HSF Degen Week 1 & NCAA (Aug 23-25)

[Riff-Raff]

Not exactly sure where the summer went but decided to step in and post a few plays to get the season started (hopefully in the right direction).

*Big Disclaimer--Obviously, you aren't going to get rich betting HSF (which explains the Degen title I always preface but you can make some money by decent open parlays that if you pick your spots right can earn you a little scrap. Unfortunately, it doesn't take much to move the lines so I can't guarantee you will get a great number but I will try to post earlier if something sticks out.

Those who have followed me know that I make my living wagering on smaller conferences and D2 games that tend to be off the radar. That's not to say that I don't wager on D1 games, I do, but my larger wagers are usually halftime plays where there is obvious value.

Anyway, good luck to all of you this season, hopefully it will be a lucrative one.

8/23 Mallard Creek, NC 57'
Dutch Fork, SC -22'

Mallard Creek Mavericks and Dutch Fork Silver Foxes kick off the ESPN Showcase on Friday, and it's shaping up to be a good one as both programs come in Ranked 1 respectively in each of their States Pre-Season Rankings. Mallard Creek out of Charlotte, NC was bounced fairly early from their state playoffs last season, so there it was a bit of a surprise that the Mavs took an early seat in the 2nd round, seeing their undefeated season go up in smoke. Meanwhile, Dutch Fork (Irmo, SC) cruised to a 13-0 season and are the reigning 5A State Champs.

Mallard Creek has averaged 13 wins per season over the past decade, and won the State Crown in 2013, 2014, and 2015. HC Mike Palmieri is in his 12th season with a respectable 138-25 record. The team play in the toughest classification in North Carolina 4AA, and arguably the toughest conference, I-Meck 4A)....Mavs return 14 starters (8 Off/6 Def) from that 10-1 team so plenty of talent back on the field. Also, returns 30 letterman and the program boasts as many as 15 Football Bowl Subdivision recruits and the HC feels like this team can be special.

There is a new QB Dustin Noller (transferred in from Rock Hills Northwestern High School), where he passed for more than 5,000 yards w/45 TDs in 2 seasons. This past summer, the Mavs won a couple of prestigious 7-on-7 Tournaments, so the new QB seems to be adapting well to his receivers. Transfer RB/WR Quasean Holmes (608 yards rushing w/11 TDs) was All-SW4A last season. The O-Line is big and strong and has great depth and experience. The Defense is a strength, with All-State Sr LB Trent Simpson (6'3" 225) (Auburn commit) and DE Quentin Williams (6'5 235 lbs) (Miami bound) and DB Jaidyn Davis (multiple offers) leading the effort. HC M Palmieri has had only 1 season with fewer than 10 wins (9-3 in 2016).

Dutch Fork is hanging on the cusp of a couple of National Pre-Season Rankings, and is always a force. They have won State Championships for the past 3 years and in 2013. Besides being a the reigning SC 5A State Champs, they have won 41 of their last 42 games. HC Tom Knotts receives accolades as a top field general and even the community thinks he has done a fantastic job. They are favored to win their 4th consecutive State Crown, and by looking at last seasons scores, there wasn't anyone who even challenged the program. The Silver Foxes did lose some very good talent to graduation, including the Top RB and key spots on both D and O Lines, so the HC will have to reload. QB Ty Olenchuk is back (heading to Clemson to play Baseball *Silver Foxes won State last season) but has some targets that include WR Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee commit) and RB Ron Hoff is very talented. Only 4 starters return on Offense and 5 Defense. The OL is very inexperienced and doesn't have much depth. The team may take a few games to jell, but there is little to think that the team will continue to roll and add to the 25 game win streak.

Thoughts: The word on the street is that Dutch Fork is also dealing with the some key injuries, but I haven't been able to ascertain to what extent nor can I pinpoint the cost. The line opened around -21' and has bounced around some but I really don't understand how Dutch Fork is this big of fav considering the talent Mallard Creek has back. I've kinda been dragging my tail but made a couple of wagers on Mallard Creek @ +22'. Obviously, I wish I had a better gauge to compare to but these two were set to lock horns last year, but a freak Lightning Storm hit and because Dutch Fork has a very strict rule that no games can be played on a Sunday (remember the Sabbath 😉) the game was canceled after both teams had retreated to the locker room for several hours. Both Coaches were bitterly disappointed, but that's Mother Nature. At any rate, I'm pretty comfortable with this many points and it is my 2nd bet of the young season.

2 Units on Mallard Creek +22' WIN...
*I can't get a read on the total and from what I can tell, it hasn't budged.

 

[hawkeye]

gl this year
I think you mean -22'???

 

[Riff-Raff]

gl this year
I think you mean -22'???

