The Philly-Boston game tonight shows:
PHI +1.5 (-110)
PHI PK (+105)
A $110 betwith the spread returns $100 to the lucky winner.
A $110 bet SU (+105) returns a whopping $115.50 to the bettor.
This means the ML pays you 15% more than the spread.
"Duh," you say, "but I'm getting ONE-AND-A-HALF points."
Well, from the Madjack database:
A check of the last 20 games Boston played where they were favored by 2 or less shows that the spread came into play ZERO times (that's *not* to say Boston covered 20 times).
A check of the last 20 games Philly played where they were a 2 point or less dog shows the spread came into play ZERO times (that's also not to say PHI covered 20 times).
These kinds of results hold true for almost every team out there. If you have more complete numbers, I'd like to see what you come up with.
The point spread would have to come into play roughly 15% of the time to cover the loss you're taking by betting the spread instead of the ML.
What it boils down to is this: If your team is getting 1-2 points, and your book offers a ML on that team (some don't for small spreads) of at least (+100), then go ahead and bet that ML.
TheShrimp
PS: These calculations were done after spending a little time at the database. If you have more accuracte figures (esp. ones that show the line comes into effect >10% of the time when its small), please share.
And yes, I will laugh mightily if boston wins by 1 tonight.
PHI +1.5 (-110)
PHI PK (+105)
A $110 betwith the spread returns $100 to the lucky winner.
A $110 bet SU (+105) returns a whopping $115.50 to the bettor.
This means the ML pays you 15% more than the spread.
"Duh," you say, "but I'm getting ONE-AND-A-HALF points."
Well, from the Madjack database:
A check of the last 20 games Boston played where they were favored by 2 or less shows that the spread came into play ZERO times (that's *not* to say Boston covered 20 times).
A check of the last 20 games Philly played where they were a 2 point or less dog shows the spread came into play ZERO times (that's also not to say PHI covered 20 times).
These kinds of results hold true for almost every team out there. If you have more complete numbers, I'd like to see what you come up with.
The point spread would have to come into play roughly 15% of the time to cover the loss you're taking by betting the spread instead of the ML.
What it boils down to is this: If your team is getting 1-2 points, and your book offers a ML on that team (some don't for small spreads) of at least (+100), then go ahead and bet that ML.
TheShrimp
PS: These calculations were done after spending a little time at the database. If you have more accuracte figures (esp. ones that show the line comes into effect >10% of the time when its small), please share.
And yes, I will laugh mightily if boston wins by 1 tonight.
