If you Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$
- Thread starter Northern Star
- Start date
I usually don't give anyone a hard time rather props and GL, but when you come in posting the way you did and then try and support yourself with plays you didn't even post, your credibility really takes a beating.I know it is fine with posting and I wasn't too successfull posting rather make a comment in sone one else's post.I like to throw out my point on a game if someone asks what do you think about this or that,when I posted seemed like I always posted the wrong game,now I didn't come back and say you know I went 7-2 last night but the only 2 I lost was the ones I posted won all other seven games.NO ONE gives a shit about the games you didn't post we only care about what we see.Talk about what you post or don't talk about it,or if your going to talk about them then post them.
whats the big deal???post your record what it iz here.everybody has other plays they dont post..when keeping a record here,its done on what u post HERE .whats so hard to understand about that...5-0 in your 1st days here is just as good,,NOBODY GIVES A CHIt what u posted somewhere else...gl
I am posting the same plays I posted somewhere else and keeping the same record. I didn't think it was a big deal.
O-2 today with the plays posted and the lines posted at the time the plays were posted. Hopefully anyone who played Denver over played it early and won and if you played the under you played it later and pushed or won.
really?? if that is the case then in this ONE thread
you are 1-4
how can you say that if you are counting a phantom record from another site..:shrug:
18-13? you must be joking
0-1 Sunday, off to a brilliant start, NO is vey up and down on the road and they sure didn't show up.
Record 18-14
Northern Star
Record 18-14
Northern Star
HE HATE MONEY!
HE HATE MONEY!
No his record is not correct. his record is 1-4 or a winning % of 20%.
Keep on rocking it NS. You must really hate money to hand it over to the book so easily.
HE HATE MONEY!
No his record is not correct. his record is 1-4 or a winning % of 20%.
Keep on rocking it NS. You must really hate money to hand it over to the book so easily.
Last edited:
Spent the day analyzing some numbers because unfortunately the program isn't set-up to track them for me. I intentionally put a bias in the program towards the under because I think the line has a bias towards favorites and overs. I looked back about a month and a half. The program picks approximately 2 unders for every over. When the program picks and over it is hitting well over 60%. The unders are coming in at about 54% (respectable but definite room for improvement). This % has come down sine the allstar break. Part of the reason is that since the allstar break over all in the NBA there have been 60 over to just 44 unders, I expect this to even out and the under % to increase.
The other thing I did was look at how the program has done predicting each team. I used to calculate a number for each game in the NBA 15-20 and bet based on a difference from my line to the betting line. I used information like offensive and defensive fg%, free throw shooting % and rebounds both offensive and defensive to determine a number. It so happened that I seemed to always lose when I bet on the Timberwolves and I noticed it. Even though their offensive and defensive fg% were better than some opponent they would lose. I came to the conclusion that it was because they were a good fg% team but they didn't get fouled much and got beat because of the number of free throws per game. There were a couple of teams it just didn't work good with. It may be the same with this program that a few of the teams are just harder to predict and i should leave them off for awhile and see how it plays out. The worst one was one I used yesterday in New Orleans. I guess I was a day late with this anaysis.
The last thing is just a random opinion on handicapping in general. Assume the total on a game is 200. There is going to be a bell type distribution of final scores around 200. Now you have a game like SA and Phoenix a few weeks ago and they scored like 160 points. If you picked the under you look like a genius and the over an idiot. Those games are going to even out where you were never close in your calculation of the predicted score. I estimate there are about 40% of the games which fall into this category. Now we have the other 60% of the games that are going to be relatively close to the predicted score. We just want to hit a decent % on those games and do the best we can by shopping for a good line. If we go 20-20 on the games you could never have predicted hopefully hit in the 37-23 range for the other 60 games, overall we would hit 57%. To do that though I think we need teams that are relatively steady in their performance day in and day out San Antonio is a team that is steady and the program is hitting 80% on games involving them. I hope the added analysis today results in a better understand of the program and increased winning %.
Three games today and a pass on all three.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
The other thing I did was look at how the program has done predicting each team. I used to calculate a number for each game in the NBA 15-20 and bet based on a difference from my line to the betting line. I used information like offensive and defensive fg%, free throw shooting % and rebounds both offensive and defensive to determine a number. It so happened that I seemed to always lose when I bet on the Timberwolves and I noticed it. Even though their offensive and defensive fg% were better than some opponent they would lose. I came to the conclusion that it was because they were a good fg% team but they didn't get fouled much and got beat because of the number of free throws per game. There were a couple of teams it just didn't work good with. It may be the same with this program that a few of the teams are just harder to predict and i should leave them off for awhile and see how it plays out. The worst one was one I used yesterday in New Orleans. I guess I was a day late with this anaysis.
The last thing is just a random opinion on handicapping in general. Assume the total on a game is 200. There is going to be a bell type distribution of final scores around 200. Now you have a game like SA and Phoenix a few weeks ago and they scored like 160 points. If you picked the under you look like a genius and the over an idiot. Those games are going to even out where you were never close in your calculation of the predicted score. I estimate there are about 40% of the games which fall into this category. Now we have the other 60% of the games that are going to be relatively close to the predicted score. We just want to hit a decent % on those games and do the best we can by shopping for a good line. If we go 20-20 on the games you could never have predicted hopefully hit in the 37-23 range for the other 60 games, overall we would hit 57%. To do that though I think we need teams that are relatively steady in their performance day in and day out San Antonio is a team that is steady and the program is hitting 80% on games involving them. I hope the added analysis today results in a better understand of the program and increased winning %.
Three games today and a pass on all three.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Nothing real strong today, program singled out two unders but we know how they have been doing. 2-1 on unders yesterday and I expect it will be pretty close to 50-50 on o/u by the end of the month (from the allstar break). Let's wait and see. Only one line has gone down from the opener, which makes me believe even more we are going to start seeing some unders.
Based on yesterday's post it would look foolish to post an under.
A couple of the other categories point to an over so let's run with one today.
detroit over 194
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Based on yesterday's post it would look foolish to post an under.
A couple of the other categories point to an over so let's run with one today.
detroit over 194
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Would you please do something else with your time than reading my thread! thanks in advance
Thats what this site is for; reading others peoples threads and ideas, but you are a fraud.. You dont claim winners until the game is over and you didnt post them. Your record is in question and you have no credability h:shrug: ere.
