BEGINNING MONDAY JULY 28
Arizona at Florida (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Marlins have split their first four games with the surging Diamondbacks, but have yet to face either Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling. However, Florida has been playing good baseball for almost a month and has a pair of hot pitchers in Dontrelle Willis (+$720, 2.67 ERA) and Brad Penny (3.00 ERA and 7.8 H+W ratio last two starts) of its own. Let?s hope they don?t face each other. PREFERRED: Schilling/ Johnson/Willis/Penny.
BEGINNING TUESDAY JULY 29
Los Angeles at Philadelphia (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
In a series in which both teams possess excellent pitching staffs and less than dynamic offenses, the game by game match ups are more significant than usual. The Dodgers have been simply awful vs. righthanders (-$1890, averaging only 3.4 RPG) and that shouldn?t change against Kevin Millwood, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla or Brian Duckworth. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Dodgers.
San Diego at Pittsburgh (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The Pirates broomed (+$335) the Padres in San Diego as Kip Wells, Jeff D?Amico and Kris Benson each posted a victory. But only those same Padres and the Brewers have fewer wins at home than Pittsburgh (21-28, -$805), so we?re reluctant to lay wood here. And, we?re equally reluctant to back a team that is 29-53 (-$435) as a dog and 17-32 on the road. PREFERRED: None.
St. Louis at Montreal (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
Coming off what had to be a tough series with the Braves, the Expos pitching staff may not be ready for a Cardinals? offense that leads the NL in BA and is second in home runs and RBIs. The top three Expos? starters (Livan Hernandez, Tomo Ohka and Javier Vazquez) are a combined 4-8 with an ERA well over 5.00 the last three and a half years. PREFERRED: Cardinals in all games.
Colorado at Cincinnati (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
It?s hard to get too excited about a traveler that plays as poorly as the Rockies, but the Reds are no bargain at home and even less inviting (8-14, -$1000) as chalk. Play against the Reds? Danny Graves (1-4 at home with a 6.52 ERA and .286 BAA) and on the Rockies? Shawn Chacon, the only Colorado current starter making a profit (+$215) on the road. PREFERRED: Chacon/Rockies vs. Graves .
Milwaukee at NY Mets (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The rebuilding Mets are beginning to resemble the Brewers who have been on that band wagon for what seems like 25 years. Alomar, Burnitz and Benitez have all been traded, Mo Vaughn and Mike Piazza are still on the DL and Cliff Floyd is in and out of the line up with a bad leg. The Brewers are profitable on the road vs. righties (+$1095) and should be able to handle an offense as weak as NY?s. PREFERRED: Brewers vs. righthanders.
Houston at Atlanta (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
Atlanta rolled (3-0, +$365) through Houston in late April/early May and, the way they play at home (33-13, +$1625), there?s no reason to think they won?t win at least a pair in the ?Ted?. Top billing goes to one of the best acquisitions of the year, Russ Ortiz. The Bravos are 15-5 (+$835) in his starts and 9-2 (+$545) at home. We?ll also want to go against Jeriome Robertson and Ron Villone as Atlanta is a sizzling 18-4 vs. portsiders (+$1480) averaging 6.3 RPG. PREFERRED: Ortiz /Braves vs. lefthanders.
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The Cubs got a pair of superlative outings from Kerry Wood (six innings, two runs) and Mark Prior (six innings, one run) in California and as a result took two of three from the Giants in late April/early May. But, the Cubs have been in a major slump (lost 16 of 25) scoring as many as nine runs just once and the Giants? pitching staff is just as good and its offense is a lot better. PREFERRED: SF vs. Estes, Clement & Zambrano.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The Devil Rays jumped (4-2, +$375) all over the Blue Jays a couple of months ago before Toronto got hot, but have lost 35 of 51 since that pair of series. With the exception of Victor Zamrano and Jeremi Gonzalez, no Rays? starter is likely to throttle the Jays? offense and we would only use either off a Toronto victory. PREFERRED: Blue Jays vs. all but Zamrano and Gonzalez off a TB loss.
Baltimore at Minnesota (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
This is the first meeting of the year between the rebuilding Orioles who are doing better than expected and the disappointing Twins who have fallen apart. The Twins, especially Brad Radke (3-5, ERA 7.58, .331 BAA) have been a so-so proposition (25-23, +$25) at home while the Orioles have been the third best underdog (+$995) in the AL. PREFERRED: Orioles vs. Radke.
Boston at Texas (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The Sox hold a 4-2 advantage over the Rangers who continue to lead MLB in the number of different starters (13) and not one of them has an ERA under 5.00 at home. However, the Rangers are a .500 team at home while the Sox are 27-23 (-$1045) on the road. Boston will be favored in each game and we?ll be backing them as long as the great Pedro stays on the sidelines. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. all but Martinez.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The surprising Royals have defeated the White Sox four of six times (+$475) and continue to be the most profitable (+$2255) team in the AL by a huge margin. It?s tempting to back at least one of Chicago?s top three starters, but the fact is that the Sox are just 15-18 (-$825) in Esteban Loiaza, Bartolo Colon and Matt Buehrle?s 33 road outings. PREFERRED: Royals in all games.
Cleveland at Oakland (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The last time these teams met in California, the A? contributed to the Indians eight-game losing streak by pinning defeats four, five and six on them. There?s a good chance that it could happen again. We?re not interested at odds approaching 3-1. PREFERRED: None.
NY Yankees at Anaheim (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The Bronx Bombers always seem to have trouble in la-la land and are just 6-7 at Anaheim since 2000. Both teams are putting up excellent numbers vs. lefthanders (NY is 15-7, +$490 and Anaheim is 12-6 at home, +$440) and are poor vs. righthanders (NY is -$1090, Anaheim is -$1070), so our preferences are obvious in this series. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. lefthanders.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 29th, 30th, 31st
The Mariners are a healthy 5-1 vs. hapless Detroit this year, but note that a profit of $250 on an 80% win ratio is nothing to brag about. The prices in this series will be ridiculous, so we?re shying away from the chalk. Seattle will have to sweep this series in order for you to make money. We?re not interested in that type of opportunity and we?re surely not interested in trying to find a needle in a haystack with the Tigers in Safeco. PREFERRED: None.
