I am going all in on UNC plus 3 versus FSU

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lowell

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This line is off. Should be UNC -1.5 or 2. FSU just lost at home to Miami and does not execute its offense well enough to put any pressure on UNC defense.
I bought two points at -155 and went all in on this game.
UNC has too much firepower for the Noles. UNC has Meeks,James,Johnson,Hicks, Herbert and JMM to handle the length of FSU. They also have the flexibility of putting Tokoto on FSU best scorer Aaron Thomas. Unless Ian Miller goes off UNC should contain the FSU offense. Miller missed three games with injury and will help FSU with his return. He scored 25 Pts in last game and being a senior will play well tonight. Ole Roy will not do this but a junk defense like Box and 1 or Triangle and 2 would shut down FSU. They have two scorers and if you stop either one it should be a W for the Heels.
UNC is eighth in country in rebounds . FSU will have hard time guarding JMM with White.
Late game free throw shooting may be problem for UNC and FSU needs this win to help their chances to make the tournament so I decided to lay the juice and buy 2 points.
UNC is playing best defense they have played in years. Cannot see FSU scoring more than 60-62 points . Not many teams can hold UNC to under 60 points.
UNC plus 1 is like having QQ and going all in .
UNC plus three (-155) is like have AA and going all in.
 
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ezpickin

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lowell said:
This line is off. Should be UNC -1.5 or 2. FSU just lost at home to Miami and does not execute its offense well enough to put any pressure on UNC defense.
I bought two points at -155 and went all in on this game.
UNC has too much firepower for the Noles. UNC has Meeks,James,Johnson,Hicks, Herbert and JMM to handle the length of FSU. They also have the flexibility of putting Tokoto on FSU best scorer Aaron Thomas. Unless Ian Miller goes off UNC should contain the FSU offense. Miller missed three games with injury and will help FSU with his return. He scored 25 Pts in last game and being a senior will play well tonight. Ole Roy will not do this but a junk defense like Box and 1 or Triangle and 2 would shut down FSU. They have two scorers and if you stop either one it should be a W for the Heels.
UNC is eighth in country in rebounds . FSU will have hard time guarding JMM with White.
Late game free throw shooting may be problem for UNC and FSU needs this win to help their chances to make the tournament so I decided to lay the juice and buy 2 points.
UNC is playing best defense they have played in years. Cannot see FSU scoring more than 60-62 points . Not many teams can hold UNC to under 60 points.
UNC plus 1 is like having QQ and going all in .
UNC plus three (-155) is like have AA and going all in.
Click to expand...

Everything you said is true...so ask yourself... Why did they set the line here??? The answer says you better seriously consider buying your bet back! :)
 
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lowell

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Not going to second guess the line. UNC has Paige and JMM who are both playing their best ball of the year.
Johnson will score points coming off the bench. Hicks had his best game of the year yesterday. LMac is due for a good 10-14 pt game. Meeks and James ought to be able to hold their own versus FSU centers.
Tokoto is best defender for UNC and he should be able to contain Thomas.
JMM got 18 shots last game and he should continue to be more assertive.
Miller for FSU may go off tonight but he also will have to work on defense stopping Paige or LMac.
Foul shooting and 3 pt defense are two concerns for UNC but they are doing a much better job in their defense of the 3pt line.
Vegas does not make many mistakes but the game reminds me of the Duke-Pitt game and Duke came away with a 15 pt victory. Vegas got that one wrong.
As a Duke fan I cannot lose. Either I win the play or UNC loses and has to face a good Duke team on a few days rest. If UNC loses I reup with 1Vice and get free juice. I am happy either way.
 
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winagainjoe

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ezpickin said:
Everything you said is true...so ask yourself... Why did they set the line here??? The answer says you better seriously consider buying your bet back! :)
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I was thinking the same when I saw this line. ALL IN! INSTA CALL. I've watched FSU play a dozen times. They are a bad team plain and simple. Carolina has some weaknesses but are certainly capable of an easy win here. SO.... WHY WHY WHY is this #+1? UNC is a public team and Vegas knows people will see six wins in a row and jump on UNC. Almost every time I feel this strong about a number (Clemson at NC St in FB being the last) it turn into a loser. GL with your play but this looks like FSU because Vegas says so.
 
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checkmate

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This is so dumb. The contrarian or Vegas trap doesn't always win just like the better team doesn't always win. I'm on unc big and Baylor big. Tired of this Vegas trap bullshit and public bets. I've played mostly faves the past 2 months and made a killing. Ask greens about that. No system is perfect. That's why they call it gambling and that's why warren buffet called gambling a tax on stupidity. Lol. So cut the noise and go heeeeeeeeels!!!! Big !!
 
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lowell

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Disclaimer- Last time I was this sure of a play was Denver in Super Bowl plus 8 points as final leg of 3 team ten point tease.
Go Heels. If you lose make it by 1 or 2 points!


