When you travel to WIS, you better bring an extra mouth piece,might lose one. Can't wait to watch this Brawl.I read two things about this game that made me laugh.#1 :ILL was pulling for wis the other day because they want to be the team to stop the streak. #2 : some sport writer had this in his rapp;"the reason Ill is so tough is that they got seven guys that can knock down some shots".Thats sweet but,the reason wis is so tough @ home is,they got seven guys that will knock you out!I look at this ILL team and see 3 big guys that have-been of no use in this match-up,Carter,Smith and Ingram. NO CHANCE FOR ILL. back with more on this game later...
ILL @ WISCONSIN
- Thread starter bryanz
- Start date
:mj07:
Be very careful what you say about the Illini, they will roll Wisky. I dont care about their home streak or that "they will knock you out," Illinois will run circles around them tonight and Wisconsin will not be able to keep up. Wisconsin is a lot like the Gonzaga team that Illinios destroyed earlier in the year. Illinois wins by 10.
Be very careful what you say about the Illini, they will roll Wisky. I dont care about their home streak or that "they will knock you out," Illinois will run circles around them tonight and Wisconsin will not be able to keep up. Wisconsin is a lot like the Gonzaga team that Illinios destroyed earlier in the year. Illinois wins by 10.
GL Bryan whatever you play!! I will be following you from now on. I was very impressed with your NMST pick last night and your overall record.....This game is a complete pass for me, but I'm gonna enjoy watching it.
Fabulous, Why do think Gonzaga is similar to Wisconsin? Seems to me they have different styles of play. Illinois would have a different plan for Zaga. Love to see Wisky win, but no pick for me.
the fact that wisky, with their home streak and as home dogs, are still only drawing from 10-30% of the action, and yet the line is moving in wisky's favor, tells me all i want to know.
I have to respond.NO WAY CAN YOU COMPARE THIS BIG TEN TEAM TO THE ZAGS.I agree with you on the run around part.Syracuse reject mr brown,williams and head,will all be running around the arc,putting up 3's because they won't get enough points inside from the likes of the great 6-10 augustine who scored 8 & 9 points against wis last yr.Wilkinson & Tucker should combine for 40points.Wis will lean on these guys all night and wear them down with 6-9/245 helmigk,6-8/225morley,6-8 215/ nixon.The addition of chambliss,taylor and 6-11 butch gives this team huge depth.Webers boy's are good but not tough enough.Is there anyone on this great ILL team that has a clew to closing the gap on that 20 pt ass whooping they had put on them last year.My only question for you is WHO'S # 1 TOMORROW!!!!!!
..............................................................loophole said:
loop
what is that telling you?
thanks
Bryan,
Wilkinson will get his points, probably. I will give you the advantage in that matchup (over Augustine) but Illinois has the advantage at the other 4 positions. However, Illinois plays swarming defense and it will not be Wilkinson on Augustine. When the ball comes into Wilkinson there will be a host of orange surrounding him. Illinois will be able to focus more on him this year as Devon Harris is gone and so is your backcourt threat. Illinois' 3-headed monster guard tandom will destroy the Wisky backcourt. Wisconsin will try to bang down low, but the Illini are physcial and very quick and I Wisky will run into foul trouble trying to keep up with Illinois' speed (that is, if the refs are even slightly impartial).
My earlier reference to Gonzaga was not so much as to style but in the fact that they have a big physical frontcourt and it was said that Illinios would be very overmatched in the front court but that simply didnt happen.
Tomorrow Illinois will still be #1, guarunteed, put it in writing.
Wilkinson will get his points, probably. I will give you the advantage in that matchup (over Augustine) but Illinois has the advantage at the other 4 positions. However, Illinois plays swarming defense and it will not be Wilkinson on Augustine. When the ball comes into Wilkinson there will be a host of orange surrounding him. Illinois will be able to focus more on him this year as Devon Harris is gone and so is your backcourt threat. Illinois' 3-headed monster guard tandom will destroy the Wisky backcourt. Wisconsin will try to bang down low, but the Illini are physcial and very quick and I Wisky will run into foul trouble trying to keep up with Illinois' speed (that is, if the refs are even slightly impartial).
My earlier reference to Gonzaga was not so much as to style but in the fact that they have a big physical frontcourt and it was said that Illinios would be very overmatched in the front court but that simply didnt happen.
Tomorrow Illinois will still be #1, guarunteed, put it in writing.
scott,
to respond to your question completely would take so many words as to hijack bryanz's thread, which i am not inclined to do. but i will say this in short. i rarely try to out-handicap vegas, although i do on some infrequent occassions, to mixed results (see last night's play on ga southern). i believe the linesmakers are most likely better than me at handicapping games so, unless i'm sure i know something that hasn't been reflected in the line, trying to outcap vegas is just not going to work out in the long run.
i do, however, believe that the betting lines are market-driven and that this market approach almost always makes money for the sportsbooks, except when some smart-money guys outwit them (no, i'm not there yet).
ok, let's look at tonight's ill/wisky game. although there is a certain amount of debatable quantification that goes into various power ratings, most that i find credible would make wisconsin a 1 and a half to two point favorite with the awesome home court edge they carry. yet the books can make the line at illinois -1- and still draw 70-90% of the action on the illinii. many would cry that this line is begging for wisky money but it's really not. what the books are ending up with is a stake in wisconsin at a grossly favorable line, which, contrary to popular opinion, i believe is what they really want (exhibit a - last week's indy/ne playoff game).
in short, imo, no matter what line the book makes, you cannot consistently win betting the side that carrries the heavy majority of the action, as you will not be getting full value.