Hey Hawk, thanx for pointing out my faux pas but I wrote the wrong team down not the points x07:

These Carolina teams sound like each other lol 😂

Hope all is well and that you have a great year.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Play #2

6:30 pm

St Thomas Aquinas (Ft Lauderdale, FL) 53
De La Salle -8'

Two heavyweights going at it, which really caught me off guard as I wasn't aware De LA Salle had scheduled any out of state comp back in April, when I was looking at their schedule. Not only that but the Spartans have kinda put their heads in the sand in the HC Justin Alumbaugh years after legendary HC Bob Ladacoeur retired after the 151 game win streak got snapped. I realize that some might object to my relative antipathy of the program, and it's true that De La Salle that since 2013 Spartans have scheduled at least one outside power but playing Bishop Gorman last year (on what was a down year for the Gaels doesn't impress me, although Spartans won in Las Vegas 27-21 *Footnote, Mater Dei also played Gaels and won handily 43-0. It's not that I don't respect the program and it's accomplishments (winning the "Mythical" National Championship in 1994, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003) but after Ladoceur retired with 399 victories in 2012, the program had a chance to blossom by scheduling Out of State comp that were relevant, and instead seemed to be content resting on laurels of the bygone Era while programs like St John Bosco, Centennial, and Mater Dei made a point of seeking quality out of CA comp. The results have been noteworthy, as while De La Salle has still been the gold standard of Northern California, Spartans usually end up representing the North in the Large School CA Open Bowl each year but haven't had much success. I was actually a little surprised that Spartans only lost by 14 to Mater Dei in the CA Open Bowl, but the game wasn't really as close as it ended.

So here we are with this year's version, which by all the Pre-Season hype is supposed to be the most exciting and versatile offenses in the storied history of the program. Jr QB Dorian Hale (6' 175 lbs) , will control the vaunted Veer Attack has a stable full of competent WRs to throw to which includes, 6'2" 185 lbs Sr Grant Daley, his stats aren't necessarily out of this world, but considering he only caught 22 passes but still managed 680 yards (average 31 yards per catch) the WR is the top recruit on the roster and with the newer emphasis on passing in the philosophy, he should have a great year. . Perhaps the best player on the field is RB Sr Shamar Garrett (5'8" 180 lbs) who rushed for 1,121 yards on 118 carries (8.2 yards per carry) w/9 TDs last season but is widely regarded as one of the best multi faceted combo player in the state. He returns kicks and plays both ways where his strength may be his Defense (S/CB) with 7 pics ly and 2 returned for TDs (He's also a backup QB and had 3 passes last season w/2 TDs) He is considered undersized by many upper tier D1 schools, but has interest from 5 D1 schools, including Air Force, New Mexico, San Jose St, and Sac St. The Oline and Dline are a weak spot which will certainly come into play against HSF programs that are involved in the National chatter. CB Taveis Mitchell (6'2" 170 will help solidify the secondary (offers from Air Force, Howard and Seton Hall). While experience at the skill positions will be a strength, the OL is a concern. The Spartans will get away with the issue in the East Bay Mountain League but stepping out against bigger and stronger defenses will certainly test this team. 6 Offense Starters return while only 3 Def Starters are back. I do note that Bob Ladacoeur is listed as an assistant Coach and he is a remarkable OL Coach and a great motivator, so that will help.

STA (St Thomas Aquinas) is actually ranked as the #1 Team in the Nation by USA Today (but there are several Top 25 Rankings now out and its part for the course), so while the team is definitely a Top 10 program, #1 might be a stretch. STA Raiders were 13-2 ly. They have 21 players ranked 3 Stars or higher (Sr & Jr Class)........ The team has won 10 State Titles and is a feeding tube to Top D1 Schools and to the Pro ranks, too. In fact, the program is fond of pointing out that they have sent 36 players to the Pro leagues, including 16 active players, the list is long, but you'd have to be asleep not to know Nick Bosa (#2 Draft pic to 49ers and Ohio St phenom) helped lead Raiders to the 2015 Florida HSF Champ for 7A. Also notable is 3 grads that played in the Super Bowl last year (Dorsett and James White - Pats & LeMarcus Joyner for the Rams)..... Dallas WR and ESPN commentator Michael Ervin is an alum (*Donated $200,000 a year ago to the Football program for weight room and facilities). HC Roger Harriott has had great success and was 13-2 last season. The HC and an assistant coach (Torrian Wilson) were fined in May $2,500 each for a violation by the Florida High School Athletic Association for alleged recruiting violations (*Will discuss in later convo as the slippery slope continues thru the US the sanctions include the Assistant making contact to a student athlete from a rival school, in hopes of getting the player to transfer. HC Harriott has denied any involvement, but nevertheless, the program was also put on administrative probation, which as near as I can tell amounted to a slap on the wrist *The Assoc also ordered the school to provide mandatory training for ALL Coaches, so there's that.

