Indy +3

DR STRANGELOVE

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Indianapolis (+3) at Kansas City



Kansas City has not been playing well as of late. They are only 4-3 overall and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Indianapolis, meanwhile is hot. Peyton Manning posted a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating in the dismantling of Denver last week. Indy is also nails on the road. They are 7-1 overall away from the RCA Dome and Peyton Manning is 2-0 in his career at Arrowhead, a 35-28 victory in 2001 and a 27-14 score in 2000. In fact, Indy is 5-0 both straight up and ATS against Kansas City since 1993. Four of those victories came in KC. Indy is 4-1 ATS in their last five at KC. Kansas City fans hearken back to 1995 when Jim Harbaugh led Indianapolis into Kansas City for a playoff game and came away with a hard fought 10-7 victory. Kansas City also has a history of underachieving. Case in point is 1995, Kansas City was 13-3 in the regular season only to lose that home playoff game to Indy. They followed the exact same script two years later, losing at home to Denver in the playoffs, 14-10. This year, Kansas City was again 13-3 in the regular season and??? Tony Dungy has not backed away from any challenge this year (case in point, that Monday night victory at Tampa) and will not start now. Coach Dungy will ensure that his team will not rest on its laurels and is focused on the Super Bowl in Houston. Edgerrin James has extra motivation in returning to Kansas City, as that is where his season ending knee injury occurred in 2001. He was quoted as saying he wants ?to go back to where it all started? and come full circle. Dick Vermeil is known as a coach who is extremely well prepared, however, one has to question his wisdom in having his team practice only once during the bye week. If Kansas City wins, it was a brilliant move designed to give his team a much needed rest. If they lose, it will be because they are rusty.
 
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bombercoops

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Dr SL, you are the first person I have heard this week mention indy as one of your plays and from the moment i saw the line I liked it to. The line on some sportsbooks have moved from 3 to 3.5 which convinces me even more of taking this play. The chiefs have been solid at home this season however showed a few signs of weakness in the latter part of the season. Like indy and the points also in this one.:cool:
 

Skanoochies

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Hey Dr. good writeup, good points. One thing that keeps me from betting this game is Vermiel. All those previous games were Schottenheimer as coach. He could`nt hold Dicks jock strap in coaching IMO. I`m surprised San Diego is sticking with him. One more thing that keeps me from betting Indy, if Peyton has an ordinary game, I`ll take P.Holmes over James to control the game.

I`ll watch, good luck.

Skanoochies.:)
 

ET4646

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You make some valid points, but what happened 3 and 4 years ago is not going to matter. I don't know if I can take this team on the road in a hostile environment, Manning audibles on every play and the KC fans will be loud. Ithink it will be very entertaining but the Chiefs take this one. GL
 

Paddyboy_03

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DOC

I like your list of past Stats and acheivements of the Colts over last 10 years, but this is 2004 and a team with a week off and an 8-0 home record and has guy name Holmes running the ball.

The line is telling me something that it wants me to over analyze this game and think the side is INDY. However, KC is the play and it has been getting cheap pt speads all year and has been covering big especialy at home and soon another one comes along everone is second guessing now because what Manning did last wk.
If Indy won a close one this line would be at 10pts.
But since they killed Denver its at -3 don't be fooled.
 
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