I don't usually care for trends, but these I think are relevant

[Penguinfan]

So far in the NFL this year:

Home teams are exactly 50% winners straight up. The "home Field advantage" doesn't seem to be there.
Home teams are covering 46% of the time.
Home favorites are covering 40% of the time.
The over/under is exactly 50/50 so far this year.
In only 9 games this year has the spread mattered.
Underdogs have won straight up 40% of the time.
Road favorites have won 65% of the games straight up but only covered 46% of the time.

Lesson so far seems to be to
(1) Ignore the spread if you are taking a road dog and just bet the ML.
(2) Only take the points if you are betting a home dog.
(3) Don't bet the ML on favorites, it's safe to lay the points.


Most of you are a lot better at this than I am so I'd ask you if this is pretty normal, is it variance due to a small sample size and are we in for a correction?

 

[Penguinfan]

(4) Teasers are nearly worthless this year so far.

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Wow great post! Thanks

 

[ChasDee]

So far in the NFL this year:

Home teams are exactly 50% winners straight up. The "home Field advantage" doesn't seem to be there.
Home teams are covering 46% of the time.
Home favorites are covering 40% of the time.
The over/under is exactly 50/50 so far this year.
In only 9 games this year has the spread mattered.
Underdogs have won straight up 40% of the time.
Road favorites have won 65% of the games straight up but only covered 46% of the time.

Lesson so far seems to be to
(1) Ignore the spread if you are taking a road dog and just bet the ML.
(2) Only take the points if you are betting a home dog.
(3) Don't bet the ML on favorites, it's safe to lay the points.


Most of you are a lot better at this than I am so I'd ask you if this is pretty normal, is it variance due to a small sample size and are we in for a correction?

I think that is pretty solid information Pen, but it's hard to say if it will continues that way. Personally, I find it difficult to take an underdog on the money-line (let's just say I don't have the "stones") because I fear the dog losing the game but covering the wager with the points...in which case you have a loser instead of a winner. However, I think in the long haul, the money-line is the way to go when betting underdogs in the NFL, I just don't have the guts to do it.

 

[Sportsaholic]

(4) Teasers are nearly worthless this year so far.

I disagree.........:0003

 

[Rusty40]

Good information, I feel its all bout cashing in the end and if I am betting a favorite and giving points I may take the minus ML but if I am getting 2.5 points or more I look at taking points and maybe if I feel good about the team I may play the plus ML

BUT what do I know I am minus for the year :shrug:

Rusty

 

[Penguinfan]

Personally, I find it difficult to take an underdog on the money-line (let's just say I don't have the "stones") because I fear the dog losing the game but covering the wager with the points...in which case you have a loser instead of a winner.

I hear you and I think most bettors think this way, but it's costing us money (so far). I've heard for years that if you pick the winner outright you pick the winner against the spread something like 85% of the time. That's holding true so far this year.

 

[Penguinfan]

I disagree.........:0003

:0008