I don't think this line makes sense, but it could make "cents"!

[yyz]

The DBacks are +170 or more to win the series, and you know the DBacks are big chalk tomorrow, and will be in game 7, also. (if it gets there!)

So......how does that make any goddamned sense?

I'll say it again:

"They will be favored in BOTH games, and are huge dog overall?"


I would say, if you have a big bankroll, back the Big unit tomorrow......It is a great price at -150

If you have a limited roll, take the Dbacks on the series price, and hope Brenly gets taped up, and tossed in an empty locker.

 

[BearDownAZ]

Excellent post. . . I agree with most of what you are saying. . . something to beware of regarding the series:

ESPN is reporting that Schilling may not even pitch in game 7. . . obviously this is VERY premature but I guess game 4 took a huge toll on him than it appeared.

Taking Johnson at anything under 200 for the ML is definitely a gift. . .

 

[dr. freeze]

here is why.......D-Backs have to win both games.....at -170, and probably -150, that is a 17/27 * 15/25 proposition......close to .6 times .65

that equals 39% -- which is 4/10 making them about +170 for the series....the math works out.....

 

[phoenix566]

The series play is just like playing a 2 team parlay as mathematisized (?) by the Dr. above.

 

[BearDownAZ]

Yes, the math does work out. . . in my opinion, the best bet is to take Johnson in game six HUGE and then sit bac and enjoy game seven as it should be a nail biter!

 

[yyz]

The line will be through the roof in game seven, making the "math" a tad off, IMO

 

[Junior44]

Advice: Do not take ANY game HUGE. Bad advice, but I know you already know that yyz.

Opinion: D-backs are cooked. No way they take 2-straight.

 

[dr. freeze]

how will the line be through the roof? for which team?

schill might not pitch.....he says that his arm hurts and he also says that he always knows how he is gonna pitch next game the day after his previous start.....

either schill is bluffing, or i would rather take the Yanks in game 7 with the Rocket on the mound and a decent pen.....i seriously doubt schill will be able to go more than 7, and if he doesn't, who is gonna go?

I agree with Bear....but I would also load on the under too, because if the Unit doesn't win, it will be because Petitte pitched the game of his life.....

 

[BearDownAZ]

Bad advice Junior??? Not at all. . . I do not mean bet your damn bankroll on one game. . . I'm saying take Johnson at home for a nice payoff (perhaps what you would be willing to put into two games) and lay off game seven.

DBacks cooked??? Have you been watching this series? The Yankees have basically had a lot of dumb luck go their way. . . sure its possible that they will get lucky again, but not if Arizona continues to outplay them and allow their starters to finish the games as they should (exception will be Schilling as we don't know what his status will be for Sunday).

 

[Junior44]

Yes.....In my opinion, betting double your normal wager is bad advice. As far as the D-backs outplaying the Yanks, I don't agree there either. The Yanks were outplayed in Arizona (actually outpitched) and the D-backs were outplayed (and outmanaged) in New York, especially in game 5 when they left NINETEEN runners on base. If anything it's a wash, however NY is up on the one stat that really matters: games won

 

[kcwolf]

Be careful bear. If your in a postion to go huge on Johnson with that much wood, considering 2-3 in the series? That's not cheap when down one game, facing elimination vs Pettite.

Expect both pitchers to play great.

Good luck!

I see it a little different.

 

[BearDownAZ]

Apparently, there are quite a few of you who are not understanding what I am getting at. So let me try and clear it up:

YYZ brought up some interesting points regarding the series and the fact that he believes there is value in taking the DBacks for the series at +170 because they will likely be favored for both games.

He then indicated that if you have a big bankroll, then back the Big Unit tomorrow. I was MERELY agreeing with this statement! In fact, I took it a step further and said that even if you have a small bankroll, take the DBacks in tomorrow's game because of the uncertainty of Schilling and game 7.

Johnson at home facing elimination is a damn good bet especially if you believe that Randy will pitch the entire game UNLESS he gets in major trouble. It is doubtful that Kim will be around to screw things up for the third time. Arizona has dominated this series so far except for two bottom of the ninth heroics by the Yankees! This series could just as easily be over with!

Johnson on his normal pitching cycle and Arizona coming home should be enough to snap their three game losing skid. . . the DBacks should have a huge motivation factor as well. . .

However, if you believe there is one more miracle in sight for the Yankees, then by all means, take the Yankees!

 

[hoya]

The Yankees did not win those games because of miracles. They won because they are the Yankees. They won because they never give up and they do what it takes to win. And if they win this series they will have won because they are the Yankees. Because they never give up and because they did what it took to win.

 

[BearDownAZ]

Hoya,

That was beautiful. . . but the fact is that the Yankees were lucky to pull out those two games no matter how you try to justify it otherwise. Unfortunately, the Yanks must leave their house of miracles and return to a ballpark where they were soundly defeated in games 1 and 2.

If New York waits again till the 9th inning to pull out their heroics, then they are in for a disappointing surprise because Kim will be nowhere to be found.

 

[Junior44]

Bear - You are so biased towards the D-backs (and all Arizona teams for that matter) your arguements make little rational sense. I'm not a fan of either team, so from my point of view it is what it is. To say that the Yankees were "lucky" is asinine. Even if you assume the 2-out HR's were "lucky" (which is rediculous), the fact of the matter is: both of those games were tied at that point and went to extra innings. And, at that point, the D-backs had their chance to win and they didn't. The Yankees did. Why? Because they had, arguably, the best pitcher in post-season history on the mound in Mariano Rivera. In game 5, they had the bases loaded and failed to deliver. Sanders did all I could do by hitting a screamer up the middle, but again, the Yankees one-uped them by having Soriano beautifully positioned. Even then, he had to execute, and he did. If that ball goes through, it most likely scores 2 runs and the game is over. There are no miracles, luck, or divine intervention at work here. The first 5 games are PAST history. They are over. And the only thing that is significant right now is the Yanks lead 3-2. I also don't think Johnson has any significant advantage in this game than he would during the regular season, especially facing a pitcher with 23 career post-season starts and 10 wins. Will Arizona be able to pull it out? Who knows. But the odds are certainly against them, or they wouldn't be +170.

 

[yyz]

The Yankees have won, because Joe Torre has not put them in a position to lose. He has kept them in all but one game.

The DBacks can't hit the ball, but, over all, have a decent defense, and two great starters.

If anyone thinks Curt Schilling won't start game 7, they are nuts! (Again.....pending a game 7) Do you really think Brenly will ask him how he feels, and he will say, "Coach.....I'm not up to it." Now, he may pitch like shit (doubtful) or he may shut the Yanks down, but the fact remains, they need runs to score.

I may have mislead people into thinking I like Arizona in this spot.....I do not. I merely was pointing out what I perceived as a discrepency in the line, and a way to take advantage of it if you did like the DBacks.

 

[layinwood]

Bear, how can you say it was luck. The fact is the Yanks won. You better hope this game isnt close towards the end because the yanks have something AZ doesnt, a closer and yes maybe luck or is it just the will to win.