I'm Always Guessing

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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For Starters: Tampa Bay Defending against Michael Vick

When I watched the first Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta game on TV, the color analyst (I believe it was Tim Green or Bill Maas) related his Saturday night discussion with Tampa coordinator Monte Kiffin on their plans for defending against Michael Vick. Kiffen essentially said their "simple key was to NOT have their pass rushers get past Vick" (i.e. don't give him easy escape lanes up or out). Shortly thereafter Vick was knocked out of the game (4 of 11 passing for 37 yards; sacked 3 times; 1 rushing yard on 1 carry; the score was either 6-3 Atlanta or 10-6 Tampa). Before getting injured, I was able to watch the Tampa pass rush for a few plays and could see how the game plan was being followed.

The Tampa Defense brings a lot to the table to implement whatever game plan they come up with, like an ability to get consistent pressure with the front four, stuff the run, speed and pursuit, solid tackling, disciplined assignments, maintaining their coverages and forcing mistakes. I recommend looking at the other side of the coin and noting that if Tampa does the impossible and contains Vick's damage from elusiveness and forces him to beat them with his arm, Vick at his best has a rifle and it is that arm that is certainly the key if we are looking back a decade from now and saying the freak revolutionized the QB position. Vick is dynamite and taking steps forward week after week. Teams adjust and the Bucs have issues of their own.

I'm going to post some newspaper excerpts from after that first game and some excerpts of more recent vintage. Anything in this post is just being offered as information. Just information.

I watch the Bucs playing the best defense in the league and the whole team being engaged in their winning ways, and they are now coming home in a bounceback situation against an overachieving team looking to sweep a 3 game road trip (when Green Bay pulled the trick in 1997 against Minnesota, Tampa and Carolina (how is that for a coincidence?), I believe they were the second team to do so since the merger or some ancient date, and that it may be unmatched since).

I'm not suggesting Tampa is the best play or best value on the board (I'm glad the line made it to -3' so I could buy it down to -3). But as a fan of the Packer's in their quest for home field advantage, I'm not looking for Tampa to go down to defeat today.


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(The) Tampa Bay defense that did nothing special to combat Vick's elusiveness. The Bucs, instead, just executed their individual assignments to near-perfection

``We knew if we could eliminate his scrambling ability, his threat outside the corners and inside the pocket, we'd really have a chance to win this game,'' defensive tackle Warren Sapp said.

Vick on the Bucs defense: "They locked up and just played us straight up. They were tough. They were good. I don't think they were that fast. They were just good."

Running back T.J. Duckett: "Their speed is unbelievable. They are just everywhere."


``I don't think they were that fast on defense, they were just good,'' Vick said. ``Those guys were smart and they knew their assignments. They were in the right places at the right times and they just didn't make any mistakes. They really didn't give us a chance to make big plays downfield.''

"They make you take what they give you. We just couldn't consistently move the ball." -- Falcons Coach Dan Reeves

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(Kiffen) is using the same basic philosophies but has added a few wrinkles. Blitz packages have changed, personnel groupings have evolved. More than anything, with Gruden's urging, Kiffin has turned up the demands placed on players. No one is cruising through games at half speed.

"The coaches are raising their standards on us. They're expecting more," linebacker Derrick Brooks said.

"It's the same system with added attitude."

There are other factors. Brooks and Warren Sapp are having exceptional seasons after playing with injuries in 2001.

Dexter Jackson and Brian Kelly have gotten much better after shaky debuts as starters last season.

Simeon Rice is more comfortable in his second year in the system, as are assistant coaches Joe Barry and Mike Tomlin.

Yet, they all point to Kiffin as the guy who is making it work.
He is making the calls. He is raising the bar. The Bucs will go as far as their defense will take them

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Atlanta's Michael Vick presents the greatest challenge to the defense so far. Vick isn't the same quarterback the Bucs faced on Oct. 6 in their 20-6 victory. In that game, Bucs DE Simeon Rice knocked Vick out of the game with a sack in the third quarter.

