Bobby: According to this article, can I eat my words?
Bruce Marshall's playoff angles
Bruce Marshall
How much weight should be assigned to past NFL playoff pointspread results?
Our conclusion is that any accompanying spread trend or pattern should rarely be the primary component when comparing the merits of the upcoming combatants, though we reserve the right to emphasize any particular pattern if we believe the dynamics that helped create that trend are still present.
What we don't want to do is completely ignore past results, for, even if they reveal nothing, that alone would prove useful to any thoughtful handicapper. After all, eliminating unimportant information is part of the selection process, too. More often than not, however, results from past years, taken cumulatively, reveal something worthwhile to the analytical process.
So it goes for the NFL Divisional Playoff. Though we've been charting playoff games long enough to know that such trends don't necessarily carry over from one campaign to the next, some of the most pronounced angles in this round have, indeed, endured through several seasons.
Favorites and home teams (usually one and the same in this round) have provided pretty good value in divisional playoff action, especially the past few years. Home teams, all of them favored, are a solid 13-6-1 against the spread since 1998. Favorites laying between 3?-9? points have recorded a 43-26 mark (62 percent) versus the number the past 27 postseasons.
Divisional playoff matchups have often been one-sided affairs. Six of the eight battles in this round the past two seasons were decided by 14 points or more. Since 1976, almost half (53 of 108) of the divisional playoff games have been decided by 2 TDs or more. And since 1994, 25 of the 36 contests in this round have been decided by double-digit margins.
Keep in mind the dynamics, unique to this playoff round, that have likely helped contribute to much of that home-team success. Remember, when the playoffs expanded from 10 to 12 teams in 1990, the postseason tournament was fundamentally altered, with all divisional playoff home teams coming off a valued "bye" week, and all visitors off a potentially hard-fought wildcard playoff battle.
From 1978-89, each of the six division winners had a bye, with the only first-week playoff action involving the two wildcards from each conference. The bye teams (especially since 1990) annually represent the cream of the NFL crop, having proven their quality with a full season's worth of results that rewarded them with an extra week of rest, and the corresponding home field, in conference semifinal play.
Almost all of the NFL "powerhouse teams" in recent memory are included in this grouping. Indeed, 42 of the 50 Super Bowl participants since 1978 (when first-round byes were introduced), and 21 of the last 25 Super Bowl winners, were merely watching the first week of playoff action. The extra rest and prep time have usually paid off.
The following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL divisional playoff games since 1976. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1976 is included as well. Prior to 1976, playoff home teams were predetermined by a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.
CATEGORY RESULT
Favorites vs. line: 59-45-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up: 78-29
Favored by 0-3 points: 5-10-1
Favored by 3?-6? points: 22-14-1
Favored by 7-9? points: 20-12
Favored by 10-13? points: 9-6
Favored by 14 points or more: 3-3-1
Home teams straight up: 80-28
Home teams vs. spread: 61-44-3
Home favorites vs. spread: 57-43-3
Home underdogs vs. spread: 3-2
Home picks vs. spread: 1-0
Over/under (since 1986): 37-31
MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points: 23
4-6 points: 8
7-10 points: 19
11-13 points: 5
14 points or more: 53
Bruce Marshall is an associate editor of The Gold Sheet and has been handicapping sports for 22 years.