STA is loaded at nearly every position, but it's the Ministry of Defense that gets most of the press. Watching tape of the past few years, I felt like I could've been watching a good Juco squad with the size and defensive aggressiveness displayed. 2 years ago, STA played the eventual National Champ Bishop Gorman in LV and the game was a classic 24-25 (3 OT) back and forth affair that was ultimately won by Gaels QB Tate Martell (ride to Ohio St, but transferred this year to U Miami). Last season, Raiders had 59 sacks in 14 games. Leading the D is sack specialist (6 last year) Trey Wingo, a 4-Star OLB (Florida bound) Wingo is a beast, and is on the 2019 Dick Butkus Award List, and is a 1st Team All-State Team with 12 Tackles for loss. Joining Wingo is 3 Star OLB Davon Betty & 3 Star ILB Andy Garcia. Class of 2021, 4 Star DE Tyreak Sapp (6'2" 255 lbs), 3 Star SDE Riyad Wilmot, and 3 Star weak side DE Griffin Lampton (transfer from Palm Beach Central, where he had 61 tackles, eye popping 19 for loss and 14 sacks on his way to the 3rd Team All-State Honors) (Vandy). In the secondary, 4 Star Safety Jahvonta Royal (Pitt), 3 Star CB Tyson Russell are ballers and heavily recruited........ It's futile to list all the firepower on this team, with 21 players ranked as 3 Star or better............. The Offense has been a contested QB spot between Jr Zion Turner and incoming transfer 3 Star Brady Dean (Naples First Baptist) he is the son of former Florida Star Terry Dean. Word on the street is that Zion has prevailed and will start the first game. 4 Star WR Marcus Rosemy, hauled in 858 receiving yards w/8 TDs last season as a Soph. earning 3rd Team All-State honors (Georgia) *He's regarded as one of the best WR prospects in the Country. 3 Star WR The'Andris Freeman, TE Joseph Kirchner, and Jake Ray are also being recruited. Tackle Marcus Dumervil (6'5" 305 lb) is widely viewed as a top OL in the Country too....He runs a 4.9 40 and actually looks lean in his body, with long arms and great balance. His top two schools seem to be LSU or Oklahoma, but remains to be seen where as the U of Florida is actively recruiting him, even going as far to enlist super Soph Tyreak Sapp (Hard Commit to Florida) to try and get him there. If you recognize the name, it's because his Uncle is the NFL Pass Rusher Elvis Dumervil (stand out at Louisville) also his cousin is currently playing for the Cards. Maybe the biggest question is how does a Coach get all this talent on one field at the same time..... Guess it's a nice problem to have.

When I first saw lines posted, I jumped on St Thomas Aquinas (+14) and have bet it all the way down to (+8')..........Heres the thing, as far as I'm concerned the wrong team is favored here and while I can appreciate De La Salle for scheduling this behemoth, I don't think it's going to end well for them, even though STA is traveling to the West Coast for this, I would normally calculate the logistics but STA has been doing this for a while now, and believe that their Coaching staff and Admin will have most of the wrinkles out. Aquinas is one of the premiere programs in the country and while De La Salle has their name recognition, the fact is man for man, Aquinas is better from top to bottom. Aquinas played De La Salle back in 2011 and walked away with a convincing 30-6 woodshed win. HC Alumbaugh has yanked the tapes of that 2011 contest trying to seek motivation but I'm not sure that's what I would be showing.

Aquinas lost in their State Championship game to Lakeland 33-20 and that loss still stings, and leaders on the Off/Def have stated that there will be payback in 7A. Aquinas has made it a priority to schedule top programs in State and Out and they have shown well at these games and always competitive. I hate to bet against my CA teams, but realistically, I think the best Spartans can hope for is a a hard fought 3 point win, as I certainly can't see them running away from the Raiders with that loaded D. Florida, Texas, and CA are the echelon of High School Football *With the those Catholic Schools from Wash DC, Maryland, and New Jersey also staking claim. The odds makers got this one wrong imo and I will be sprinkling the ML when/if I see one. Curiously CAL Preps website has a computer software program that you can plug in any two teams from anywhere in the country and get the result.... It predicts a 31-27 victory for Aquinas so there you go :00x33 This garners a rare 3 unit play here and I'm also liking the Under here too, as I don't think this crosses 40.

3 Units on STA +8' WIN


2 Units on the Under 51' WIN

 

[Riff-Raff]

Uh-oh....... Weather is rearing its ugly head in the Carolinas..... Game is delayed again this year in the 1st quarter.... Score is 14-7.....might be more of the same from last year :shrug:

Good news is perfect weather in Concord, CA so shouldn't be any issues with the Dr La Salle/STA game.

 

[tonypro99]

Uh-oh....... Weather is rearing its ugly head in the Carolinas..... Game is delayed again this year in the 1st quarter.... Score is 14-7.....might be more of the same from last year :shrug:

Good news is perfect weather in Concord, CA so shouldn't be any issues with the Dr La Salle/STA game.

You're info on STA is right on . They are loaded and Zion will start tonite even though they activity recruited Dean. I've been following STA for 20 years and know this program well. Good coaching should overcome the travel problems . However they are still high school kids. Hope you are right and Kudos on your High School info as it is top notch.

 

[Riff-Raff]

You're info on STA is right on . They are loaded and Zion will start tonite even though they activity recruited Dean. I've been following STA for 20 years and know this program well. Good coaching should overcome the travel problems . However they are still high school kids. Hope you are right and Kudos on your High School info as it is top notch.

Gracia, I appreciate the positive thoughts... How's your info on Deerfield and Carol City?........ How many high school programs are in the Miami area anyway? Damn, lots of schools, tremendous talent throughout.

Not easy for STA to come across country to open season but De La Salle has been getting by on their name for several years now.... They used to be tops in the HS recruiting game, especially in the Bay Area but no more.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Sat FCS Game

9 am Villanova 36
Colgate -3

I jumped on the Under 36' when the line opened and have bet it again @ 36 a few times this week... I see now 35' and 36 and still like the value as I'm having a hard time seeing these two crack 30. You had to be clueless about FCS last season not to have noticed the brand of defense the Raiders brought to the table and I made some good cash betting Colgate and the Unders. Raiders had the best statistical defense in the nation in 2018 and the Defense held FCS opponents to 29 points (3.6 ppg) in the first 9 games, pitching 5 shut-outs with a stretch of 32 scoreless quarters while the Offense was efficient scoring avr 30.1 ppg. ...... The bulk of the points given up were to FBS Army (24-14 loss, James Madison (23-20 win in the playoffs, and loss to eventual Natl Champ No Dakota St 35-0)......