Vick leads the Falcons with 648 rushing yards and averages 8.1 yards per carry. But just because Vick has improved since their first meeting, doesn't mean the Bucs are going to change their game plan.

``We're going to live in our hopes, not in our fears,'' Gruden said. ``We have got to get to the quarterback. We've got to congest running lanes in the process. If Michael Vick does find a crease and puts the ball down and run, we've got to rally. At the same time, we respect everything we see from this guy. He is one dangerous runner.

``But at the same time, we've got to do what we do on defense: mix up our looks, utilize our team speed and be relentless as we attack the pocket.''

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After losing their season opener to New Orleans, the Bucs won five consecutive games. Then, after losing to Philadelphia in late October, they won four in a row.

The Bucs even bounced back Sunday, rallying for a late touchdown and 2-point conversion that put them within a field goal of a tie with 2:49 to play.

``Let me tell you something, these guys on this team have got a lot of character,'' quarterback Brad Johnson said. ``We came back and ran off some wins after that first loss to New Orleans and we ran off some more after we lost to Philly and we can do it again. This is a tough group of guys and they don't quit.''

No one has ever questioned the Bucs' toughness or resolve. Their ability to run the ball has been in question all year, though, and those questions surfaced again in the wake of their latest loss.

A team that admittedly has struggled to stop the run all season, the Saints limited the Bucs to 34 rushing yards despite facing them on an artificial surface that should have increased the Bucs' quickness and productivity.

``From the single-back set, from the two-back set, double- tight end set, balanced formation, it wasn't very good,'' Gruden said Monday of the Bucs' rushing attack. ``All I can say is that we take it very personally and are very disappointed in the results.''

The Bucs also are concerned. Their lack of an effective running game has, at times, given them a one-dimensional offense. They aren't likely to beat many quality opponents or go far in the playoffs with that.

``Yes, it's concerning to me,'' Gruden said of the running game, which ranks 31st in the league. ``But at the same time, there were plenty of opportunities for the Buccaneers to have won this game.''

Turnovers accounted for a few of those wasted opportunities, and some could be directly related to the lack of a running game. Without an effective ground attack, the Bucs were blitzed heavily in third- and-long situations, forcing Johnson to fumble twice and throw an interception.

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GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
I still have to figure out the best way to track my record since my change of course last week. This is how I'm playing it again this week:

A) I need to cap the games and pull the trigger and not just simulate the experience. Regrettably, the only acceptable risk left for any meaningful recovery is with parlays.
B) Totals have been underplayed.
C) I need to fade myself.

Through Thanksgiving : 20-47 (-38.00*)
After Thanksgiving: ?-? (+3.10*)(Is hedging the 4th leg of a parlay a winner? etc.)


THIS WEEK:

(A) Parlay for 1* @ 11/1:
- Kansas City(-5)
- Tampa Bay(-3)
- Indianapolis(+2)
- Seattle(+3)

(B) Parlay for 1* @ 2.6/1:
- San Francisco/Dallas(Un 40)
- Cleveland/Jacksonville(Un 41)

(C-1) "The Fade #1" Parlay for 0.5* @ 2.6/1:
- Philadelphia(-3)
- Tennessee(+1)

(C-2) "The Fade #2" Parlay for 0.5* @ 2.6/1:
- Atlanta(+3')
- St. Louis(+4')

PLUS: Kansas City(-4') for 1*
It's almost hard to imagine this being the spot the Chief's season goes to die.

NOTES:
- Reid vs. Holmgren: How much can the Eagles have left in the tank?; The injury plagued Seahags have respectable depth and I am expecting no lack of good December fight; this is entirely a situational play that contrasts with the bad matchups reflected in the 27-3 thrashing Philadelphia administered in Seattle on 9/23/01.

GL


EDIT: Revised lines as bet.

GL
 
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