INTERESTING 74% STAT/TREND

[THE HITMAN]

I have been using a little something for a bit, so I am going to throw it out there.
Beware of teams that are 0-4 in their 5th game of the season.
Since 1999, teams that have started out 0-4 are 20-7 against the spread in game 5, which tallies to 74 %.
Candidates this week are St. Louis and Miami.
Geez, seems tough to take St.Louis against an improved Az team & defense.
Looks easier to take Miami.
But, we'll see.

 

[Senor Capper]

I have one that I use also

I have one that I use also

Since 1920 Fade any team that's 0-4 going into the fifth week....

BECAUSE THEY SUCK !!!!!
:142smilie :mj07: :142smilie

 

[THE HITMAN]

Since 1920 Fade any team that's 0-4 going into the fifth week....

BECAUSE THEY SUCK !!!!!
:142smilie :mj07: :142smilie

Well, Senor, you may be up a bunch of $$ since 1920, but you'd be down buckets since 1999.

 

[jer-z jock]

I have been using a little something for a bit, so I am going to throw it out there.
Beware of teams that are 0-4 in their 5th game of the season.
Since 1999, teams that have started out 0-4 are 20-7 against the spread in game 5, which tallies to 74 %.
Candidates this week are St. Louis and Miami.
Geez, seems tough to take St.Louis against an improved Az team & defense.
Looks easier to take Miami.
But, we'll see.

You wanna go one step farther and check HOME DOGGIES with NO WINS GOING INTO WEEKS 3-6. If you can please post results...there may not be any, but I THINK:SIB there's a good % of winners.

 

[USCMD]

I think I'm on Senors side here.

IMHO.... SL has scored 39 and allowed 103. And now Bulgers out, Ferrotte in. Mia is a bit better.... scoring 78 allowing 119. The days of Mia relying on their Def to stay close are gone. Zach Thomas got concussed and the rest seem slower and less intimidating. (think of Bal, in the drop off.)

To get to 0-4, you need to be messed up and not just physically. Poor coaching, poor talent, bad schemes, bad attitude etc.

If i were betting the games I'd definately take Arz over SL. And Hou over Mia.

GL guys

 

[smurphy]

Well, Senor, you may be up a bunch of $$ since 1920, but you'd be down buckets since 1999.

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

As a Cards fan, my advice would be to take the Rams this week.:SIB

 

[Senor Capper]

Just funn'in around up there.

If you twisted my arm I would scream Miami.

 

[THE HITMAN]

You wanna go one step farther and check HOME DOGGIES with NO WINS GOING INTO WEEKS 3-6. If you can please post results...there may not be any, but I THINK:SIB there's a good % of winners.

Jock, I don't have those figures, but the trend does hold true for longer than game 5 as I remember this from a couple of years ago. But perhaps not with quite as high as 74%. I am pretty sure there is a positive stat number for (through) game 16, I just don't know what it is.

Guys, I'm sure each one of those past 27 teams looked lousy, also. I'm not advocating anyone play any one of these, it's your personal capping choice, as is every game. Actually, I am leaning Ariz., myself. But, if you had played those 27 , since 1999, you'd be up some 12-13 units.
All I'm doing is throwing a past strong stat out there for ya to peruse......a number/trend that can't be changed or argued with.
GL

 

[jer-z jock]

Jock, I don't have those figures, but the trend does hold true for longer than game 5 as I remember this from a couple of years ago. But perhaps not with quite as high as 74%. I am pretty sure there is a positive stat number for (through) game 16, I just don't know what it is.

Guys, I'm sure each one of those past 27 teams looked lousy, also. I'm not advocating anyone play any one of these, it's your personal capping choice, as is every game. Actually, I am leaning Ariz., myself. But, if you had played those 27 , since 1999, you'd be up some 12-13 units.
All I'm doing is throwing a past strong stat out there for ya to peruse......a number/trend that can't be changed or argued with.
GL

Agreed and I do play the home DOGGIE with no wins.....thanks for postimg I just dont have stats piled up to run any of the scenarios but I am positive that you are correct in your post. Thanks and BOL this weekend

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

If I'm not mistaken, isn't SD 0-4 also? Lost to NE, GBay, KC and I know there's one more...I can't think of it right now.

 

[Eternal]

If I'm not mistaken, isn't SD 0-4 also? Lost to NE, GBay, KC and I know there's one more...I can't think of it right now.

SD beat Chicago 14-3 week 1 @ -6, so they are 1-3 ATS.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Just to clarify, Right Side & Eternal.................0-4 record straight up, ATS wager game 5.
New Orleans a possible fit next week if they lose SU this week.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Trend/angle went 2-0, now 22-7, or 75.9 %.
Yes, they all look lousy, it just takes some balls. It has worked good for me for the last 3-4 years.
I had Miami, but not St Louis.
Next up is NEW ORLEANS, 0-4, on Sunday night, currently getting 6.5 at Seattle.
That's it for this season, I wish I had the stats to carry the progression out more, but I don't.
But I do know that the 0-4's, as a whole, have been a good play further into the season.

 

[el JB]

let me put it this way ....

let me put it this way ....

WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WILL LAY A PENNY IN A 0-4 TEAM THAT WON'T BE GIVEN A ZILLION POINTS ATS ? AND STILL SOME OF THEM ( 1/3 )WON'T COVER ? i'll take my chances in the OVER / UNDER flip of coins:142smilie

 

[jmizeus]

el jb

nothing is free. and the public will always bite against bad teams in situations like these.his percentages are solid on this,and im sure this is not the only scenario on this either

 

[Destructor D]

I love the angle and I like the pick on New Orleans, but not a lot. The Aints are really sorry this season and Brees has been horrid.

 

[Mister Covers]

San Diego is 2-3 SU and ATS.

If I'm not mistaken, isn't SD 0-4 also? Lost to NE, GBay, KC and I know there's one more...I can't think of it right now.

 

[THE HITMAN]

WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WILL LAY A PENNY IN A 0-4 TEAM THAT WON'T BE GIVEN A ZILLION POINTS ATS ? AND STILL SOME OF THEM ( 1/3 )WON'T COVER ? i'll take my chances in the OVER / UNDER flip of coins:142smilie

The simple answer,to your question, I guess, is the backers of the 22 winners.
And, the less that play them just adds points to the (usually) + line.
Your reply doesn't make a lot of sense. Your math of 1/3rd not covering should be roughly 1/4th (7 of 29). Even using your flawed math of 1/3 losers translates to a 67 % winning percentage.
My guess is most of us dream of a season like that.
That being said, I don't know how you can beat 22-7 by flipping a coin without being extremely lucky. Assuming a 50/50 split on flips, you can never win...............you just lose vig. The more bets you make, the more vig you lose.
I guess you must have backed the two losers this week, eh JB ?

 

[Jags Jets]

Thank you for posting HIT

I liked the information and plan on trying all three Saints, Dolphins and Rams and see if I can't come out 2-1.

Thanks again
Jags Jets

 

[THE HITMAN]

OK Jags, GL with it. Remember, the main trend was for the Dolphins & St Louis last week, NO this week. Nice if you had them both last week. I only had one, I just couldn't pull the trigger on the Rams.