Villanova would like to erase last season from the memory bank. Wildcats were completely decimated by injuries especially after to posting a upset win in the first game over Temple 19-17. Unfortunately, from there it went pretty much downhill. The strongest play from the Wildcats was its secondary with DB Jaquan Amos as a headliner and the 2018 CAA Frosh POY Christian Benford. CAA Pre-Season All-Conf Hon Mention LB Jack Wiley led the D with 9.5 tackles for loss. The secondary is going to be a strength again but HC Mark Ferrante was feeling the heat ly and decided to can both Off & Def Coordinators and bring in two new hires while scrapping the system and implementing 2 new ones. The team returns the fewest returning starters in CAA which will certainly be a work in progress. Offensively, things could be cringeworthy as 3 different QBs have been fighting for the starting nod in Spring and Summer ball, but the HC still doesn't know who will be the starter as noone has established themselves and Ferrante has indicated that possibly all 3 will see playing time tomorrow. Hardly a recipe for success. Jack Schetelich has the most experience, but he only completed 43.6% of his passes over 2 seasons and had 5 TDs against 8 Ints as he filled the void for graduated starting QB Zack Bednarczyk. Last year Red Shirt Frosh Qadir Ismail posted even poorer numbers in limited action. Transfer Dan Smith (from Campbell) is also in the hunt but reports state he struggles with consistency. Nova had no Pre-Season All-CAA 1st Team consideration as there are definitely questions at every level except the secondary.

People are questioning Colgates Defense with the loss of so many players (10 All-Conf selections) and 25 Seniors are departed. Most of the starters from the record setting D are gone, including the teams top 3 tacklers. The secondary is a real concern. But Mike LB Nick Loanelli (6 TFL and 29 solo) and DE Nick Wheeler is a 1st Team Pre-Season All-American (led Raiders with 9 sacks) *Named the Patriot League Pre-Season Defensive POY in July & DB Abu Daramy-Swaray was also named to the Pre-Season All-Conf Team so expect some leadership out of these 3. Reports from the Spring game are talking about this D not missing a step. D Coordinator Paul Shaffners is back at the helm and anybody who has ever played College ball knows that when a Coach with as much success as Shaffners brings to the table, expect continuity.

Colgate Offense will be led by returning QB Grant Brenneman who was named the Patriot League Off POY during the summer. Raiders are a grind it out mentality which was evident by Brenneman only avr 20.4 pass attempts pg in 2018. He finished with 126 of 204 passing for 1,605 yards w/6 TDs against only 4 Int. The program lost 7 WRs from their offense, so the cupboard was bar considering not one WR returned that caught a pass in 2018. Too say that the WR core is green is a major understatement. Brenneman is dangerous when he gets outside the pocket and is considered to be one of the best signal callers in the PL. and FCS. He's also a Pre-Season Payton Award candidate but the knock is he needs to improve throwing to the 2nd and 3rd Level from the pocket. He does have returning TE Nick Diaco (9 Rec for 114 yards) who will go up and get it (he's also a 1st Team All-Patriot League. and will be utilized as the rookie class of WRs settle in. Sr RB Alex Matthew's (147 yards w/5 TDs) is a Pre-Season 1st Team All-PL and will be expected to carry the load of carries behind what might be the best Offensive Lines in the FCS. Kicker Chris Puzzi (also a Pre-Season 1st teamer) hit the game winning FG for the Raiders in the playoffs against JMU and will be used a lot as I have a feeling a few drives may stall.

No doubt that Raiders margin for errors will be much smaller this season and I like them to cover tomorrow against what should be a very inept Villanova offense. I guess if you like trends, they tend to favor Nova as overall they are 4-1 in Head-to-Head matchups w/Colgate. They also have gone 32-4 (. 889)wins against teams that currently make up the Patriot League. In 2018, the CAA was 7-3 in 10 games against members of the Patriot. Wildcats open with 3 straight Patriot League opponents.

Naw, I love the Under 36 for 7 units .LOSS... Yikes Raiders give up 27 points in the 2nd Q :stfu::0032to get this shit started... Gl

 

[Riff-Raff]

1st Half Under 23 Fla/Miami (5 u) WIN

Taking a shot here expecting some offensive sluggishness out of both teams in what's supposed to be a very hot/humid day at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The oldest College Football rivalry in the State of Florida takes center stage in the showcase event of the only 2 FBS games to kick off the season. Interestingly, Miami has won 5 out of the last 6 matchups. (last being in 2013, a 21-16 ballgame).

Canes come in unranked, while Florida sits at #8. Expectations are high for the Gators and HC Dan Mullen, who led them to a 10 win season ly with returning QB Felipe Franks, who had the best in 2018 since some kid named Tebow played there. Last year, Gators were able to avr 6.8 ypp on 1st down which paid off nice dividends. Sr RB L Perine reminded people of an old #2 for the Gators (Emmit Smith) and is pretty good at slashing and getting up field in a hurry, Perine is projected as a 1st or 2nd Rd draft pick. Another player to watch is Ohio St transfer Trevon Grimes (6'5" 210 lb) WR is a big mismatch for most defenders and can play all over the field. Kid is a former STA Athlete so he's back home and will compliment his former High School teammate AL Blades Jr.

