If you only learn one thing from this site.....

[yyz]

Guys the last few days has been a who's who of guys saying they are done with baseball, or losing their ass, etc.

The one common theme that these threads all have? Poor money management.

Guys losing their entire bankroll in a day or two, guys doubling up after a team loses a couple in a series. All of us learn from these phases, but if any of you young guys ever listen to anything I say, let it be this:

• Teams can/do get swept in a series by the lesser team.
• -200 teams get beat every day.
• You have to settle for small returns.
  (You can't send $300 to a book, and bet three games at a buck each!)

Listen to me.......how many people work 40+ hours a week, and scrimp and save in that 401k to get some retirement cash? If your fund manager is hitting 10-15% a year, he is a god! His firm loves him, his stockholders love him, and you love him!

Now, you save up all year to send that fat $2500 to the offshore for the upcoming football season. (Everyone in the office comes to you for your expertise, because you once hit a four teammer on the office parlay sheet.) What do you want from that $2,500? What is a good return? What is a good amount to toss out there on a bet? How much should you wager in a day? These are questions that 90% of you have no fukcing answer for!

If that 401k lost 10% a year, you would find a new fund after a few losing years, you wouldn't run it into the ground! You wouldn't risk it by lossing half of your funds, and then switching to a very risky and aggressive fund, would you? You would try to find another option that got you steady returns, and try to build your money back up!

Gamblers lose a few hundred dollars, and right away they expect to get it back in a few plays. That is how they go bust, and shout, "This sucks!"

Gamblers send $500 to the book, and want a check for $1,500 coming back at them in two weeks.

You need to set realistic goals, and stick to the propper ways to achieve those goals. Now, there are a lot of schools on what you need to do to get from point A to point B, but any decent sports investor will tell you that it all hinges on Money Management skills.

I know a lot of you will scoff when I say you should be happy with a 10-15% return on your seasonal investment, but then again, you are the same people who think you have it made because your book gives you a 10% re-load bonus........

 

[kickserv]

the one thing I learned from this site.........is that it's been months and BeanpoleJim still doesn't know what the "caps lock" button represents





oh..........and tennis betting is where it's at

 

[Snafu]

i have learned to do as i think would be smart thing to do.
not just bash money around and hope the best thing to happen, it won't

-i don't have to play every day
-i don't take more than 2-3 max 4 bets day, includes all sports around the world, no point to take 5-8 NHL bets/night + 5-8 soccer bets and then some more
-i don't put too much money on one game WHAT EVER GAME IT IS
-i don't chase dogs with huge +money
-absolutly no NHL totals to me, soccer totals yes please
-keep it simple, too much statistics gets you confused

most important things :

-MONEYMANAGMENT, don't make plays too easily or don't put too much money on one bet, it takes long time to figure this out but when you have lost money you should start thinking how your losses have come, bad luck ? right....

-HAVE A REASON TO PLACE YOUR BET, not just it feels ok bet and pays out just nicely. ok, detroit playing baseball is a reason to bet against them but in regular bases......




may all your bets be winners

 

[acehistr8]

Re: If you only learn one thing from this site.....

The one common theme that these threads all have? Poor money management.

Amen yyz, a-freaking-men. I have had people ask me what the secret is to hanging around for the long term and this is it.

I would add the one thing I feel that has done the most good for me is not playing big favorites anymore. I cant count the number of "Games of the Week/Year/Decade" I have seen on a -280 or so favorite that ends up getting beat. I can count a half dozen times this past month or so when Pedro or Unit or similar top name pitchers have lost as HUGE moneyline favorites. My personal rule now is I will never play a favorite over -120. Ever. Nothing against anyone that does, I just wont. Playing dogs means that even at a 50-50 night I am making money. And if you spend even a few minutes looking around, you will find pitchers worth taking a flyer on. Look at Dontrelle Willis and Cliff Lee tonight - both dogs. I'm willing to bet at least one of them wins.

Another thing I have been using is alternate runlines. They basically flip the -1.5 lines around where most of the odds end up at +220 or higher. I find 3 half decent pitchers going on the night and bet them. Winning just one means you have made money for the night.

This site loses when we lose guys because they bet like this. I'm not saying we lose great handicappers, but this site thrives because of the variety of people here.

Great post yyz. Should be a sticky post.

 

[dawgball]

yyz--Thanks for the post. Agree 100%. To add to your point, when you send $2500 to an offshore, do you have a top-end get out point. If it's three weeks into the season and you have gone on an amazing 20-0 start (3% plays) skyrocketing your account to $4000, what is your next step?

A. Stay at same betting rate
B. Dial it back to protect your winnings but keep betting for fun
C. Withdrawal--that IS a 60% return on your money and the streak is bound to correct itself
D. Increase your wager amounts to make your 2-5% bets match your new total

I would like to see everyone's honest decision on this question. Of course, someone's opinion and what they would actually do are going to differ.

I guess the same question would need to be posed in the negative as well. You go on a 0-20 start and have depleted your account to $850. What is your next move?

