Interesting line moves - Week 4 starting early!

[Skipper]

Wanted to get these early movements out - have waited until Saturday to post these, but since the system is doing well at 17-7(71%), I wanted to post the leans early.

These will probably be plays - official plays will be posted early Saturday morning (pr Friday if Temple game still looks like a play) because want to watch line movement throughout the week.

Friday
Temple @ Akron
Temple opened at -4-, now -4
95% on Temple, so take AKRON

Saturday
BC @ UVA
BC opened at -5-, now -4
95% on BC, so take UVA

Indiana @ Penn St.
Indiana opened at +22, now +25-
85% on Indiana, so take PENN ST.

Vols @ Ole Piss
Vols opened at +3-, now +4-
90% on Vols, so take OLE PISS - really hating this one!

Arizona @ Cal
Zona opened at -2-, now pk
90% on Zona, so take CAL

Canes @ Heels
Canes opened at -4, now -3
85% on Canes, so take THE HEELS - LOVE THIS PLAY!

N. TX @ FL INTL.
FL INTL. opened at -2-, now -2
95% on FL INTL., so take N. TX

Maybes and ones to watch
Northwestern @ Illinois
NW opened at +3-, now +5
70% on NW, so play ILLINI - I am going to play this game regardless. I love the spot for both teams, and would really like more action on NW.

Suckacuse @ The Ville
Suckacuse opened at +6, now +8
65% on Suckacuse for some reaon?, so take THE VILLE

Texas @ Baylor
Horns opened at -25-, now -23-
75% on Horns, so take BAYLOR

Mizzou @ Kansas St.
K. St. opened at -2-, now -1 or pick
70% on K. St., so take MIZZOU

Tulane @ Rice
Tulane opened at +1=, now +3
65% on Tulane, so take RICE

Utah @ TCU
Utah opened at +17-, now +19-
70% on Utah, so take TCU - little surprised at this one?

Arky St. @ FL ATL
FL ATL opened at +3, now +4
75% on FL ATL, so take Arky St.

:0corn

 

[bleedingpurple]

Good stuff. I am no SEC expert by anymeans but I think this is a good spot for Miss but I have lost a lot of $$$ on them this year. Over rated bastards.

 

[Skipper]

It is tough going against the Vols right now, the way they are playing, but OM is much better at home for sure. The Vols have played well on the road this year, but are still winless on the road with losses at #1 FLA by 10, and at #2 Bama by 2.

In all three of Ole Miss losses - Sneed has been held to under 200 yds passing. If he throws for over 200, I think that means they get the running game going as well.

 

[PJ12]

I put Zona in early at a Pick, really think Im buyin that one back. Thanks for keepin track :toast:

 

[Skipper]

I like this spot for Cal - they threw for 350 yards against Arizona St. a cpl. weeks ago and feel they can throw on Zona as well. That game last week might have been alot different if Best didn't suffer that awful injury. Thank goodness he is OK, and I think they rally for him this week.

Zona has lost 2 of last 3 on the road with their only win at Oregon St., who at the time, was not playing as well as they are now.

 

[joefrog91]

North Texas is getting some people back this week that were injured. May explain the line.

 

[spang]

Temple aint much but I wonder if the Zips might be a little flat after taking down their arch rival.

I can't play it. I can't even watch it. I'll be on campus for the soccer game ( we're #1 in the country) but am not staying for the FB game. I'd rather watch good soccer than bad FB.

 

[LDB]

gl buddy:toast:

 

[Skipper]

Temple aint much but I wonder if the Zips might be a little flat after taking down their arch rival.

I can't play it. I can't even watch it. I'll be on campus for the soccer game ( we're #1 in the country) but am not staying for the FB game. I'd rather watch good soccer than bad FB.

I gotta tell you my friend - it is hard as hell for me to take any MAC game. That conference is just a cluster when it comes to betting. GL to you Spang

:00hour

 

[hawkeye]

Skip some of those line moves are not much-I usually don't care until they get to 2 or more.. You left out the Iowa/Oh St game

 

[#cruncher]

Wouldn't surprise me if some late money came in on the Vols Skip...hope not tho.

 

[Bennymac17]

Man I really dont get that Penn St. game. I guess all it takes is just one of these traps to lure a sucker in. 25 seems like a ton of points, and my book actually has it at 26. I guess we shall see...

 

[jeff85eagles]

skipper

skipper

does gt and duke apply here!!!:0corn

 

[Skipper]

Skip some of those line moves are not much-I usually don't care until they get to 2 or more.. You left out the Iowa/Oh St game

It is still early, so not necessarily gonna hit all these, but to your point about the lines not moving much - if there is 95% on one side and it has not moved at all or just a half point, I still consider that a play. The reason is if that much action is on one side, the line should move up right? For me to play one side where the line doesn't move, or it is a half point, I want to see at least 85% on the other side.

As to the Iowa game, it has moved 3 points, which is alot, however, I am only seeing about 55% on Iowa, so I want to wait and see where this goes in the next couple of days. I hope that more action goes to Iowa, because I actually like Ohio State in this spot.

 

[hawkeye]

Makes sense buddy-thanks--GL

 

[Skipper]

does gt and duke apply here!!!:0corn

No because even though GT is getting 85-90% of the action, the line is moving up. If the line dropped towards Duke, then Duke would be the play. In this case - Vegas is trying to get more Duke action, so a no play for me.

 

[Jord20]

I love this angle. I use it all the time, although not to the extent you do. Namely, I don't just play it blind. Thanks for laying them out for us. Where do you use your consensus info from??

Virginia, ILL, Cal, and Baylor all look tasty to me. Still looking into the rest.

What about CFla??

 

[Skipper]

I love this angle. I use it all the time, although not to the extent you do. Namely, I don't just play it blind. Thanks for laying them out for us. Where do you use your consensus info from??

Virginia, ILL, Cal, and Baylor all look tasty to me. Still looking into the rest.

What about CFla??

Very well my friend!

Houston @ UCF
Houston opened -5, now -4-
90% on Houston, so take UCF

This looks like a guaranteed play, but check back Sat. morning!

 

[DAWGPRINT]

This theory works VERY well in the pros.

I would like to point out tonite's game, S Fla, #24 in country, -1 to +3, yet 58% of public on S Fla

I contend in this situation, that when you have a RANKED team, GETTING points, you take the FAV

Some call it a reverse line movement, some call it "sharp" money, I just see a ranked team not favored....

BOL if you're on this game

 

[Skipper]

I will wait a little longer on pulling the trigger on Rutgers, but looks like we are headed that way.

BTW - I hit Ole Miss already because I think the line will go higher because of the Vols "issues" with the law:142smilie