Canes have some major question marks, and nothing bigger than starting redshirt Frosh Jarren Williams, who has 1 collegiate pass completion to his name. The former 4 Star recruit from Georgia, he won the job over occasional starter N'kosi Perry. Another QB in the hunt is Ohio St transfer Tate Martell...... I was actually hoping Martell would win the job as the kid is a competitor and winner. He led Las Vegas, Bishop Gorman to their HSF National Championship a few years ago. At any rate, first year HC Manny Diaz gets to face off against his former boss when Diaz was D Coordinator for Mullen at Mississippi St. Diaz has brought in the Offensive Coordinator from Alabama, Dan Enos, to shake things up a little and bring in a more creative offense from former Canes offensive regimes.

I just think both teams might be a little tight on offense and it will more than likely come down to which QB settles in first. Of course the running game will set up the pass. I'm thinking Florida will pull away in the 2nd half but I want to watch a little to see what we are working with.

Gl.

 

[Riff-Raff]

9 am

St Frances Academy -18
Miami Central 56

The red headed step child of Baltimore, MD makes a step forward to try and covet the "mythical" Natl Champ that's on the plate but travels to Miami to play Central, who will make their own statement. Central is another Miami High School that comes in with strong credentials and a #9 National ranking. Central is in the conversation of Florida High School royalty and the Rockets have a Dynasty record of 162-37 (51-14 league) and were 11-3 last season and took an early exit from the 6A quarterfinal losing 19-15 to Northwestern. Central actually played a warm up game last week against Atlanta, Georgia power and Class 6A Georgia State Champs, Cedar Grove in what is really nothing but a glorified scrimmage and isn't factored into the regular season record but found themselves down 25-13 @ half. Evidently HC Roland Smith did some serious butt chewing as his troops surrendered an inexplicable 75 yard run with seconds left before half, but after a series of brutal, missed tackles, allowed the visitors to take a healthy lead to the locker room. Rockets evidently got the message as they scored 28 unanswered to escape with a 41-25 win.

Rockets are led by 4 Star CB Henry Gray (6'1" 170 lb Sr) and one of the most talented CBs in the country. Also emerging star, LB Roody Jean, DE/OLB Jesus Machado (6'4" 210 lb Sr) are all heavily recruited by several FBS programs. On offense, Sr QB Katravis Marsh (6'3" 185 lb) gets the keys as 3 Star QB Maurice Underwood has departed. Marsh is a transfer from American (Miami Lakes) and its his only year at Central, so he has a lot to prove. He's headed to Utah. He will hand the ball off to 4 Star all purpose RB Jr Amari Daniels. Fortunately, the backfield will be protected by one of the best OLs in the State. OL Laurence Seymour (6'2" 295 lb) is a Miami commit and a Class of 2021 phenom. This team will compete with the best in Florida as there is star power on both sides of the ball. They will be in the mix of a loaded state but opens with a blockbuster game.

Visiting Baltimore power, St Frances has quite a history. Panthers have won the State Championship in 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018. They are on a 23 game win streak outscoring opponents 477-32. Offense averaged 44.5 ppg ly and only allowed 6 in a game once. They currently hold the #2 National Ranking, and finished last season at the #4 spot. Panthers have the 4th toughest schedule as rated by MaxPreps (behind Mater Dei, CA and IMG Academy of Florida). The team returns 5 offensive starters and 6 Def starters. The roster is frankly ridiculous, with 5 players rated 4 Stars or better. On Defense, 5 Star DE Chris Braswell (Sr 6'3" 230 lbs) (Alabama) had 12 sacks as a Jr and 11 TFL, forcing 3 fumbles and returning 1 for a TD *expect him to get bigger in college and moved to a OLB to focus on rushing the passer (Saban is salivating)(He is a member of the USA Today All-USA Pre-Season Football team. Jr DE Demon Clowney is a 4 Star (6'4" 225 lb) (LSU) *If his name is familiar it's because he is the 2nd cousin of Jadeveon Clowney (the DE picked 1st overall in the 2014 Draft by the Houston Texans)......... 4 Star DT Dominick Bailey (Tenn), 3 Star Nikhail-Hill Green (Michigan) are just a few of the players that should be one of the most talented Defenses in the country. 11 players ranked 4 Stars or better and several more 3 Star athletes and 2 Star. Secondary has 2 4 Star CBs.......

On offense, 4 Star RB Blake Corum is the #10 ranked RB in the US (2020 Michigan commit) and 2 sport phenom, Jordan Toles has a full ride to LSU and will play both football and basketball.... QB is Soph John Griffith and protecting him will be a very talented group of 4 Star OL, going to several FBS colleges....

