How to play Props

[Senor Capper]

January 30, 2004



by Brian Gabrielle VI


You can bet on just about everything when it comes to the Super Bowl, including which team will score first, which team will score last, how many sacks, which QB will complete the most amount of passes, half time lines and totals and even the opening coin toss itself. These types of situational bets are referred to as 'propositions'.

The key to winning prop bets is no different than winning point spread and total bets. The onus is on the handicapper to find the 'true odds' and compare them to the odds offered. When looking for these 'true odds' the rule of thumb is very much the same.

Keep it simple.

Just because there's a multitude of minutia to wager on, doesn't mean we need to mine the minutia to find the answers. Almost every winning prop bet will stem from the big answer itself, which team will win the game?

Let's break it down prop-by-prop and get you on the highest percentage plays whether you are rooting for the Panthers or the Patriots this Sunday.

Coin Toss

This is an easy one. The only losers here are those making the bets and the only winner is the house. It's a true 50/50 prop with an unbeatable vig built in. Betting this prop would be a bad way to start the day no matter who you're cheering for.

Receiving the Kick

See 'coin toss'. Once again, no matter how you bet this prop, it's the wrong way. There are greener pastures ahead. In fact, we'll save a bit of time right here and toss in all the 50/50 game starting nonsense. First play from scrimmage, first time out, first challenge, first sack, first down, first turnover, wide left, wide right etc.

In examining the prop bets, we're going to keep our focus to those props which are tied in to the overall outcome of the game and in the macro-management of the point spread & total.

One of the most interesting plays this weekend from a handicappers perspective is the Quarter Totals. The numbers opened as;

1st Quarter Over/Under 7.5 2nd Quarter Over/Under 13 3rd Quarter Over/Under 7.5 4th Quarter Over/Under 10

Game Total 38

These numbers are obviously picked with the Game Total divided up amongst the quarters, circling the key numbers 7, 10 and 13. However, they are flawed from a statistical point of view, as many football numbers are. Because the frequency of the numbers 3 and 7 being scored, football "averages" are not similar to any other sport. Still, when approaching numbers, posted odds must be quasi-consistent with true odds.

When it comes to Super Bowls, 46 is the medium number. There have been 37 Super Bowls played and the average combined score of those 37 games is 46 points. But that doesn't account for the trend towards higher scoring Super Bowls, as the big game has averaged 53 points per game over the past 11 years, including the 69 point explosion featuring 48 points the defensive Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season and a 34 point outburst from maybe the best defensive team in NFL history, the Super Bowl Ravens. In fact, in a real contrary twist, the two lowest scoring Super Bowls in recent times both featured the St. Louis Rams and the most explosive offenses in NFL history. So, some real mixed messages coming over the last 11 seasons.

More glaring however, is the quarter lines, which are not at all consistent with the history of the game, either recent or historic.

2004 Line Average Score L37 L11

1st Q 7.5 1 Q - 9.0 11 2nd Q 13 2 Q - 12.7 12.5 3rd Q 7.5 3 Q - 11.0 13.5 4th Q 10 4 Q - 13.3 16

As you can see, there is quite a disparity between the offered odds and true odds, or at least, the historic precedent. Were I making the numbers, I would be more inclined to use 7.5 for the first quarter and then balance the remaining quarters at 10.5, which still accounts for the combination of 3's and 7's typical of football while recognizing the trend to higher scoring Super Bowls. Nonetheless, for handicappers, there is certain overlay in Super Bowl Quarter lines.


Another interesting way to bet the total is as follows;

WHICH HALF WILL THERE BE MORE POINTS SCORED:

FIRST HALF -0.5 EVEN SECOND HALF +0.5 -120

The team to score first is 26-11 in Super Bowl history. That's a pretty high percentage number which can turn the tables on the house in a hurry if you have the right team picked to win the game. Especially if you believe that team to be Carolina, as per the following prop offered through LVSC;

SUPERBOWL XXXVIII: TEAM TO SCORE FIRST / FINAL RESULT

CAR. SCORES 1ST, WINS GAME 3/1 CAR. SCORES 1ST, LOSES GAME 2/1 N.E. SCORES 1ST, WINS GAME 1/2 N.E. SCORES 1ST, LOSES GAME 5/1

Obviously no value there for New England bettors, but Panther players can get a 3:1 return which is much better than the +190 offered on the straight moneyline. So if you believe Carolina will win, then this prop is for you, considering the winning team scored first 71% of the time.

