IE & his QS

[katts]

IE: first, congrats for the bunch of winners yesterday - followed you on one of them. Keep them coming and I'll forget about the NHL off-season

I was just wondering.. you sometimes mention the QS% (Quality Start), like for tonight, you wrote:

CLEMENS STILL IN CYCLE TO GIVE YANKS ONLY 35% CHANCE OF A QS

Hope I don't sound too dumb here as I don't know much about baseball handicapping - and even non-handicapping - terms and probably missed a couple of your posts, but what exactly is your definition of a "quality start"?

Thanks

BTW This question is for IE but if any of you knows the answer or has a 'personal' definition of a "quality start" feel free to respond.

 

[MadJack]

QS -- Quality Starts -- pitching at least 6 innings and allowing no more than 2 earned runs

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good questions STU...errrrrr... katts.
hope you italian language experts got that joke.

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-13-2001).]

 

[Investment Executive]

Jack is right 6.0 innings pitched 2 runs or less....some handicappers use 6IP/3ER..

i think i mentioned what im looking for in one earlier page update....but no matter at all...probably didn't explain it well(have a tendency to do that..lmao)

in regards to how i setup for totals a non quality start for my use is 5.0 innings or less and 3.0 +runs ...

or

6.0 innings + w/ 4.0 + runs

quality starts the last couple of years are different for every single pitcher....depending on his patterns and tendencies and what a team needs out of that pitcher...the individual starter is just one entity of the whole team pitching staff and how that teams use its staff...along w/ the offensive tendencies of the team and the park adjusted factor.

if a team like colorado at home gets
6 1/3 IP w/ 4 runs from Chacon off his patterns i would still classify that as a quality start.

hope thats a bit clearer....if not fire away

good luck

IE

 

[Investment Executive]

setup your classifications of starting pitching and look for weakness patterns pertaining to that pitcher....use it in conjunction w/ the use of the rest of the staff in recent form...

lets use the phillies randy wolf as an example:

Date Vs. Score   IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest 
6/8/2001 @Boston L 2-3 Start - L 8.0 8 3 3 7 0 3 109 8:8 5 
6/2/2001 @Montreal L 5-12 Start - L 4.0 7 6 5 5 2 0 82 2:4 4 
5/28/2001 @NY Mets W 5-3 Start - ND 6.0 6 2 2 6 6 0 128 3:8 4 
5/23/2001 Pittsburgh W 4-0 Start - W 7.1 2 0 0 10 3 0 124 5:7 5 
5/17/2001 Milwaukee W 2-1 Start - ND 7.0 5 1 1 10 1 0 99 6:5 5 
5/11/2001 @Arizona W 5-1 Start - W 8.0 5 1 1 9 1 0 119 6:9 5

going into the montreal game on 6/2/2001 he was coming off extreme pitch counts and his last game showed a pattern of high walks vs k ratio....a pattern he might be fatiguing....off his pattern in his prior starts where he was dominating..he was fortunate to get out of that mets game w/ only 2 runs given up due to some great defensive plays by his teamates.....

the result of getting shelled in expos game is noted....

like i say this is just one example of types of weakness im looking for....have 68 different types all w/ different rank of percentages....but you have to remember to incorporate the rest of the staff/bullpen going into each game...thats a must.

also you must learn over time what the percentages equate to the inferred line of todays games for each team.

i would dissect each boxscore of each game of each day all season...write down notes from them....good place to start and learn...don't rely on any stat site do the record keeping yourself w/ notes....items that will be recalled quickly 5 days down the road...have a notebook for each team and record each game.

the only way to beat a sport over the long term....is to try to find something that the public has not incorporated into the line.

in baseball for example ....i have seen a ton of players using trends,weather,umpires...etc etc...all items which are already built into the line if they are strong enough...

good luck

IE

 

[katts]

probably didn't explain it well(have a tendency to do that..lmao)

Well you did explain it very well here

Like I said I probably missed a couple of your updates - don't feel so guilty - rofl

Thanks to you and Jack