That when same teams meet up in Bowl The pre season winner won the bowl s/u and ats 5 times out of 6 :scared
now it's 6 times out of 7 ummmmmmmmmmmmmm 95% trend
now it's 6 times out of 7 ummmmmmmmmmmmmm 95% trend
I saw someone post this weird trend about preaseason games
- Thread starter Scrapman
- Start date
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/...degenrates-thoughts-on-footballs-biggest-game
sb final score (43-8) almost mirrored their preseason score of 40-10
I originally heard stat from willie mcginest on one of nfl channels many pre SB prediction broadcasts
sb final score (43-8) almost mirrored their preseason score of 40-10
I originally heard stat from willie mcginest on one of nfl channels many pre SB prediction broadcasts
I think there can be tremendous value in some trends, but will never base a play entirely on any particular trend.
I have a background in math and physics, and I've dealt with stats a lot in my years, which is also a big reason why I love sports so much (and incidentally betting them). If there's one thing I know about trying to derive any kind of meaning from a statistic or trend, and trying to use it to predict the future, it's that you MUST have a big enough sample size AND you must be able to back up WHY you think the trend will continue.
Regarding the trend above, 6 out of 7 looks pretty good, and I'm not saying that this trend doesn't have merit, but 7 is a very small sample size. Hell, 50 is a small sample size.
It is very difficult to find large sample sizes in football games because they only play 16 games and so many other variables change from year to year, or even game to game.
I will still take some trends into consideration though, but they are always just one factor in deciding a play, and only ever when I can back it up with reasons why I think that trend will continue.
Just because you flip a coin and it lands on heads 9 our of 10 times does not mean it has a 90% chance of hitting heads on the 11th try. BUT, if you think there is a valid reason why it hit heads 9 out of 10 times (external factors, weighted coin, sleight of hand, etc.), then maybe there is some value in the trend.
Scrapman, nobody does more research on this kind of stuff than you do and I always enjoy seeing the trends you come up with. Just want to caution anyone who relies heavily on trends, from a mathematical point of view, to look at other factors too and make sure the trend makes sense!
I have a background in math and physics, and I've dealt with stats a lot in my years, which is also a big reason why I love sports so much (and incidentally betting them). If there's one thing I know about trying to derive any kind of meaning from a statistic or trend, and trying to use it to predict the future, it's that you MUST have a big enough sample size AND you must be able to back up WHY you think the trend will continue.
Regarding the trend above, 6 out of 7 looks pretty good, and I'm not saying that this trend doesn't have merit, but 7 is a very small sample size. Hell, 50 is a small sample size.
It is very difficult to find large sample sizes in football games because they only play 16 games and so many other variables change from year to year, or even game to game.
I will still take some trends into consideration though, but they are always just one factor in deciding a play, and only ever when I can back it up with reasons why I think that trend will continue.
Just because you flip a coin and it lands on heads 9 our of 10 times does not mean it has a 90% chance of hitting heads on the 11th try. BUT, if you think there is a valid reason why it hit heads 9 out of 10 times (external factors, weighted coin, sleight of hand, etc.), then maybe there is some value in the trend.
Scrapman, nobody does more research on this kind of stuff than you do and I always enjoy seeing the trends you come up with. Just want to caution anyone who relies heavily on trends, from a mathematical point of view, to look at other factors too and make sure the trend makes sense!
Cortez i totally agrree with you on sample sizes but also trends i differtiate from systems
Trends are certain specific conditons that only apply to one team as this big trend
the Buffalo bils are 2- 14 s/u and ATS after a Dolphins win thats a heavy sample size over 15 years
so that trend is valid
A system applies to every team every year no matter who or where they play when the factors are involved with cause and effect the system produces the same results. OF course any system cannot be used when Teams quit on season as TB did again this or when a team is multi injured like 6 or more starters on IR.
when that happens i just stick with the healthy team or the Team that is still playing for pride at end of year.
Here's a solid system of mines 100% when alla factors are met
this i call the home and home system only applies to div. games
when any team Favored losses the game s/u to a non div foe before home game vs . div team they all lost the game s/u and ats in that 2nd home game to thier div rival.
AS long as DIV team didnt have 3 high scoring ATS wins before this tilt
this happend to Bengals this year and I lost taking them as a Fav. over steelers
SO i now have that exception added on the visiting div. team
long running NFL league wide system fade any team when favored after a s/u DOG win
65% losers
Trends are certain specific conditons that only apply to one team as this big trend
the Buffalo bils are 2- 14 s/u and ATS after a Dolphins win thats a heavy sample size over 15 years
so that trend is valid
A system applies to every team every year no matter who or where they play when the factors are involved with cause and effect the system produces the same results. OF course any system cannot be used when Teams quit on season as TB did again this or when a team is multi injured like 6 or more starters on IR.
when that happens i just stick with the healthy team or the Team that is still playing for pride at end of year.
Here's a solid system of mines 100% when alla factors are met
this i call the home and home system only applies to div. games
when any team Favored losses the game s/u to a non div foe before home game vs . div team they all lost the game s/u and ats in that 2nd home game to thier div rival.
AS long as DIV team didnt have 3 high scoring ATS wins before this tilt
this happend to Bengals this year and I lost taking them as a Fav. over steelers
SO i now have that exception added on the visiting div. team
long running NFL league wide system fade any team when favored after a s/u DOG win
65% losers
