I dont usually post because this is only my 3rd year capping and I dont want to influence people who coat tail but I have had a very profitable 3rd year after loosing my first two years of sports wagering. I feel pretty good about this week. I already put my plays in because i got the lines where I want them so here they are:
NE -6 3 units
NE over 37 2 units
GB +6 1 unit
KC -3 1.5 units
7 point teasers:
NE +1/NE O 30 5 Units
NE +1/SL -.5 5 Units
NE +1/GB +12.5 2 Units
GB+12.5/SL -.5 2 Units
For fun:
4x Parly on:
NE -6
NE over 37 .5 units (pays 5 units)
GB +5.5
KC -3
If I have time I will provide more detailed write ups later.
In short:
84% of the teams that had a first round bye win their game. With that in mind, teasing NE +1 and SL -.5 seem very good. I feel that both of these teams cover the spread but I dont like that hook with SL so I will wait to see if it comes down to 7. Both of these teams are undefeated at home and SL is a very tough place to play and will be very loud. This will cause problems of Carolina's young QB.
NE, matches up very well with Tennessee and I think that McNair and George are very beat up and will not have much in the tank with all of their injuries especially after last weeks physical game with Baltimore. NE has a very physical team as well and will wear the Titans down. The only teams to beat Tennessee this year are Indy (twice), NE and the Jets. All these teams offenses are based primarily on the passing game. This is where Tennessee can be exploited. They have the # 1 run defense but their pass defense was 30th (I believe) during the regular season. In the four games they lost to passing teams the scores were
30-38 vs NE
7-33 vs Indy
27-29 vs Indy
17-24 vs Jets
Their defense gave up an average of 31 point per game against these 4 good passing teams and I feel the same will happen again against NE. The only way they could slow down NE is by getting pressure on Brady. This will be very tough as Brady is one of the best QB's at sliding away from pressure and knowing when to throw the ball away.
The NE over seems to be a good play considering the first matchup b/t these teams yielded 68 points and all of the other games (listed above) verses good passing teams. The only 2 elements that could go against this is the weather and how good defenses play during the playoffs. As of right now the weather looks good and I like my matchups against the defenses.
Philly has a very poor run defense, and GB has the best offensive line in football and one of the top 3 running backs. I think Philly will focus on stopping the run leaving them very vulnerable on the playaction passes. I see Favre and Walker having a big day. If Philly stacks the line with 8 or 9 in the box their DB's will be forced into single coverage and Walker is a very big WR with good hands and him and Favre will exploit that single coverage.
Philly's offense is in trouble too. Without Westbrook in the backfield they will be pretty much one-demensional. This will hurt their offense and allow GB's defense to predict Philly's offense more than they did in the first matchup. GB is a veteran team that can win on the road in hostile environments. I will take GB and the points. It should be a very close game, could come down to a fg.
KC -3 is a game that I feel the public will be on Indy, especially after how good they looked last week. I went against my original feeling last week and went with Denver after I really like Indy. I was pursueded by a lot of other cappers and I made a mistake. Indy had something to prove last week. It was a major grudge game and they definately showed up to play. The crowd was loud and once Denver pulled off that bonehead play by not tackling Harrison the game was over at that point. I think this week Indy will strugle a little. They will have a let down after a big emotional game last week, they will not have the loud dome crowd behind them and they will not be able to slow down Preist Holmes.
Indy's defense was motivated by that loud crowd last week and played one of their best games of the year. Once Denver got behind they could not play their type of game which is running an ball control and they were dont. That will not happen this week.
Indy's defense will not have their crowd behind them and will struggle tackling Priest b/c they will have to protect against the pass as well. KC has a much better pass offense than Denver and have not been beat at home all year.
Thats it for now. Good luck in whatever you choose.
NE -6 3 units
NE over 37 2 units
GB +6 1 unit
KC -3 1.5 units
7 point teasers:
NE +1/NE O 30 5 Units
NE +1/SL -.5 5 Units
NE +1/GB +12.5 2 Units
GB+12.5/SL -.5 2 Units
For fun:
4x Parly on:
NE -6
NE over 37 .5 units (pays 5 units)
GB +5.5
KC -3
If I have time I will provide more detailed write ups later.
In short:
84% of the teams that had a first round bye win their game. With that in mind, teasing NE +1 and SL -.5 seem very good. I feel that both of these teams cover the spread but I dont like that hook with SL so I will wait to see if it comes down to 7. Both of these teams are undefeated at home and SL is a very tough place to play and will be very loud. This will cause problems of Carolina's young QB.
NE, matches up very well with Tennessee and I think that McNair and George are very beat up and will not have much in the tank with all of their injuries especially after last weeks physical game with Baltimore. NE has a very physical team as well and will wear the Titans down. The only teams to beat Tennessee this year are Indy (twice), NE and the Jets. All these teams offenses are based primarily on the passing game. This is where Tennessee can be exploited. They have the # 1 run defense but their pass defense was 30th (I believe) during the regular season. In the four games they lost to passing teams the scores were
30-38 vs NE
7-33 vs Indy
27-29 vs Indy
17-24 vs Jets
Their defense gave up an average of 31 point per game against these 4 good passing teams and I feel the same will happen again against NE. The only way they could slow down NE is by getting pressure on Brady. This will be very tough as Brady is one of the best QB's at sliding away from pressure and knowing when to throw the ball away.
The NE over seems to be a good play considering the first matchup b/t these teams yielded 68 points and all of the other games (listed above) verses good passing teams. The only 2 elements that could go against this is the weather and how good defenses play during the playoffs. As of right now the weather looks good and I like my matchups against the defenses.
Philly has a very poor run defense, and GB has the best offensive line in football and one of the top 3 running backs. I think Philly will focus on stopping the run leaving them very vulnerable on the playaction passes. I see Favre and Walker having a big day. If Philly stacks the line with 8 or 9 in the box their DB's will be forced into single coverage and Walker is a very big WR with good hands and him and Favre will exploit that single coverage.
Philly's offense is in trouble too. Without Westbrook in the backfield they will be pretty much one-demensional. This will hurt their offense and allow GB's defense to predict Philly's offense more than they did in the first matchup. GB is a veteran team that can win on the road in hostile environments. I will take GB and the points. It should be a very close game, could come down to a fg.
KC -3 is a game that I feel the public will be on Indy, especially after how good they looked last week. I went against my original feeling last week and went with Denver after I really like Indy. I was pursueded by a lot of other cappers and I made a mistake. Indy had something to prove last week. It was a major grudge game and they definately showed up to play. The crowd was loud and once Denver pulled off that bonehead play by not tackling Harrison the game was over at that point. I think this week Indy will strugle a little. They will have a let down after a big emotional game last week, they will not have the loud dome crowd behind them and they will not be able to slow down Preist Holmes.
Indy's defense was motivated by that loud crowd last week and played one of their best games of the year. Once Denver got behind they could not play their type of game which is running an ball control and they were dont. That will not happen this week.
Indy's defense will not have their crowd behind them and will struggle tackling Priest b/c they will have to protect against the pass as well. KC has a much better pass offense than Denver and have not been beat at home all year.
Thats it for now. Good luck in whatever you choose.