If you are wondering about all this talent, it's a little like the diagram that IMG blueprinted but the beginnings are much more humble. The school was founded in 1828,and is more than a decade older than the oldest historically Black College in America. It was first established by 4 Nuns to teach the children of slavery how to read the Bible. Located in a poor neighborhood to serve the poor. The benefactor is a man named Francis Poggi. He is white but grew up being taught to share what he had with those less fortunate. As he went into his teens, his size and athleticism caught the attention of Coaches at a predominantly white prestigious Gilman School. Poggi didn't have the money to pay the tuition but was brought in on scholarship by the Principal of the school for football. He was good enough to play in College and ended up at Pitt coached by Jackie Sherrill and played on the 1979 team with Dan Marino, Mark May, Russ Grimm, Hugh Green, etc. He never pursued an NFL career but went into coaching. He coached as an assistant at Brown, the Citadel, and then Temple (with NFL Coach Bruce Arians).....He married and his Father in Law taught him the Stock Market. He learned to speak the language of Wall Street and was given a stake by that Father in law, and managed to do well and the rest is History. He grew his fund of a few thousand dollars into millions and in turn opened his own brokerage and made his clients lots of money too........ He never got away from Coaching and was offered coaching positions at Maryland and at Michigan with Harbaugh. He coached there for awhile as his son played FB there...... He wrote St Frances a $60,000 check in 2008 to help build a football program as he saw great need in the community..... St Frances, has a student population of 92% Black. Nearly 80% live at poverty level. Since the original investment, Poggi now underwrites the Tuition of 45 St Frances players as well as supplements the salaries of 7 full time teachers.... The school sits surrounded by abandoned and burned out row houses. Drug dealers use the row houses as distribution centers.... Broken glass lines the streets where the football team runs wind sprints. Discarded syringes cover the sidewalk. Bullet holes have plastered the stained glass windows of the 100 year old chapel. Now, thanks to Poggi, the school has a 100% graduation rate and more than 90% go on to college (w/83% earning at least a Bachelors Degree). Poggi has bought a new weight room, training room and football equipment.......

In 2018, all the schools in the MIAA league backed out of playing St Frances citing player safety issues and accusing St Frances of violating the Player Transfer Policy. Poggi has built 2 Townhouses to house players that are homeless. What's interesting is that as early as 2015, Panthers had a winless conf record. Everyone wonders why there was no safety concern when the team was routinely beaten by MIAA rivals in previous years.... When journalists asked the league schools for documentation of safety issues and player injuries, nothing was received. It appears the members of the MIAA (which are largely White Catholic Schools) have more sinister agendas. Perhaps more socioeconomic, racial and cultural bias. The schools all cite the Panthers willingness to recruit Jr and Sr transfers that are college ready players from States as far away as Florida (*in 2018, more than 9 transfer (3 from out of state) were on St Frances roster.

So this is the year that St Frances really made the transition to more of a National team. Last year, at the last minute had to put together in short order, a schedule that included teams from as far as Canada. This year, they will be playing in Florida, California, New Jersey, and Richmond, VA. St Frances make up is 70% from Balt, a Dozen from elsewhere in Maryland, a Dozen from out of state (Delaware, Pennsylvania, Florida) St Frances has 80 players on its roster (70% of the school population). Poggi and his crew has been accused of poaching and scouting youth leagues and other schools. Poggi still fumes about the MIAA schools ducking St Frances as the timing of the pull out was an attempt to sabotage their whole season. People call the program the "Best High School Football Team that money can buy"... Poggi agrees and has no qualms about it. He does love his players though.... HC is listed as Henry Russell (but Poggi is also on the staff and pulling all the strings)

So where does this leave the St Frances vs Miami Central game tomorrow morning? It's the only game featuring two teams ranked in the Top 10 in the Nation. Some feel this game may be one of the best games of the year. People seem to be buying the hype as the line opened -14 and has gone up to -19.......Poggi has made no excuses and he wants to be crowned National Champs and frankly if the program can survive the steeple chase of a schedule that it has laid out, I would be happy to back that sentiment. St Frances is going to spend half it's schedule in Florida, playing Central, IMG, Norland, Venice, American Collegiate Academy (all from Florida), Mater Dei (CA), Simeon (Chicago), St Joseph (NJ) to walk that minefield would be very impressive. However, let's not throw in the towel yet. Central is no slouch and after waking up last week to take apart Georgia State Champs (6A) in the 2nd half, I think people are drinking too much of the St Frances Kool-aid. Central has a history of responding on the big stage and me thinks +19 is a nice spot. Not sure Central will win but think they can stay close with a great defense. Success is a zero sum game.... If you have it, they aren't getting it.... Gl St Frances but my money is on the Home team.

2 Units on Central +19LOSS *That game definitely answered a few questions for me

*Lean to the Under here, two great Defenses should make it a good one.

**Anybody interested on the History of the St Frances Football Program should check out ESPN Documentarys... Very interesting.

 

[Riff-Raff]

1 pm Deerfield Beach 39'
Carol City -7'

So Carol City opened at -17' and someone(s) were smart and bet Deerfield down to where the line sits at the moment. I was going to pass on this play but after further review, I have reconsidered.

Deerfield is loaded. Bucks are as talented as any team in their league. What's curious is Deerfield is one of the rare public schools in Florida that can actually compete and match athletes with most private schools in Florida. They have several D1 players but none are as talented as 4 Star RB Jaylan Knighton (Sr 5'10" 195 lbs) he is considered one of the Top RBs in the Nation. QB Derhon King was a transfer last year and is a proven winner. Sr WR Bryce Gowdy (6'2" 205 lb) (Georgia Tech), Couple of 3 Star OL are the prototypical Trench Monsters that should open holes for Knighton....... 4 Star WR A Hemmingham is another transfer (actually he's back after transferring to Park Vista)... The Defense also has several highly recruited players.

