Probably both teams locked into their seeds besides a flip flop if Indiana wins.
Last November Ohio State thumped Indiana 38-13 in a more meaningful game in November for seeding. Mendoza is an upgrade at QB though. Both QBS playing for Heisman Trophy. Do both teams go all out and risk injury and go deep into playbooks. Should any of this and below be considered or handicap this without this information?
Jeremiah Smith is going against 5.9 All American Defensive back. Huge size advantage. Thought I should mention.
The best common opponent with a semblance of strength on both sides was Penn State and Ohio State Dominated them on both score and offense and defense metrics. Indiana barely won and were even on both sides of metrics.
Ohio State's defense in 2025 is ranked #1 nationally by most metrics, leading in points per game, yards per game, and stop rate, but their havoc rate (turnovers/TFLs) is surprisingly lower (around 38th) because they excel at overall dominance, suffocating offenses with elite efficiency (low success rates, yards per play) rather than relying solely on forced turnovers, though they still rank top-10 in havoc.
Key Defensive Rankings & Metrics (2025 Season):
Overall Rank: #1 Nationally (SP+, points, yards).
Points Per Game (PPG): ~7.8 PPG (1st).
Yards Per Game (YPG): ~203 YPG (1st).
Stop Rate: #1 (84.2% after Week 8).
Yards Per Play: 3.77 (1st).
Points Per Drive: 0.79 (1st).
Havoc Rate: ~38th (17.2%).
Pass Defense: #1 in yards per dropback allowed (3.9).
Key Takeaway:
Ohio State's defense isn't defined by high-volume havoc plays (like Indiana's), but by elite, suffocating efficiency, consistently shutting down offenses through relentless pressure, stifling passing, and third-down stops, making them arguably one of the best defenses ever.
The Indiana Hoosiers have a top-tier defense in 2025, ranking highly in total yards allowed (around 4th nationally at ~250 YPG), very strong against the run (2nd nationally in rushing yards allowed), and effective in creating chaos, often appearing as the #1 or #2 most "havoc-minded" defense in the FBS according to metrics like tackles for loss, forced fumbles, and interceptions, often cited by Action Network and FOX Sports.
Key Defensive Rankings & Metrics (2025 Season):
Total Defense: Around 4th nationally, allowing roughly 250 yards per game.
Rushing Defense: Excellent, ranking 2nd nationally, giving up only about 79 yards per game.
Pass Defense: 14th best in the FBS, allowing ~172 yards per game.
Defensive Havoc: Frequently ranked as the #1 or #2 defense in the entire FBS for creating negative plays (TFLs, PBU, INTs, FF).
Points Allowed: Highly ranked, around 2nd in the nation, with ~11.6 points per game.
Why They're Good:
They combine elite run-stopping with the ability to generate significant pressure and takeaways.
They use a varied scheme with coverages like Cover 2, 3, 4, 1, and zone blitzes.
In short, the Indiana Hoosiers' defense is a dominant force in college football for the 2025 season, excelling at both preventing big plays and disrupting offenses.
Ryan Day's incentives for winning the Big Ten Championship at Ohio State involve substantial financial bonuses, with figures varying slightly by contract year but generally including hundreds of thousands of dollars for reaching and winning the game, plus additional amounts for CFP berths, national titles, Coach of the Year awards, and even academic success (GPA) of his team, adding significant financial perks to his already large salary for achieving these football milestones.
Key Incentives for Winning the Big Ten Championship:
Big Ten Championship Game Bonus: A significant payout, potentially around $100,000 or more, for making the game, with an even larger sum for winning it,.
College Football Playoff (CFP) Bonuses: Reaching the CFP and advancing (quarterfinals, semifinals) triggers substantial bonuses, as seen with a $200,000 bonus for a CFP bid and more for deeper runs in some contracts,.
National Championship Bonus: A massive incentive, with reported bonuses like $350,000 or even $1 million for winning the national title,.
Coach of the Year Awards: Bonuses for Big Ten Coach of the Year ($50,000) and National Coach of the Year ($75,000-$100,000).
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has significant incentives for a conference championship and College Football Playoff run, including a $1 million bonus for winning the Big Ten Championship and up to $2 million for winning the National Championship.
Big Ten Championship Incentives
Cignetti's contract provides a clear bonus structure for conference performance. The bonuses are not cumulative, meaning only the highest-achieved bonus applies.
Top Six Finish: $250,000
Second Place Finish: $500,000
Big Ten Championship Win: $1,000,000
College Football Playoff (CFP) Incentives
The incentives increase substantially with CFP success. Similar to the conference bonuses, these incentives are not cumulative, and the highest finish determines the payout.
CFP First Round Appearance: $500,000
CFP Quarterfinal Appearance: $600,000
CFP Semifinal Appearance: $700,000
CFP National Runner-Up: $1,000,000
CFP National Champions: $2,000,000
Additionally, if Indiana reaches the CFP semifinals, the university must conduct a "good faith review" of his contract to potentially increase his annual salary to rank among the top three highest-paid active coaches who competed in the CFP. If the university fails to agree to new salary terms, Cignetti's buyout would drop to zero if he chooses to leave for another job.
Other Potential Bonuses
Cignetti can also earn additional bonuses for individual awards:
Big Ten Coach of the Year: $50,000
Major National Coach of the Year: $100,000
My conclusion . If this game was a college playoff game Ohio State at -3.5 is a gimme. Its not so please chime in smarter heads?