Sorry to interrupt your post, but I really like your ideas on this.

 

[acehistr8]

I would go with D in both cases. Adjust the % bet to reflect your new winnings. Now if I had an expenditure or trip coming up that I wanted money for, maybe I make a small withdrawal. But if this is the money thats in there for wagering, then I smally increase my bets upward.

IMHO betting at the same rate will bleed you slowly to death. I think they say this about blackjack to, though I dont know if thats applicable. If you are winning, and you think you are going to continue to win long term, D is my choice though certainly I can see why people would go different ways.

 

[freelancc]

or...


E. withdraw original $2,500 and play with the books money

 

[djv]

First off I would tell everyone to have at least two out lets toplay at. A 1/2 point differance can win you a couple extra plays a year. so make sure you can shop. Dont matter if its one on line and one local but have two forsure.
Next in the NFL If you can find more then 3 real good plays each week. Well your either real good or real dumb. I been doing this for 39 years. I went throug the hype chit of 10, 20 ,30 stars. Great nick names to draw you attention to plays. They all are no better then a good play capped well. If I find more then 3 real good plays each week in the NFL. Im pushing the results I use just to have extra action. There really not good plays.
In college because there are so many teams to work with. Here is where you can find 5 maybe 6 even 7 good plays some weeks.
Now use momey management. And if folowing someone here. Do not jump from one to another everyother week. Only if your real lucky will this work. In most cases your about to loose your ass.
Be real careful of the everyone on this game they cant lose. Like Pitt last night. What was it 80% for Pitt. Bang.

 

[StevieD]

Great thread.
I would assume that most of us hope to be here for the long term. With my accounts I raise and lower my unit total depending on my bankroll. It has been a roller coaster ride.
My goal would be to get good enough to have consistent enough winners so I can start withdrawing money. So far I feel lucky to be barely keeping my head above water. For myself i would be happy with small but steady returns,

 

[acehistr8]

And if folowing someone here. Do not jump from one to another everyother week. Only if your real lucky will this work. In most cases your about to loose your ass.
Be real careful of the everyone on this game they cant lose. Like Pitt last night. What was it 80% for Pitt. Bang.

Also cant count the number of times I see people pop in on someones picks for a night, they lose, say YOU SUCK and leave. Handicapping is a long term proposition, not a one night stand.

 

[yyz]

I still use the 1-4 unit method, with an extremely rare 5 unit play.

1 unit plays are plays that I can take or leave, but I see a slight advantage in taking it. (Situational play, avoid the sweep, etc)

2 unit plays are a normal wager.

3 and 4 unit plays are based on my perception of the line, and what it actually is. The farther out of whack, the higher the play.

I don't start betting more, or scaling back, based on my bankroll. I suppose you can, but I am a firm believer that things even out over time.

I just sent $500 to MVP to take advantage of their 50% bonus. That gave me $750 plus $49 in fees, so $800. I have to roll that over 5X's. I am not going to "play for the sake of playing", to get my cash rolled over. $4000 in plays will come overe time. As I stated, if I put $800 in a sixth month CD, I wouldn't see too much of a return. Still, people do this every day, and are satisfied with the return they get. My goal is to get that account to $950 and cash out for the Super Bowl party. I have two other accounts right now, and they both have more than they started with. I have taken some cash out of each of them, also. (What good is winning, if you don't treat yourself!)

By keeping my ballance small, I am less likely to make foolishly expensive wagers. If you start with $500, and get to $1000, you should certainly cash out! At least if you come back to $500, you have less room for error, and will keep your wagers in reason.

 

[dawgball]

I still use the 1-4 unit method, with an extremely rare 5 unit play.

Not to pick on you, yyz, because I see people say this ALL of the time. This is a 1-5 unit system. If you EVER bet 5 units, then you are on a 5 unit system. Just nick-picking, but I see people say this a lot.

But if this is the money thats in there for wagering, then I smally increase my bets upward.

I think this is kind of yyz's point. If the purpose of your money is to gamble with it, then you are, by all means, correct. But, if you are trying to make this an investment, then you are incorrect.

I see THUNDER, who is probably one of the top 3 cappers on this board, use the method of betting % of bankroll all of the time. This works for him because he consistently wins. I, unfortunately, am not one of the top cappers on the board, so I think my best route is to keep my units the same at all times. When I get hot and increase my amount based on %, I will most likely just get back to GO quicker.

I think most people here are above average cappers, but they are still losing gamblers. Not because of money management, but based on the fact that it is tough to beat this game (sports gambling). Poor money management just makes you lose your money faster. I would be willing to wager that if everyone on this board kept pristinely (?) accurate records, 90% of the posters would be on the losing end of the stick--including me. I don't care what system you use. I am not saying that there are not winners here because there are. I wouldn't be here if there wasn't. I am USING MJs as a place to listen to people that know this game better than I do.

I really enjoy this thread. Keep posting your opinions.

StevieD--Damn! We found something that we agree on!