Carol City plays in 4A and is a very respected program. As good as Deerfield is, I didn't give them much of a chance as Carol City Chiefs won a State Title in 2016 and last year they were 9-3 (but two of the losses were forfeited losses (which they had actually won and very convincingly) but lost to Central in the State Playoffs after beating Central 3 weeks before. WR Thainu Jones-Bell (Sr 5'11 190 lbs) (Alabama) is explosive. Sr QB Cedquan Smith has made two switches (transfers) He led Miramar to a playoff berth last season but came to the Chiefs after the State Career Passing Leader graduated (Daniel Richardson to CMU)..... JR RB Katravis Geyer (5'8" 180 lbs) is a Class of 2021 recruit. Sr WR Jovan Ferguson is a 3 Star playmaker. Like Deerfield, Carol City has a deep Defense that will be one of the best in the state.

This matchup boils down to the Best of "Dade County" vs Best of "Broward County".... Carol City is still licking its wound from it being manhandled by IMG Academy 41-22. Despite the loss they are still considered one of the best in the state. Deerfield didn't impress offensively last week in their pre-season tilt against Atlantic High only managing 10 points in a 12-10 loss. Transfer QB Michael Pratt is a recent transfer from Boca Raton where he passed for 1,208 yards w/12 TDs and ran for 447 yards but will have to beat out King who has the higher rating. At any rate, makes you wonder why with one of the best RBs in the State, how they only managed 10 points last week........ Carol City will bring an equal amount of D to this contest........ I think Carol City pulls out a close one but not too happy with the chalk.... I do feel the Under warrants a look though as Carol City also is dealing with the loss of their long time HC that split at the start of practice with the HC from Booker T Washington... Both coaches were offered positions on a new College Football Program that is just getting under way....... This certainly hurts the continuity and players have to be questioning some things....... Just think this could be a low scoring affair as whoever steps in to call the Offense at Carol City will be questioned if things don't roll quickly......

Under 39' Deerfield Beach/Carol City WIN

*Lean to Deerfield + the points.

 

[BASON]

Great stuff as usual Riff. My father is an ex-high school coach in MD and friends with Poggi. Great man that has truly changed the lives of many young men. Love that his is unapologetic for what he has done. Very unselfish and generous man. This team is extremely motivated to prove to the country that they are the best team in the nation. I fully expect them to do that this year and am excited to see them play today.

Will be trailing your unders.

All the best this season!!

 

[tonypro99]

Gracia, I appreciate the positive thoughts... How's your info on Deerfield and Carol City?........ How many high school programs are in the Miami area anyway? Damn, lots of schools, tremendous talent throughout.

Not easy for STA to come across country to open season but De La Salle has been getting by on their name for several years now.... They used to be tops in the HS recruiting game, especially in the Bay Area but no more.

I like the points in both Fla. games today. Travel is minimal for Deerfield here and they have good receivers.
Central is very Physical and fast.Don't think Central will win but they should stay in it.
Dade and Broward counties are loaded with Division 1 talent.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Great stuff as usual Riff. My father is an ex-high school coach in MD and friends with Poggi. Great man that has truly changed the lives of many young men. Love that his is unapologetic for what he has done. Very unselfish and generous man. This team is extremely motivated to prove to the country that they are the best team in the nation. I fully expect them to do that this year and am excited to see them play today.

Will be trailing your unders.

All the best this season!!

Wow, St Frances is loaded..... Those kids looked like a Juco program.... Central had no answer...... Excited to see how they do against Mater Dei and IMG.

Yeah, this Poggi guy has a great heart..... Like to see that kind of thing....

Something I wasn't aware of... Dematha Stags HC Bill McGregor is back at the helm at the school after a legendary career of being the HC there for almost 3 Decades....... Evidently, he spent almost 8 years Coaching at St Frances and Gilman, so I guess he knows Poggi very well... The guy is a legend compiling a record of 278-40-3 (he had over 400 of his players go on to Div 1 schools and a few made it to the NFL) He is back after replacing former HC Elijah Brooks (who took a job coaching RBs at Maryland)... Hope they can give Bosco a good game.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Dematha 56'
St John Bosco -22'

Real quick, Bosco is currently ranked #2 Nationally while Dematha comes in at #8..... When the line opened, I bet Dematha with a +27' as I felt that the chalk was simply too much and I believe Stags can stay within 3 TDs here.

Bosco is loaded again but it's been the development of 5 Star QB DJ Uiagalei that's been the most noteworthy. The kid is big, (6'5") and has had tremendous success since taking over the reigns as a Soph....

The D is stacked again but may have some growing pains early as the team graduated a list of D1 athletes. Not too say this new roster doesn't have the same talent, but think that the Stags can get a couple of TDs in this one, and I expect the Offense to be explosive for the Braves....

2 Units on the Over 56' LOSS *Lots of opportunities but no help

 

[BASON]

DeMatha will hang in this game I think. McGregor is a great coach and they always get great athletes to come there. Smart move by MD to hire Brooks and I was surprised McGregor came back. There were a ton of coaches that wanted that job. He is close with Poggi and my father has known him for a very long time.

