I'm not saying it isn't important; it is. I am just saying I am starting to think it is a heck of a lot important *when* you make your bet. When I shop I might get 1/2 point or, at most, 1 point difference in value when I shop. When I make a bet later or earlier in the day the difference many times is at least 1 point, sometimes up to 2 points. Similar thing for moneylines where usually a 5 cent, at more a 10 cent, difference will be available at any given time but earlier or later in the day the difference can be much greater.
I think shopping for lines is overrated
- Thread starter Nick Douglas
- Start date
So Nick, in a round about way you are saying you are Joe Public and better to get in early rather than late.
Nick.....I can relate to most of what you said in your post....have watched a number of lines and waffled on making a move.....waiting for the line to move hopefully in my favor....most times going against me and forced to decide later in the week or day on whether or not to take this new worse number....
last one I had was a favorite bet up to -4......I bet them at -4 only to see them win by 4......could have had them earlier at a cheaper price that would have won.......at least it wasn't a loss.....goddamn sucks to go 1-1 instead of 2-0 because some kicker missed an extra point and I got stuck by the hook......
Have speculated at times....taking a game early in the week thinking damn well the number will go against me.....maybe set up a middle opportunity.....
Halftime lines are so volatile that there's little time to think.....wait even a few minutes and things change so fast....Halftime of the pro bowl I saw a 26.5 that quickly turned into 27.5.....scared me a little but I saw no value in the under, thought it safer to play the third quarter over 10.....
I guess the moral of the story, something that we all here will agree with, is to try to get the best number or moneyline that supports your position on a game or event......
last one I had was a favorite bet up to -4......I bet them at -4 only to see them win by 4......could have had them earlier at a cheaper price that would have won.......at least it wasn't a loss.....goddamn sucks to go 1-1 instead of 2-0 because some kicker missed an extra point and I got stuck by the hook......
Have speculated at times....taking a game early in the week thinking damn well the number will go against me.....maybe set up a middle opportunity.....
Halftime lines are so volatile that there's little time to think.....wait even a few minutes and things change so fast....Halftime of the pro bowl I saw a 26.5 that quickly turned into 27.5.....scared me a little but I saw no value in the under, thought it safer to play the third quarter over 10.....
I guess the moral of the story, something that we all here will agree with, is to try to get the best number or moneyline that supports your position on a game or event......
NICK I DONT BLAME YOU FOR SHOPPING AROUND IF I PICKED GAMES LIKE YOU DO I WOULD BE LOOKING FOR VALUE TO CUT BACK THE VIG YOU ARE PAYING OUT ON EACH BET.THANKS FOR THE WINNER LAST NIGHT NICK YOU REALLY SAVED MY ARSE AT LEAST YOU SHOPPED AROUND AND ONLY LAYED -135 THAT WAS A GOOD DEAL FOR THE BOOKIES
ALWAYS SLEEP WITH YOUR HANDS ABOVE THE COVERS THIS WAY YOU WONT BE TEMPTED TO TOUCH YOUR WEINER
ALWAYS SLEEP WITH YOUR HANDS ABOVE THE COVERS THIS WAY YOU WONT BE TEMPTED TO TOUCH YOUR WEINER
What happened to the restraining order? Do yourself a favor and BET ALL YOU WANT (?btj) on the Seattle under tonight in the NBA. Get 187 if you can because that's where the value is.
You do the work up and have what you think score will be find your line and play the freaking game, if you try and play the line game you will talk yourself out of many games, if the line is not what you have to fit your work up move on, people make this shit way harder then it really is.
fletcher said:
Agree 100%. I used to play the line move game, and scared myself out of some solid winners. Cap the game, have faith in the numbers that you came up with, and play the line accordingly.
fletcher has taught me a lot over the years, but this is one area where I still disagree. I trust my handicapping, but I feel that line value is still important. Different strokes for different folks, I guess.
Here is the one thing I would recommend based on my experience. If you look back at your wager spreadsheet for the last 3 or 4 years and don't see a profit, consider line value. (If you don't have a wager spreadsheet, then get your head out of your rear end and start one)
Here is the one thing I would recommend based on my experience. If you look back at your wager spreadsheet for the last 3 or 4 years and don't see a profit, consider line value. (If you don't have a wager spreadsheet, then get your head out of your rear end and start one)
you know me Nick the line is like least on my list that i look at ,it is the last thing i check , I do my work and like i said if my numbers show better then the line it is played then and there not a major factor in my handicapping, my line is, not the line a linesmaker puts out. they could have the most fuked up line in the world and if my line has it as a play bombs away, and it is only juice if you lose
I've said this for years, Eric, and so many people don't listen.
When i used to cap on a regular basis, I never looked at a line until I had my plays handicapped. ONLY THEN, did I check the actual line to see if I would have a wager or not. To me.....that is where the value is. The spread between the books line, and mine.
When i used to cap on a regular basis, I never looked at a line until I had my plays handicapped. ONLY THEN, did I check the actual line to see if I would have a wager or not. To me.....that is where the value is. The spread between the books line, and mine.
Yep and that is how it should be. If you look at lines before your work then you have messed your mind up already and will 2nd guess your own work.
I will email you on fri want to know about your phone call, I know the out come but have some questions I would like to know.
Take care and will mail you on fri sometime
have a good weekend really enjoyed you and your girlfriend coming out this year. YYZ is really a great person as everyone who comes out to party is, when you meet people in person totally different then sitting behind a screen and everyone has never left not likeing ach other, a screen makes it really hard to get to know and enjoy the company of others from this site.
Eric
I will email you on fri want to know about your phone call, I know the out come but have some questions I would like to know.
Take care and will mail you on fri sometime
have a good weekend really enjoyed you and your girlfriend coming out this year. YYZ is really a great person as everyone who comes out to party is, when you meet people in person totally different then sitting behind a screen and everyone has never left not likeing ach other, a screen makes it really hard to get to know and enjoy the company of others from this site.
Eric
Basically what I was trying to say in a nice way with this post a few days ago. Watching line moves is a waste of time for me unless I can know for sure which way the line is going to move.(impossible) I believe like Fletcher.........get an idea what your line you would make on the game and compare and either bet it or not. I would drive myself crazy watching lines all day. Bet the game at the best time of the day and get the best numbers........best the game at the worst time and get the worst numbers. The problem is it is impossible to know when the best or worst time is. Kind of like a better knowing when the good streaks are going to come and know when the bad streaks are going to come.(also impossible)
I thought of a better alternative for myself ..............".Here is the one thing I would recommend based on my experience. If you look back at your wager spreadsheet for the last 3 or 4 years and don't see a profit. "
CONSIDER QUITTING GAMBLING............NOW IF ONLY I WOULD FOLLOW THIS ALTERNATIVE.......HA
Everyone gets bad numbers from time to time. I just think it pays to stay away from the ones you know about by taking a few minutes to check the line histories at Best Bettor.
