Interesting Line of the Week

[Smitty]

anyone else think it's odd that Oregon St is -2.5 over Washington? Did Penix break his arm?

the game doesn't necessarily mean a lot to the Huskies. even if they lose, they just need to beat Washington St next week to reach the PAC 12 Championship game. But a win here locks them in. ok, ok, forgot the big picture for a second... a loss would knock them out of BCS contention. so this line makes no sense whatsoever. unless the big money is trying to drive it to 3, so they can hammer Washington +3. doesn't seem all that likely. if this line goes up to 3 and stays there.... put all your houses on Oregon St.

can't believe i'm going to be relying on Uiagalelei. this is gonna be painful.

ok, found something that makes me feel a little better about it. Washington gives up 4.37 yards/rush, which is 83rd in the country. huge day for Martinez.

 

[LordofBalls]

Hi Smitty,
not sure how many of the West Coast games you've had a chance to watch this year, but there are some historically strong Conference home-field advantages:
Oregon St is one... Wash St is one... Oregon is one...Utah is one...
All those 4 are very strong.

Wash is vs certain teams..Stanford used to be.

smaller schools within their conf games in particular
Utah St is one... Boise is one... Wyoming is one...

and these, not so much at all:
Usc
UCLA
San Diego St

that said, I haven't looked at any injury stuff (or lines even), but IF Wash doesn't really need it, and still would have a slot in the CFB Playoffs if they win the conference, then I could understand the line as it's always big rivalries between Wash and Oregon schools @ the end of the season, sometimes nasty weather, etc

always enjoy your writeups.. esp around Bowl time! looking forward to it!

LoB

ps... basketball is similar but slightly different, we'll talk about that as we approach conference gms around New Years!
GL to US!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

That is an odd line Smitty, we have to remember the advance line had UW as a 2 1/2 pt fav, swung down to Beavers then back to UW -2, money is going both ways strongly for sure, also Beavers "D" has a +18 turnover margin and are undefeated at home this year. UW had a tough time vs Arizona State and Utah was a true test when it comes to facing a tough "D", Beavers "D" isn't pretty either, but this will be a game I'm gonna watch the line until kick off. GL!!

TIME	SPREAD	TOTAL	WASH ML	ORSTU ML
11/15 9:21AM	ORSTU -2.5-115	o63.5-110	+114	-137
11/14 10:38AM	ORSTU -2.5-110	o63.5-110	+108	-130
11/14 10:29AM	ORSTU -2.5-106	o63.5-110	+105	-126
11/14 10:21AM	ORSTU -2.5-110	o63.5-110	+108	-130
11/14 7:24AM	ORSTU -2.5-105	o63.5-110	+108	-130
11/14 7:20AM	ORSTU -2.5-105	o63.5-110	+112	-134
11/14 7:18AM	ORSTU -2.5-110	o63.5-110	+112	-134
11/13 11:20PM	ORSTU -1.5-115	o63.5-110	+108	-130
11/13 8:50PM	ORSTU -1.5-115	o63.5-110	+105	-126
11/13 8:50PM	ORSTU -1.5-112	o63.5-110	+105	-126
11/13 8:12PM	ORSTU -1.5-112	o63.5-110	+102	-122
11/13 6:14PM	ORSTU -1.5-108	o63.5-110	-100	-120
11/13 6:28AM	ORSTU -1.5-105	o63.5-110	-104	-115
11/13 3:20AM	ORSTU -1-110	o63.5-110	-102	-118
11/13 1:40AM	WASH -1.5-105	o63.5-110	-115	-104
11/12 5:46PM	WASH -1.5-100	o63.5-110	-110	-110
11/12 1:17PM	WASH -1.5-110	o63.5-110	-122	+102
11/12 1:13PM	WASH -1.5-110	o65.5-110	-122	+102
11/12 1:11PM	WASH -2.5-105	o65.5-110	-122	+102
11/12 10:59AM	WASH -2.5-105	o63.5-110	-125	+104
11/12 10:53AM	WASH -2.5-105	o61.5-110	-122	+102
11/12 10:52AM	WASH -2.5-115	o61.5-110	-138	+115

 

[Smitty]

LoB, always appreciate the info, thank you.(side note, wtf happened to SD St this year?) I still think the line is nuts. OSU was favored at home this year against both Utah and UCLA by 3.5. Are either of those teams really only a 1-pt dog to Washington on a neutral field? And whether or not the Huskies need the game is debatable. Realistically, they're not making the CFP, even if they win out. But a loss and they're definitely out. Hard to say if they play like they know they're not going to make the playoff.

just saw WB's post. yeah, that line movement is telling. I already bet OSU at -2.5. Apparently not quite enough to move the line to 3. But, as I said, if it goes to 3 and stays there, that will be a clear sign that OSU is very live, to say the least.

definitely something to keep an eye on for the next 72+ hours.

 

[Ndraider]

Ore st would be the play for me. This Wash
Defense gets more exposed by the week.
Ya they can score but drives consisting of
Alot of running keeps the offense off the
Field. DJ will cause them fits with the run
Pass option.

 

[johnnyb.]

Oregon state has a much better defense and a better offense vs. Washington defense so makes sense