IE or any other Data Base Baseball Experts

[Happy'Capper]

I have a theory I would like to put against the numbers, but I can't find a data base that seperates day/night games, and I may have to do this by hand over time.....

But, when it comes to day baseball games, which I define as a game starting before 2:00pm local time, the OVER in these games seems to be more prevelant than the under. Also, the game has to be in an outdoor stadium, which makes it sticky when it comes to retractable domes.

The two main reason I feel this happens is one, hitters can plain and simply see the ball better. Two, and probably more importantly, the day games usually follows a night game where the bullpen if used heavily doesn't even get a full day of rest.

I know with these perameters it may be difficult to find a data base like this, to see if this is just a trend or a true angle.

Any opinions on this topic is greatly appreciated, or if anyone has tried this study before I would really like to hear their findings.

thanks,
HC

 

[wigs]

i agree, plus as weather gets better, i think the offense has an even bigger advantage as starters tire more in this 90 plus degree heat, and hitters have more favorable weather conditions to hit in.

 

[phoenix566]

The ball seems to travel farther when it is hot and humid as well (provided the batters can hit it). Just my two cents.

 

[fletcher]

you can get a paper called the winning points pay no attionn to there games but i will stack the stat break downs in all sports with anyone i use it,ray should it to me ,stats are the best i have ever senn break down wise, if this is a nono webmaster you can trash it,ray can get you the web site,most news stands sell iy.i buy it or barrow it from a book out here,

 

[Happy'Capper]

Fletch,
thanks much, I will check out my local newstand..... and try to find the website...

thanks again,
HC

 

[Investment Executive]

H/C....with all respect in mind....not worth your time on both counts from above....treat each game individually like your doing....your success will be on finding weakness in lines like you have been doing...i understand where your coming from and have done similar runthoughs...and what it does it lead to overload of info that is irrelvant...to many other variable factors that factor into all these stats...the exceptions will kill you in the run of a 1/2 season.


don't trust any sites or info out there....you HAVE to keep your own stats..


Phil Irwin has this to say from 1998-2000....

just for info....nothing else...


Generally, ERA are lower in night games, but obviously not always. American League starters have been better, slightly, in daytime in recent years, with NL starters holding to the historical pattern of lower ERA in night games. AL day games have averaged 10.2 runs, as opposed to 10.4 runs at night. National league contests total 9.9 runs in daytime, 9.6 runs at night. These are over the 1998-2000 period.

Against the Over/Under line, AL day games are over 47.8% of the time, while NL day games are over 49.8%, an almost even split. So day games have produced more unders. Ties v. the line not included. Night games have been over 48.4% of the time in the AL, and have gone over 50.7% in the NL in the 1998-2000 span.

There is disparity among teams in the number of home day games played. In 1998-2000 the Angels played only 31 home day games, while the Cubs played 190. The typical team played 75-80. Taking a look at home day games by teams that play few or many we find:

TEAM #HD HDWIN% H% AD% A%
ANA 31 .290 .514 .443 .461
KC 58 .417 .432 .474 .449
TEX 35 .400 .576 .447 .457
ARI 43 .535 .547 .481 .478
LA 44 .500 .530 .511 .481

NYY 102 .627 .653 .605 .609
OAK 120 .567 .565 .456 .471
TOR 92 .554 .560 .584 .490
CHC 190 .495 .502 .398 .404
COL 97 .485 .531 .357 .420
NYM 93 .688 .625 .459 .518
SF 126 .603 .629 .483 .484

Reading across, #HD is the total of home day games, 1998-2000, followed by the team?s winning percentage in those games, the overall home winning %, the win% in away day games, and the win% in all away games.

Of the teams playing fewer than 60 HD, every one had a lower win% in those games than in all home games. And those win% are noticeably poorer, overall, than those of the teams playing many home day contests. It appears that a team that plays few home day games loses some of whatever home field advantage it has in those. Four of the five teams playing few home day games were actually

better in away day games, suggesting that for many of the ordinary teams home day games may also be a slight disadvantage - in that the home advantage might be smaller.

The teams playing many home day contests maintained the home advantage for the most part, and the Mets were quite a bit better in those. Toronto was singular in that the Jays, playing many home day and playing well in those, were even better in away day!

Over the years our studies of day games included seeing if slugging teams did better in daytime (inconclusive) and judging that fastball or hard-throwing pitchers were more apt to have a higher ERA in day games, which turned out to be true but with exceptions.

Night games are those scheduled to start after 6 PM local time. Both games of twi-night doubleheaders are night games, regardless of 1st game start time.


[This message has been edited by Investment Executive (edited 07-01-2001).]

 

[jng]

A ball which would travel 375 feet on a 70 degree evening will fly 385 feet at 100 degrees. Hot air has less "drag" and each 10 degrees adds 3-4 feet of distance.

As an aside, wind blowing in at 10 mph takes about 30 feet off a fly ball. Instead of making it 400 feet over the wall, it''s just a long 370 foot out.

J

(From "The Physics of Baseball" by Robert K. Adair)

 

[jng]

duplicate

[This message has been edited by jng (edited 07-02-2001).]