If you like New England to score first & win the game there is a better prop out there, also offered by LVSC;

WILL THE TEAM THAT SCORES FIRST, WIN THE GAME?

YES -190 NO +165

A bit of a sucker bet for those who believe the Panthers will score first & win, trading in +300 for -190. However, a better avenue to wager for those who feel New England will score first & win. Keep an eye peeled for these tricky takes on the same prop and make sure you're getting the best price.

Or, eliminate the end result and use the percentages to secure the bet early on the following prop;

TEAM TO SCORE FIRST IN SUPERBOWL XXXVIII:

CAROLINA PANTHERS +155 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -175

Of course, shopping your lines is always recommended, evidenced by the attractive prices for New England bettors posted at BoDog Sportsbook on the same prop;

Carolina +120 New England -160

This is by far the best spin on this prop for those who like New England to win the game, however, if you like New England to score first & win you're better off confining your bets to Pats -6.5 at -110, considering the team who scores first also wins and covers 71% of the time.

One cannot underline the importance of early game success enough, as Super Bowl comebacks are very rare. There have been just 7 occasions where the team trailing at the half has come back to win the game and only once in 37 Super Bowls have we seen a tie at the half. The norm is wire-to-wire wins. The team leading at half time has gone on to win the Super Bowl on 29 of 37 occasions - 78% of the time. That makes the double props always appealing - no matter which team you like to win the game. This season the double from LVSC reads as follows;

SUPERBOWL XXXVIII: DOUBLE RESULT (1ST HALF/GAME):

CAR. WINS 1ST HALF, WINS GAME 5/2 5/2 CAR. WINS 1ST HALF, LOSES GAME 3/1 3/1 N.E. WINS 1ST HALF, WINS GAME 1/2 1/2 N.E. WINS 1ST HALF, LOSES GAME 8/1 8/1 TIE 1ST HALF, CAR. WINS GAME 18/1 18/1 TIE 1ST HALF, N.E. WINS GAME 12/1 12/1

Not an attractive wager for Patriot backers but a real strong bet for those who figure the Panthers will win the game.

What is an attractive wager for Patriot backers is the 1/4 lines, listed as followed at Sportsbook.com;

1Q NE - .5/-120 2Q NE -3.0/Even 3Q NE - .5/-120 4Q NE - .5/-115

Good numbers if you fancy the Patriots to score more points but aren't crazy about laying -7. Taking the Patriots on the first, third & fourth quarters allows for a spread of just -1.5 divided up over the 3 frames. You could even hedge a first quarter New England spread bet with a first quarter Carolina moneyline bet with a return of +130, but be careful, you'll be exposed to the tie on this wager.

 

[Senor Capper]

Player Props

Player props are also tied into the final outcome. You see, the MVP will always come from the winning team, and more often than not, the MVP is also the winning QB. In fact, in 37 Super Bowls, quarterbacks have won the MVP trophy 19 times, making Tom Brady and Jake Delhomme better than 2-1 bets in this situation. That explains why Tom Brady is the oddsmakers choice to win the award at 7/4 but lends a terrific deal of value to Panther backers, as Delhomme is getting dissed down at 5/1 - not even the favorite on his own team. That said, a defensive player has won the award in 2 of the last 3 Super Bowls, making Reggie Manning, Jr. a real live dog at 22-1, considering his play in the NFC Championship game.

But for Pats bettors it's hard to argue with Brady as the bet. He already owns a Super Bowl MVP trophy and a win here would put him in pretty elite company, joining Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana - all QB's - as the only two-time winners in NFL history.

There's an interesting option on this prop to take 2 or more players at 11-1. However, to date it's happened just once in 37 Super Bowls, or, 37/1. That makes betting on 2 or more Players to share the MVP a great bet for books and a terrible bet for players. In fact, if ever there was a case for 2 or more players sharing the trophy it was last season when you could have grabbed any number of Bucs defensive players to share the trophy, and the fact they passed on that opportunity tells us that shared honors is not what the NFL is after. Pass on the tie.