St. Francis's defense is about as good as I have seen in HS in a while. I certainly do not have the national knowledge you have but they are loaded. Will be surprised if they lose a game. That QB is going to be one hot commodity as he is only a sophomore.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Narbonne -14'
Buchanan 56'

I will make this short and sweet.... Narbonne is currently ranked #14 in the Nation, and is considered to have arguably the best secondary in the country with 4 Star CBs and 3 Star Safety...... 5 Star QB Jake Garcia missed 5 games last season, as he sat due to transfer violation. Still, he righted the ship (Gauchos lost 3 of first 4 games) and still put up respectable numbers (completing 75% of his passes). They are expecting big things and are the fav to win the Marine League.

Buchanan is getting a bit disrespected, and the Cross Sectional game will be a chance for Buchanan to feature their 5 Star RB, who is the #2 ranked RB in the US...... The problem is that Buchanan plays in the Central Sect of CA so the team is flying under the radar here and will put up a fight and wouldn't surprise me to pull off the upset. The game is at Buchanan. I had intended to go to the game (my Cousins Son) plays on the Varsity, but a family member is sick 🤮.......

Buchanan had a 10-3 record last year and gave De La Salle all that it could handle in a 7 point loss....... They lost in the CIF Section Semis by 1 point to Liberty.

The number opened at -6 and is now -14'..............so I grabbed the generous points.

2 Units on Buchanan +14' LOSS

 

[Riff-Raff]

Southern Columbia -15
Hammond School 65'

I wasn't going to touch this game because I felt the original line (albeit a little high) was where it should've been but the game goes in a half hour, and since the number dropped to -15 from -27', I'm jumping on the Tigers of Pennsylvania.

There is a ton of star power back from the 2A State Champs and 9 Def. Starters return. Tigers boast the #3 player in the nation, Julian Fleming, who makes his living at WR (78 catches for 1,497 yards w/22 TDs) and has a legitimate shot to break almost every PA receiving record in the State. He has a total of 4,441 yards total. Publications drool over the WR calling him a "once in a lifetime WR" Kid also doubles down playing D and had 4 Int (3 returned for TDs ly)....... RB Gauge Garcia (Michigan) has rushed for more than 6,000 yards in his high school career and will certainly break the school rushing Rec. The team has 6 offensive starters back.

Both teams are coming off State Championship Seasons ly, and Tigers have won 32 straight games and 71 consecutive regular season games. Actually, Tigers have won back to back State Championships.

Hammond School from So Carolina also won Back to Back State Championships, and have 16 overall State Championships altogether. They are on a 25 game win streak but the Skyhawks don't have the overall talent to stay close here imo..... They do have the overall #5 Ranked player in the US 4 Star DT Jordan Burch leads the D the (6'5" 260 lb) had 10 sacks and 14 TFL ly and also will line up in the backfield at TB where he rushed for 680 yards w/25 TDs in the jumbo package. He is heading to Clemson.

I think the PA High School team has an overall better team and I expect them to double down Burch while running alot of short passing and a lot of hitches, bubble screens, etc to slow Him down and suck up the Hammond DBs before taking shots down the field...... Neither teams QBs are premium QBs, but Hammonds School QB (Jackson Burch) (*Son of So Carolina HC Will Muschamp) has some very competitive DNA but curiously he hasn't had much FBS interest (although word is he just received an offer from Boston College and does have interest from a few FCS schools *Makes you wonder why Dad hasn't tried to get him to So Carolina, or maybe he has and its on the downlow) also has a few more 4 Star athletes and 3 Star, but doesn't match up well. 4 Star DE Alex Huntley (So Carolina) (6'4 285 lbs) has a lot of upside and complements Burch.

Both schools have similar pedigrees and one has to lose. I don't relish putting money on a team that travels 647 miles to get here, but the game is on Sunday and the team arrived Friday to get acclimated.... HC Jim Roth (has 35 years of Coaching experience under his belt) and during that time his overall record is 428-63-2 with 9 State Titles. He is a legend in PA Athletics.

Last month, longtime Assistant Coach Don Traugh passed away and he was loved by the players, staff, and whole community..... Tigers will certainly be using his death as their rally cry and when those types of intangibles are factored in, I expect the team to play hard.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Colombia -15 WIN

 

[Riff-Raff]

Great stuff as usual Riff. My father is an ex-high school coach in MD and friends with Poggi. Great man that has truly changed the lives of many young men. Love that his is unapologetic for what he has done. Very unselfish and generous man. This team is extremely motivated to prove to the country that they are the best team in the nation. I fully expect them to do that this year and am excited to see them play today.

Will be trailing your unders.

All the best this season!!

See Poggi is becoming quite an internet sensation by wearing a wife beater on the sidelines (he's trending) Maybe all Coaches should start wearing them, start a fad :scared

 

[BASON]

Fat guys will do all they can to stay cool!!!

That is also how he is.

Southern Columbia is one impressive program. They never scare you taking the field, but they just play great fundamental football. The high school where I grew up is in the same class as them in PA. Think they have gone undefeated the last 3 years and can not even get to the Championship game. PA state titles are hard to come by and they are dominating. It is impressive year after year.