I need help with middling opportunity...

[djeze]

I played this 3 team 7 point teaser yesterday...


Teaser Wager of $100; Pays $150
Atlanta +4 [teased from: -3 points]WON
New England vs. Philadelphia Under 41.5 [teased from: 34.5 points]WON
Washington vs. Pittsburgh Under 49.5 [teased from: 42.5 points]PENDING

Should I middle this game tonight by taking the over 42 for $91.9 or $100 with juice?

Results:

Score under 42: Win $150, loose $100 = +$50
Score on 42: Win $150, push $100 = +150
Score between 43 and 49: Win $150, Win $91.9 = +$241.90
Score over 49.5: Loose $100, win $91.9 = -$8.10

Thanks for the help...

 

[jmizeus]

i'd leave it alone my friend! looks very good! think pittsburgh although it is preseason will send a mesage to the high flying redskins tonite! they have a great defense and i do expect them to come out hitting! i like pittsburgh right now but not sure if im playing it! another thing to keep in mind i dont like alot of points in 2h-yesterday io played 4 2h unders and came away 2-2. have a good friend who was on them last year and had a very solid record like 23-6 -something like that-although he did not notice thuis trend till some of the games were alredy gone!

gl

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I strongly advise NO.

A 6-point middle when the game total is in the 40s is way too narrow a window of opportunity. If these were to run-oriented offenses with a total ~34, I can see going for the middle, but not when a game like this could swing on an errant pass play or a turnover. Add the fact that just about anything is possible in a Redskin game (they might crush this total, if the Steelers decide to go to the air), and I see no value here.

The pure math shows how narrow an opportunity this is. Keeping in mind you WIN both bets on anything 43-49....

There were 622 games totals that landed 43-49 between 1980-2000. Out of 3832, that means only 16.2 percent of all games fall in this range -- not enough to hedge the play.

Whatever you decide, good luck.

Nolan

 

[Stag]

Nolan-
that is GREAT advice and EXCELLENT work on providing those statistics. I'm very impressed with what you come up with from the databases. Your concern for other gamblers here is TERRIFIC!
Thanks for the work that you do here.
Stag

 

[FED]

WOW

 

[DCJ311]

Nolan,

I dont know how meaningful those stats are because they are not all for games with an over/under of roughly 42.

Regardless, the point of this all is that you should leave your bet alone, assuming you don't already find value in the OVER 42.5 play. If you are purely considering it for middling purposes, then it's an incorrect bet. Leave it alone and you'll be happy if you win, and if you lose, you'll know you made the right choice anyways.

 

[djeze]

Thanks for the help Nolan; as always you provide wise insight information.

My only concern with not taking the over for a middle is that just as you say, this game could start to run up in points. No other teams have taken the preseason games as serious as Spurrier, with running up the points to prove that he is worthy of the money.

With hedging, the worst I do is loose $8. If the game does go under 49, which I think that it will, the worst I do is if it is also under 42, then I still have a $50 profit; but I guess that I would have $150 profit if I do nothing.

I WILL LET THE ORIGINAL BET RIDE

 

[Ridge]

I ran into this issue on whether or not to hedge my parlay yesterday where I had the over and cleveland -4 for four units. Kicking myself in the ass today becuase I would have guaranteed making some money versus losing 400. I chose not to and it bit me in the ass. I hope you win your play. I really like the over but I think they may score in the 50's. Plus the other guys that responded had some really good insight. Especially Jmizeus. Leave it alone and hope they cover

 

[GENO]

I would have split the bet into thirds and put 50 on the over and I know some of you will strongly disagree but would have even thought about buying the 42 to 41 giving me an 8 pt opening

obviously too late to be considered and may be best that I am still I feel it ends up in the 40's.

By Halftime we may change our minds, and of course you still have a halfime line opportunity to hedge.

Good Luck

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I dont know how meaningful those stats are because they are not all for games with an over/under of roughly 42.


EXCELLENT point DC...smy tats were for ALL games. Still, I think if you jack up the total to 42 (average NFL total the last 20 years is about 39) -- I stil think the numbers stay in the high teens. It may increase chances for a middle up to 17, maybe 18 or 19 percent, but no higher.

I appreciate your correction.

Now for another point -- I am kicking myself in the ass for not playing the 1H UNDER. The Redskins starting offense is dreadful (this is fabulous for us because all the sqaures perceive the Washington offense as a high-scoring team -- convinced that the third string Redkins offense playing against scrubs is REALLY indicate of how things will go in the regular season, as though it matters.)

Redskins are looking better and better every week to be a good fade early in the season. Please, baby -- move that Cardinal line to +7. Line is +6.5 -- but could move if Washington runs the table.

I'm rooting for the Redskins to come back in the 2H and score some points -- that way we can hear Terry Bradshaw and the TV "experts" talk about how powerful this Washington offense is with Spurrier -- when the FACT is, these flubs have put up a whopping THREE points in three games. God, I love this game.

Nolan

 

[GENO]

27 + 14 = 41

KEY NUMBER for total score

see above post

(this is meant as constructive info only please don't take offense)

 

[Ridge]

31 pts in third quarter, no way unbelievable

 

[djeze]

Maybe I should have looked at this differently: Instead of having a 17-19% chance of winning both wagers, I actually would have had roughly a 45% chance of minimizing my losses... This is assuming that the average total over x amount of years is 39; then 50% f the games go over that, and 50% of them go under that. I assume that most totals would be bunched together around 39, and taper off quickly after 10-15 points outside of this number either way.