Just saw line has moved to pick. Total is 143 which to me favors UNC as the play. With a total in high 130's Vegas would be saying FSU can keep game in the 60's.
 
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ezpickin

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Massissimo said:
This is so dumb. The contrarian or Vegas trap doesn't always win just like the better team doesn't always win. I'm on unc big and Baylor big. Tired of this Vegas trap bullshit and public bets. I've played mostly faves the past 2 months and made a killing. Ask greens about that. No system is perfect. That's why they call it gambling and that's why warren buffet called gambling a tax on stupidity. Lol. So cut the noise and go heeeeeeeeels!!!! Big !!
Click to expand...

You may win your wager but you are dead wrong in your analysis...this is not remotely close to Duke Pitt..they are both very good teams...FSU is not...Vegas could get plenty of UNC action making them a 4 point favorite...this line will move to UNC 1 or 2 by tipoff and vegas will make a killing...
 
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Double Two

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ezpickin said:
You may win your wager but you are dead wrong in your analysis...this is not remotely close to Duke Pitt..they are both very good teams...FSU is not...Vegas could get plenty of UNC action making them a 4 point favorite...this line will move to UNC 1 or 2 by tipoff and vegas will make a killing...
Click to expand...

Good Luck w/the 'Noles Tonight ezpickin!!! :0008
 
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Musca

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Just something to think about..

Just something to think about..

North Carolina plays Duke on the 20th. The game was re-scheduled from the snow storm.

Major sandwich game?

just devils advocate.
 
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lowell

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ezpickin said:
You may win your wager but you are dead wrong in your analysis...this is not remotely close to Duke Pitt..they are both very good teams...FSU is not...Vegas could get plenty of UNC action making them a 4 point favorite...this line will move to UNC 1 or 2 by tipoff and vegas will make a killing...
Click to expand...

Pitt 0-5 versus top 25 and 1-6 versus top 50 teams.
FSU 2-5 versus top 25 and 2-6 versus top 50.
I cannot say Pitt is a very good team when they have only beaten one tournament team (Stanford and they may play themselves out of a bid)
Noles beat 2 teams in top 25. UMass and VCU. They lost by 1 pt to Florida and by 2 points to Michigan.
I do not think there is a lot of difference between Pitt and FSU.
Good luck in your big play on FSU.Hope they win by 2 .Line has moved to UNC -1.
 
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lowell

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hawkeye said:
go with your gut--gl
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Thanks!
What is your take on the total? If one team is to score 75 points I have to think it is UNC.
If you like FSU game should go under. Do not think they want to run w UNC but they did beat them here last year and Roy left the court early leaving his walk ons to finish the game.
Over the last several years at home FSU and Miami have surprised Duke and UNC quite a few times.
 
Birdie313

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lowell said:
Thanks!
What is your take on the total? If one team is to score 75 points I have to think it is UNC.
If you like FSU game should go under. Do not think they want to run w UNC but they did beat them here last year and Roy left the court early leaving his walk ons to finish the game.
Over the last several years at home FSU and Miami have surprised Duke and UNC quite a few times.
Click to expand...

Unc was 3-0 last year vs fsu 2 beatdowns and a close game.
 
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lowell

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Birdie313 said:
Unc was 3-0 last year vs fsu 2 beatdowns and a close game.
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Have to look it up but maybe it was two years ago when Roy pulled his team off the court early and left walkons to finish the game as starters went to dressing room before game was over.
Just looked it up and it was in 2002. UNC was losing by 33 Pts and Roy took team to dressing room with 14.2 seconds to play. Later he said he forgot about the reserves he had on the floor. FSU did rush the court at the end of the game.
Hope history does not repeat itself.
 
Birdie313

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lowell said:
Have to look it up but maybe it was two years ago when Roy pulled his team off the court early and left walkons to finish the game as starters went to dressing room before game was over.
Just looked it up and it was in 2002. UNC was losing by 33 Pts and Roy took team to dressing room with 14.2 seconds to play. Later he said he forgot about the reserves he had on the floor. FSU did rush the court at the end of the game.
Hope history does not repeat itself.
Click to expand...

Yes. That game was 2 years ago when they had Marshall and Zeller. Wouldn't mind a 33 point unc victory tonight.
 
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lowell

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Birdie313 said:
Yes. That game was 2 years ago when they had Marshall and Zeller. Wouldn't mind a 33 point unc victory tonight.
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90-57 FSU. UNC was number 3 in the country.
If the Noles bring that type of effort tonight. I will be using Paypal tomorrow.
I think a 7 pm tip helps UNC. Fans would be juiced up more for 9 pm game.
 
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hawkeye

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Lowell--when I looked at lines last nite and early this am before going golfing--my mind-what is left of it--
said nothing there--never looked at it again. No good feelings at all about anything. Gun to head have
to play UNC total-??-coin flip says under--gl
 
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checkmate

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Roy Williams sux ass. No passion tonight just letting these kids sleep walk. Dean smith is rolling in his grave.
 
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