of a fix being made not some non call by ref or a bad penalty call or becuse a Jack off player tautned other team etc....
OK games are on have a great day
