...and I can't.
I'm looking at this from every angle I can, and I can't find a legitimate reason to take the Jets.
Motivation:
Tennessee has a chance to take the lead alone in their division, giving them a chance at a first-round bye in the process. NY's season is done; all they can do is play the spoiler. Possibly you could argue Tennessee may overlook this game with Indy on deck next. Unlikely however, I think.
Performance:
Tennessee has lost just twice this year. Both defeats were against teams which are top-echelon clubs (Indianapolis and New England). They've had a couple scares. such as last week @ Atlanta...but they came back nicely in that game and took control. Jacksonville kept it close the whole way, but it appears the Jags defence is improving. The Jets don't have a defence that is anywhere near comparable to that at this point in the season. In all but two games this year the Titans have put up 25 points or more. 25 points scored should be enough to win most games, and certainly looks possible here.
The Jets have just four wins...all against losing clubs, which vary in talent from mediocre to awful (Buffalo, Houston, Oakland, Jacksonville). Only the Buffalo win was decisive. Against good clubs they have routinely lost by 7 pts or more, be it home or away. They've played very few clubs in the past 8 weeks with good defences. Buf...Hou...Phil...NYG...Oak...Indy...Jax. Very few good defences there. Buf, Phil and Indy all defend the pass reasonably well (better than the Titans), but none of those 7 teams comes close to stopping the run as well as Tennessee.
Titans come in with 6 straight wins, and 8 of 9. Jets have performed marginally better of late, winning 2 of 3 and 4 of 7, after starting 0-4.
Stats:
I'm not a big statistical handicapper...but...Tennessee has a huge edge in turnover ratio, and that's important. I'll let someone else go into all the numbers...they mostly favor Tennessee I am sure. I've gotten away from handicapping games this way because when I get too heavy into the numbers I start losing. But it works for others.
Matchups:
The Jets DO defend against the pass somewhat well; better than most of the opponents Tenn has faced. Jets are horrible against the run. The Titans running game has started to show a little more promise of late.
On the other side of the ball...the Jets have had trouble running all year long, and Tenn is the best at stopping the run. Titans pass D may be a bit vulnerable.
So it appears both teams should be throwing the ball a lot, trying to exploit each other's weaknesses. But at least Tennessee CAN run the ball if they have to (I think), whereas NYJ should have extreme difficulty on the ground.
The Betting Line:
You know, sometimes you see a line and just feel it's wrong. I won't call it a "sucker" line...but it looks a little too easy, and it isn't. TB on SNF may have been one of those. Sometimes you get the feeling the linemaker is just screwing with your head. He probably is. You bet on a line that looks so easy, it loses. The next time you think twice before you do that. Then you start going against yourself, taking teams you think will lose or don't like, and before you know it you're all f*cked up and haven't got a clue what direction you're going in.
I think most Joe Public players will be all over Tennessee. But in this case I think they've got a winner. For those of us who are primarily dog-players --- we can get so wrapped up in contrarianism at times that I think maybe we tend to overthink things and overlook the obvious. I mean, sometimes it just is what it is. (I don't know if this is making any sense or if I am just over-tired, but it makes sense to me). This game, I think, is one of those games that I think just is what it is. A Titans win and cover.
The Titans are the better team, with a purpose and a goal...a top-tier team. They had their scare last week and survived it. I'm inclined to believe that they are strong enough and well-prepared enough, that they do not cough up what should be a fairly easy win.
I don't know, I see a line like this, I go hunting for why it's where it's at. I don't think Tenn -4 to -4? would be unreasonable. I'll take it.
Strong play for me.
Good luck all.
I'm looking at this from every angle I can, and I can't find a legitimate reason to take the Jets.
Motivation:
Tennessee has a chance to take the lead alone in their division, giving them a chance at a first-round bye in the process. NY's season is done; all they can do is play the spoiler. Possibly you could argue Tennessee may overlook this game with Indy on deck next. Unlikely however, I think.
Performance:
Tennessee has lost just twice this year. Both defeats were against teams which are top-echelon clubs (Indianapolis and New England). They've had a couple scares. such as last week @ Atlanta...but they came back nicely in that game and took control. Jacksonville kept it close the whole way, but it appears the Jags defence is improving. The Jets don't have a defence that is anywhere near comparable to that at this point in the season. In all but two games this year the Titans have put up 25 points or more. 25 points scored should be enough to win most games, and certainly looks possible here.
The Jets have just four wins...all against losing clubs, which vary in talent from mediocre to awful (Buffalo, Houston, Oakland, Jacksonville). Only the Buffalo win was decisive. Against good clubs they have routinely lost by 7 pts or more, be it home or away. They've played very few clubs in the past 8 weeks with good defences. Buf...Hou...Phil...NYG...Oak...Indy...Jax. Very few good defences there. Buf, Phil and Indy all defend the pass reasonably well (better than the Titans), but none of those 7 teams comes close to stopping the run as well as Tennessee.
Titans come in with 6 straight wins, and 8 of 9. Jets have performed marginally better of late, winning 2 of 3 and 4 of 7, after starting 0-4.
Stats:
I'm not a big statistical handicapper...but...Tennessee has a huge edge in turnover ratio, and that's important. I'll let someone else go into all the numbers...they mostly favor Tennessee I am sure. I've gotten away from handicapping games this way because when I get too heavy into the numbers I start losing. But it works for others.
Matchups:
The Jets DO defend against the pass somewhat well; better than most of the opponents Tenn has faced. Jets are horrible against the run. The Titans running game has started to show a little more promise of late.
On the other side of the ball...the Jets have had trouble running all year long, and Tenn is the best at stopping the run. Titans pass D may be a bit vulnerable.
So it appears both teams should be throwing the ball a lot, trying to exploit each other's weaknesses. But at least Tennessee CAN run the ball if they have to (I think), whereas NYJ should have extreme difficulty on the ground.
The Betting Line:
You know, sometimes you see a line and just feel it's wrong. I won't call it a "sucker" line...but it looks a little too easy, and it isn't. TB on SNF may have been one of those. Sometimes you get the feeling the linemaker is just screwing with your head. He probably is. You bet on a line that looks so easy, it loses. The next time you think twice before you do that. Then you start going against yourself, taking teams you think will lose or don't like, and before you know it you're all f*cked up and haven't got a clue what direction you're going in.
I think most Joe Public players will be all over Tennessee. But in this case I think they've got a winner. For those of us who are primarily dog-players --- we can get so wrapped up in contrarianism at times that I think maybe we tend to overthink things and overlook the obvious. I mean, sometimes it just is what it is. (I don't know if this is making any sense or if I am just over-tired, but it makes sense to me). This game, I think, is one of those games that I think just is what it is. A Titans win and cover.
The Titans are the better team, with a purpose and a goal...a top-tier team. They had their scare last week and survived it. I'm inclined to believe that they are strong enough and well-prepared enough, that they do not cough up what should be a fairly easy win.
I don't know, I see a line like this, I go hunting for why it's where it's at. I don't think Tenn -4 to -4? would be unreasonable. I'll take it.
Strong play for me.
Good luck all.