hope that helps. g/l
to respond to your question completely would take so many words as to hijack bryanz's thread, which i am not inclined to do. but i will say this in short. i rarely try to out-handicap vegas, although i do on some infrequent occassions, to mixed results (see last night's play on ga southern). i believe the linesmakers are most likely better than me at handicapping games so, unless i'm sure i know something that hasn't been reflected in the line, trying to outcap vegas is just not going to work out in the long run.
i do, however, believe that the betting lines are market-driven and that this market approach almost always makes money for the sportsbooks, except when some smart-money guys outwit them (no, i'm not there yet).
ok, let's look at tonight's ill/wisky game. although there is a certain amount of debatable quantification that goes into various power ratings, most that i find credible would make wisconsin a 1 and a half to two point favorite with the awesome home court edge they carry. yet the books can make the line at illinois -1- and still draw 70-90% of the action on the illinii. many would cry that this line is begging for wisky money but it's really not. what the books are ending up with is a stake in wisconsin at a grossly favorable line, which, contrary to popular opinion, i believe is what they really want (exhibit a - last week's indy/ne playoff game).
in short, imo, no matter what line the book makes, you cannot consistently win betting the side that carrries the heavy majority of the action, as you will not be getting full value.
hope that helps. g/l
FAB
FAB
I can't see ILL having an advantage at the other 4 spots,and I wont debate this thing man by man,but Tucker can play inside or out and plays much bigger than his size,you will be impressed.the key for me is Wis team approach to defense.ILL has used the 3pt shot more than most & wis has held teams to 28% from behind the arc and 59pts per game.Wis will control the tempo.You being such a big fan,should see this coming,I have no bias,just trying to make some cash. For your sake hope they shoot the rock better than they did against Iowa.This game will be played in the 60's,low 70's max...
FAB
I can't see ILL having an advantage at the other 4 spots,and I wont debate this thing man by man,but Tucker can play inside or out and plays much bigger than his size,you will be impressed.the key for me is Wis team approach to defense.ILL has used the 3pt shot more than most & wis has held teams to 28% from behind the arc and 59pts per game.Wis will control the tempo.You being such a big fan,should see this coming,I have no bias,just trying to make some cash. For your sake hope they shoot the rock better than they did against Iowa.This game will be played in the 60's,low 70's max...
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ILLINOIS' guard play is the best in the nation,..... that will absolutely overcome the matchups down low.
Make sure you pull out your rabbit's foot if your taking Wisky, because the Illini are no jokes this year.
Make sure you pull out your rabbit's foot if your taking Wisky, because the Illini are no jokes this year.
Loophole,
How can you justify Wisky being a 1.5-2 point favorite when they were only a 1point favorite/pick against Mich State only 9 days ago. Mich St was ranked 16th and dont have anywhere near the talent of Illinios yet you think the accurate line on would prevail Wisky a higher favorite over Illinois than MSU? That makes no sense. Wisky did win that game and cover but only becuase MSU choked and Wisky ended the game and the final 2 minutes on an 12-0 run to win by 3. If they play anywhere near that way tonight they will find themselves down by 20.
Also, I have always been curious as to where people look when they say that 90% of the action is on one team etc? There are a hell of a lot of casinos with vegas, offshore etc, how does one ever quantify the total %?
How can you justify Wisky being a 1.5-2 point favorite when they were only a 1point favorite/pick against Mich State only 9 days ago. Mich St was ranked 16th and dont have anywhere near the talent of Illinios yet you think the accurate line on would prevail Wisky a higher favorite over Illinois than MSU? That makes no sense. Wisky did win that game and cover but only becuase MSU choked and Wisky ended the game and the final 2 minutes on an 12-0 run to win by 3. If they play anywhere near that way tonight they will find themselves down by 20.
Also, I have always been curious as to where people look when they say that 90% of the action is on one team etc? There are a hell of a lot of casinos with vegas, offshore etc, how does one ever quantify the total %?
fabulous,
i think it would be fair to say i thought wisconsin should have been favored by more over mich st. while you can never know precisely where the action is, you can get a pretty good idea. i posted a couple of sites in another thread where vyrus asked for the info.
does anyone doubt that the public is heavy on illinois tonight?
i think it would be fair to say i thought wisconsin should have been favored by more over mich st. while you can never know precisely where the action is, you can get a pretty good idea. i posted a couple of sites in another thread where vyrus asked for the info.
does anyone doubt that the public is heavy on illinois tonight?
some other betting plays i would be wary of tonight - uconn, st joes, akron, st johns, kansas, texas, kentucky, tenn tech. that being said, several of those teams will probably cover tonight - i'm guessing 35-45% over the long haul. of course the implications of those numbers are obvious.
anyway, that's my theory and i'm sticking to it.
anyway, that's my theory and i'm sticking to it.
Loophole,
I am not knocking your theory. I very rarely find myself on the same side as the public, because Vegas always wins. Last week for example, I was the only one out of everyone I knew who liked the Patriots over Indy. When the line moved from NE -3.5 to +1 I doubled my bet because I knew the public was on Indy.
Tonight however the line has not moved yet people say public is all over Illinios. If that is the case why has the line stayed stagnent? Just wanted to know what your source was for saying the public is all over Illinois?
I am not knocking your theory. I very rarely find myself on the same side as the public, because Vegas always wins. Last week for example, I was the only one out of everyone I knew who liked the Patriots over Indy. When the line moved from NE -3.5 to +1 I doubled my bet because I knew the public was on Indy.
Tonight however the line has not moved yet people say public is all over Illinios. If that is the case why has the line stayed stagnent? Just wanted to know what your source was for saying the public is all over Illinois?
