Der Friends:
I've been getting my brains beat out the last week, dropping over 10 units and now 12 games under .500. In an utter state of desperation, I stayed up all night last night and was tracking results over the past two weeks.
I hope this angle might be a way to get back to the winners circle. If not, then I'm willing to be the front man for polyester and you can all share a few laughs at my expense.
Consider betting on all the favorites in the 1Q and 1H (note: favorite must be -2 or higher). This angle has produced the following results over the past 7 days:
FIRST QUARTER FAVORITES: 20-13-1 ATS (-2 or higher)
FIRST HALF FAVORITES: 18-13-1 (-2 or higher)
COMBINED RESULTS: 38-26-2
Although this is just a theory, I suspect that the home team, when favored, is clearly a superior team. They come out and more often than not outscore the opponent. They may crumble or get lazy in the 2H, but games seem to be flowing according to form in 1H. Meanwhile, the visiting team (usually the dog) needs a few minutes to adjust and therefore are playing at a disadvantage the first part of the game. Interestingly enough, this does not apply to the 2Q as benches get more time on the floor. Lines are also not much of a factor in the 2Q (usually .5 to 1.5), so I did not uncover any trends in that part of the game.
WARNING: These results are still suspect, and I intend to run them back as far as I can in order to see if the angle hits with anywhere near the consistency of last week.
I'm putting this out now because I want to share ideas with my fellow cappers and since the season is coming to an end, it's doubtful that linesmakers will make any adjustments in the next few days if indeed this angle had validity.
MY PLAYS TONIGHT:
1Q:
Washington -1.5 vs. Milwaukee
Orlando -2 vs. Indiana
Miami -2 vs. Atlanta
Detroit -3 vs. Golden State
LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Portland
1H:
Washington -2.5
Orlando -3-
Miami -3.5
Detroit -5
LA Lakers -4
-- Nolan Dalla
I've been getting my brains beat out the last week, dropping over 10 units and now 12 games under .500. In an utter state of desperation, I stayed up all night last night and was tracking results over the past two weeks.
I hope this angle might be a way to get back to the winners circle. If not, then I'm willing to be the front man for polyester and you can all share a few laughs at my expense.
Consider betting on all the favorites in the 1Q and 1H (note: favorite must be -2 or higher). This angle has produced the following results over the past 7 days:
FIRST QUARTER FAVORITES: 20-13-1 ATS (-2 or higher)
FIRST HALF FAVORITES: 18-13-1 (-2 or higher)
COMBINED RESULTS: 38-26-2
Although this is just a theory, I suspect that the home team, when favored, is clearly a superior team. They come out and more often than not outscore the opponent. They may crumble or get lazy in the 2H, but games seem to be flowing according to form in 1H. Meanwhile, the visiting team (usually the dog) needs a few minutes to adjust and therefore are playing at a disadvantage the first part of the game. Interestingly enough, this does not apply to the 2Q as benches get more time on the floor. Lines are also not much of a factor in the 2Q (usually .5 to 1.5), so I did not uncover any trends in that part of the game.
WARNING: These results are still suspect, and I intend to run them back as far as I can in order to see if the angle hits with anywhere near the consistency of last week.
I'm putting this out now because I want to share ideas with my fellow cappers and since the season is coming to an end, it's doubtful that linesmakers will make any adjustments in the next few days if indeed this angle had validity.
MY PLAYS TONIGHT:
1Q:
Washington -1.5 vs. Milwaukee
Orlando -2 vs. Indiana
Miami -2 vs. Atlanta
Detroit -3 vs. Golden State
LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Portland
1H:
Washington -2.5
Orlando -3-
Miami -3.5
Detroit -5
LA Lakers -4
-- Nolan Dalla
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