I need help!!!

[The Big Tease]

OK math wizards...I wanted to post this before the games get started so that it is not inferfering. But I was wondering if someone knows where I can find or how to figure out how to convert Money lines into actual percentages.

Example- If I have Ohio State, and they are -280, what is the actual percentage probability that they will win "according to those odds" It has been far too long since I have studied stats, and I am sure that it is simple, but for the life of me, I am not coming up with an accurate figure.

I thought you could simply take.....1/9 to simply figure +900, but that is not correct because if you hit a +900 bet once out of 9 times, you are actually ahead.

HELP!!!!!!

It will help me with my new system/model.

 

[bigd]

Using your ex. -280

You are risking $280.00 to win $100.00

You divide 100 into 280 = 35.71%

Hope this helps

 

[IE]

i think this is what you mean?


To get odds as percentage, divide the favorite odds by the odds + 1.00, 2.80 ./. 3.80

at -280 they are saying ohio st wins this game 73.7% of the time.

 

[The Big Tease]

IE...that is exactly what I am trying to do. Thank you for the reply! Now I am really showing my stupidity....but how do you figure underdog odds?

 

[winagainjoe]

IE, What about a dog? +280?

 

[The Big Tease]

I figured it out.....

You have to convert it into a fraction, then takes its reciprocal, and add 1 to the denominator.

Example: +580

5.8/1....The reciprocal is 1/5.8...then take that and make it 1/6.8.

1/6.8= 14.7

So If you have a line that looks like this.....

Ohio State -280
Michigan +220


What Vegas is really saying is

Ohio State= 73.7%
Michigan= 31.3%

Can anyone confirm this?

 

[heleanth]

I think you are correct, assuming 1.05 vig.

Your results are that if you bet the favorite, you need to win 73.7% of the time to break even. For the underdog, you need to win 31.3% of the time to break even.

Interesting stuff. Good luck.

 

[TAZ]

I was doing the same thing this morning after you pointed me to that website. It may be easier to understand without vig.
If the two teams are +150 and -150 then the following makes sense:

Fav = 1.50/2.50 = 60%
Dog = 1.00/2.50 = 40%

Or in more simple terms:
Betting a Fav will cost you $1.50 and if you win you will get back $2.50if it is a winner, betting a dog will cost you $1.00 and you will get back $2.50 if it is a winner. Similar to a return on investment, in this case investment amount / total possible = % if that helps.