Last November Ohio State thumped Indiana 38-13 in a more meaningful game in November for seeding. Mendoza is an upgrade at QB though. Both QBS playing for Heisman Trophy. Do both teams go all out and risk injury and go deep into playbooks. Should any of this and below be considered or handicap this without this information?
Jeremiah Smith is going against 5.9 All American Defensive back. Huge size advantage. Thought I should mention.
The best common opponent with a semblance of strength on both sides was Penn State and Ohio State Dominated them on both score and offense and defense metrics. Indiana barely won and were even on both sides of metrics.
Ohio State's defense in 2025 is ranked #1 nationally by most metrics, leading in points per game, yards per game, and stop rate, but their havoc rate (turnovers/TFLs) is surprisingly lower (around 38th) because they excel at overall dominance, suffocating offenses with elite efficiency (low success rates, yards per play) rather than relying solely on forced turnovers, though they still rank top-10 in havoc.
Key Defensive Rankings & Metrics (2025 Season):
Overall Rank: #1 Nationally (SP+, points, yards).
Points Per Game (PPG): ~7.8 PPG (1st).
Yards Per Game (YPG): ~203 YPG (1st).
Stop Rate: #1 (84.2% after Week 8).
Yards Per Play: 3.77 (1st).
Points Per Drive: 0.79 (1st).
Havoc Rate: ~38th (17.2%).
Pass Defense: #1 in yards per dropback allowed (3.9).
Key Takeaway:
Ohio State's defense isn't defined by high-volume havoc plays (like Indiana's), but by elite, suffocating efficiency, consistently shutting down offenses through relentless pressure, stifling passing, and third-down stops, making them arguably one of the best defenses ever.
The Indiana Hoosiers have a top-tier defense in 2025, ranking highly in total yards allowed (around 4th nationally at ~250 YPG), very strong against the run (2nd nationally in rushing yards allowed), and effective in creating chaos, often appearing as the #1 or #2 most "havoc-minded" defense in the FBS according to metrics like tackles for loss, forced fumbles, and interceptions, often cited by Action Network and FOX Sports.
Key Defensive Rankings & Metrics (2025 Season):
Total Defense: Around 4th nationally, allowing roughly 250 yards per game.
Rushing Defense: Excellent, ranking 2nd nationally, giving up only about 79 yards per game.
Pass Defense: 14th best in the FBS, allowing ~172 yards per game.
Defensive Havoc: Frequently ranked as the #1 or #2 defense in the entire FBS for creating negative plays (TFLs, PBU, INTs, FF).
Points Allowed: Highly ranked, around 2nd in the nation, with ~11.6 points per game.
Why They're Good:
They combine elite run-stopping with the ability to generate significant pressure and takeaways.
They use a varied scheme with coverages like Cover 2, 3, 4, 1, and zone blitzes.
In short, the Indiana Hoosiers' defense is a dominant force in college football for the 2025 season, excelling at both preventing big plays and disrupting offenses.
Ryan Day's incentives for winning the Big Ten Championship at Ohio State involve substantial financial bonuses, with figures varying slightly by contract year but generally including hundreds of thousands of dollars for reaching and winning the game, plus additional amounts for CFP berths, national titles, Coach of the Year awards, and even academic success (GPA) of his team, adding significant financial perks to his already large salary for achieving these football milestones.
Key Incentives for Winning the Big Ten Championship:
Big Ten Championship Game Bonus: A significant payout, potentially around $100,000 or more, for making the game, with an even larger sum for winning it,.
College Football Playoff (CFP) Bonuses: Reaching the CFP and advancing (quarterfinals, semifinals) triggers substantial bonuses, as seen with a $200,000 bonus for a CFP bid and more for deeper runs in some contracts,.
National Championship Bonus: A massive incentive, with reported bonuses like $350,000 or even $1 million for winning the national title,.
Coach of the Year Awards: Bonuses for Big Ten Coach of the Year ($50,000) and National Coach of the Year ($75,000-$100,000).
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has significant incentives for a conference championship and College Football Playoff run, including a $1 million bonus for winning the Big Ten Championship and up to $2 million for winning the National Championship.
Big Ten Championship Incentives
Cignetti's contract provides a clear bonus structure for conference performance. The bonuses are not cumulative, meaning only the highest-achieved bonus applies.
Top Six Finish: $250,000
Second Place Finish: $500,000
Big Ten Championship Win: $1,000,000
College Football Playoff (CFP) Incentives
The incentives increase substantially with CFP success. Similar to the conference bonuses, these incentives are not cumulative, and the highest finish determines the payout.
CFP First Round Appearance: $500,000
CFP Quarterfinal Appearance: $600,000
CFP Semifinal Appearance: $700,000
CFP National Runner-Up: $1,000,000
CFP National Champions: $2,000,000
Additionally, if Indiana reaches the CFP semifinals, the university must conduct a "good faith review" of his contract to potentially increase his annual salary to rank among the top three highest-paid active coaches who competed in the CFP. If the university fails to agree to new salary terms, Cignetti's buyout would drop to zero if he chooses to leave for another job.
Other Potential Bonuses
Cignetti can also earn additional bonuses for individual awards:
Big Ten Coach of the Year: $50,000
Major National Coach of the Year: $100,000
My conclusion . If this game was a college playoff game Ohio State at -3.5 is a gimme. Its not so please chime in smarter heads?
