Someone posted my notes from another forum last week, and a few people were interested, so I'm posting them here this week, to try and give back a little to a forum that I use a lot. Thanks!
From the radio program Inside the Lines on Fan590. In the Dave Malinsky segment, there are a few points of possible interest.
He says that there are some games today where teams seem to be giving a lot of points for their offensive potential, e.g. Chicago and Baltimore. BUT in games like this, at this time of year, you have to look at the other side, in these cases at Green Bay and Houston, and ask where does the effort come from. If you are playing losing teams as a Road Dog, make sure they are interested!
Favorites this year are about 102-72 or thereabouts (tho if you asked Bob Scucci at the Stardust, he joked that he would likely say it was 188-3). This year the players are getting the money, tho these are small players and not necessarily the "wise" guys.
He said there is not much you can do as an oddsmaker to deal with this. You can't take (say) San Diego to -13 or you'll get hit the other way. And in the last couple of months, the attempted adjustments by the books haven't mattered. And when they wake up the next morning, they find that the Parlay cards and Teasers are losers again.
His own inclination was to take Tennessee today, as a team that is healthy again and very motivated for the rest of the year. For a "weather total" he suggested Buffalo/Miami over 35. These teams are really not going to the playoffs and have some experimentation to do. Buffalo needs to see if Losman can throw the ball down the field, etc. They can and will take some chances. And it's beautiful weather (dammit!).
NOW THE BOB SCUCCI INFO---
Bob is Sportsbook Director at the Stardust in Vegas. It was pointed out that the favs went 12-4 last week and the season continues to go badly for the sportsbook. Last week was a week of bad beats for them, with the Rams comeback and the Chargers being two of the biggest decisions that went against them.
He said that this season ranks with the worst ones, with 1991 and 1996 being very bad, and last year also. But there has been NOTHING like this year. Not only are the favorites covering, but the popular favorites are covering + they are doing so in the high profile games like Sunday nite.
He said that they are not just trying to adjust the odds, but are doing "hard core analysis" (rethinking the whole process, I assume) and trying to adjust to changes in the game. FOR EXAMPLE, he feels they have been giving too much home field advantage to bad teams. Good teams OTR should be laying more than 3-4 points.
Clearly there is opportunity here for bettors to make some money, especially for those that are capping "outside the box". This is not a time for traditional "wiseguy" thinking, just assuming that the trends will somehow correct themselves. We as cappers need to think thru this process also. (My little editorial.)
Personally, I'm playing some teasers (again) this week, with the Bears and Patriots, Bears and Baltimore, and a 10-pointer with the Colts, Pats and Chargers. Also going with the Giants and quite large on the Redskins. They should lay a beating on the Rams, who are a very very bad team and have rookies all over the place, including as Coach and as QB.
Hey, hope this is of some interest to a few, good luck and don't forget to enjoy the day!!!
From the radio program Inside the Lines on Fan590. In the Dave Malinsky segment, there are a few points of possible interest.
He says that there are some games today where teams seem to be giving a lot of points for their offensive potential, e.g. Chicago and Baltimore. BUT in games like this, at this time of year, you have to look at the other side, in these cases at Green Bay and Houston, and ask where does the effort come from. If you are playing losing teams as a Road Dog, make sure they are interested!
Favorites this year are about 102-72 or thereabouts (tho if you asked Bob Scucci at the Stardust, he joked that he would likely say it was 188-3). This year the players are getting the money, tho these are small players and not necessarily the "wise" guys.
He said there is not much you can do as an oddsmaker to deal with this. You can't take (say) San Diego to -13 or you'll get hit the other way. And in the last couple of months, the attempted adjustments by the books haven't mattered. And when they wake up the next morning, they find that the Parlay cards and Teasers are losers again.
His own inclination was to take Tennessee today, as a team that is healthy again and very motivated for the rest of the year. For a "weather total" he suggested Buffalo/Miami over 35. These teams are really not going to the playoffs and have some experimentation to do. Buffalo needs to see if Losman can throw the ball down the field, etc. They can and will take some chances. And it's beautiful weather (dammit!).
NOW THE BOB SCUCCI INFO---
Bob is Sportsbook Director at the Stardust in Vegas. It was pointed out that the favs went 12-4 last week and the season continues to go badly for the sportsbook. Last week was a week of bad beats for them, with the Rams comeback and the Chargers being two of the biggest decisions that went against them.
He said that this season ranks with the worst ones, with 1991 and 1996 being very bad, and last year also. But there has been NOTHING like this year. Not only are the favorites covering, but the popular favorites are covering + they are doing so in the high profile games like Sunday nite.
He said that they are not just trying to adjust the odds, but are doing "hard core analysis" (rethinking the whole process, I assume) and trying to adjust to changes in the game. FOR EXAMPLE, he feels they have been giving too much home field advantage to bad teams. Good teams OTR should be laying more than 3-4 points.
Clearly there is opportunity here for bettors to make some money, especially for those that are capping "outside the box". This is not a time for traditional "wiseguy" thinking, just assuming that the trends will somehow correct themselves. We as cappers need to think thru this process also. (My little editorial.)
Personally, I'm playing some teasers (again) this week, with the Bears and Patriots, Bears and Baltimore, and a 10-pointer with the Colts, Pats and Chargers. Also going with the Giants and quite large on the Redskins. They should lay a beating on the Rams, who are a very very bad team and have rookies all over the place, including as Coach and as QB.
Hey, hope this is of some interest to a few, good luck and don't forget to enjoy the day!!!
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