There are also interesting numbers posted on which player will score the first TD. Stephen Davis is the current favorite at 5/1, while Antowain Smith leads all Patriots at 13/2. However, a running back has scored the first TD just twice in the last 9 Super Bowls (including last season, Mike Alstott, the favorite at 4/1). A receiver is the most likely candidate to score the games first TD. That has been the case in 22 of 37 Super Bowls, and 18 of those 22 times, the team who scored the first TD went on to win the game.

That creates an interesting situation where one could blanket the New England receivers, Troy Brown 10/1, Deion Branch 10/1, David Givens 10/1, David Graham 12/1 and Christian Fauria 12/1 and create the equivalent wager of 2/1 on a New England TD to be the first score of the game. OR, one could just bet the team prop New England TD pass at 3/1 as the first scoring TD of the game, securing a better payout and include the running backs in the equation as well. So again, different ways to bet the same props. Make sure you're betting wisely and getting maximum value.

 

[Senor Capper]

Super Bowl trends and tips

Super Bowl trends and tips

January 29, 2004
Chris David VI




The pro football season concludes Sunday at Super Bowl XXXVIII from Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. This year?s event has New England squaring off against Carolina in the finale.



Currently, oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants have the Patriots listed as seven-point favorites, with the total marked at 37 1/2.



The Super Bowl is known as the biggest single sports gambling day of the year. An estimated $70 million will be legally bet at Nevada casinos on Sunday's game, while some experts have claimed that $4 billion will be bet illegally through office pools, offshore accounts and local bookmakers.



Gambling on the Super Bowl is business for some individuals and entertainment for others. Whether you drop dimes on the big game, or you buy a couple boxes at the local pub, everybody has some kind of action on the final number.



When 6:25 p.m. EST rolls around this Sunday, you can be assured that you?ll here a cheer or moan, when referee Ed Hochuli says, ?Heads or Tails?.



Let?s be honest, most gamblers are squares. I don?t think the casinos in Las Vegas would still be standing if the public hit at a 60-70 percent clip. Not everybody has the time to do the homework or really wants to. Some people like it as a hobby and others do it for a living. Either way, every game in every sport has an angle. Breaking down those angles can take time.



Fortunately for myself, I do have free time. One angle I use in handicapping is trends, which provides you with information that has happened in the past.



Since this is Super Bowl XXXVIII, we?ve got some solid information to dissect.



AFC vs. NFC:



The NFC holds a 21-16 straight up edge over the AFC. However, that number has tightened a little bit against the spread. The NFC is 18-6 ATS, with three pushes. However, the AFC has gone 4-3 SU and an impressive 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.



Favorite vs. Underdog:



If you?re looking to make a money-line play on the game, perhaps you should look for value. The favorite has gone 24-13 SU and 19-15-3 ATS. An upset is very possible, but the chalk has still been winning outright at a 65 percent clip. Check out this stat! Only five times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the number. This number includes two pushes, including St. Louis? recent 23-16 victory over Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV as a seven-point favorite.



Over vs. Under:



Oddsmakers didn?t start creating totals until 1982 when San Francisco and Cincinnati clashed in Super Bowl XVI. Sure enough, this game was the only total landed on the closing number of 47, as the Niners beat the Bengals, 26-21. In the other 21 contests with a total, the fans have gotten to see some fireworks. The ?over? is a solid 14-7 (66%).



Dome vs. Grass:


I?m not going to go out and say that this matchup is being played in a dome, however the roof at Reliant Stadium is expected to close for kickoff, considering it only takes seven-minutes to keep God?s eyes out. The favorite has the edge indoors, going 7-3-2 both SU and ATS. The game didn?t speed up too much, with the ?under? prevailing at a 3-4-1 in games with totals.



If you?ve been following my articles, then I?m sure you read the Championship game piece. Seven years and counting, at least one visitor has gone on the road and not only covered but won the game outright. Carolina kept that trend going this year with a victory over Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field.



Also, three years and counting now, the team that has won on the road in their Championship game, has also won the Super Bowl.



Folks, these numbers are just numbers. You could try to ride the wave, or you could break the wave. Just remember, ?Trends aren?t always your friends."

 

[THE HITMAN]

Good work Senor, thanks.