Interesting Prop. . . please read!

[Nickelback]

Need some good information on this one as I don't understand the line on this one from Carib:

Team to receive the opening kickoff:

Raiders -140
Bucs +110


What is the tendancy of both teams? Do the Raiders like to start with the ball no matter what and the Bucs have chosen to kickoff? I just think its funny how the line is favored toward the Raiders if both teams would want the ball to start (or defer to the 2nd half for that matter).

Any information would be greatly appreciated!

 

[Iminforabuck]

Nickel....


I can help you this much. The Bucs won the toss last week against Phila and deferred. They have done that more than once this year. But, Gruden got burned on it when Mitchell had that big runback to begin the game.

 

[Karac]

Well...

Well...

I think the general consensus is that if Tampa wins the toss, they may defer, and have their defense start. If Oakland wins it, they certainly will recieve. Therefore, theoretically, it doesn't matter who wins the toss, Oakland will start on offense.

I do not necessarily agree, but i think that explains the skew in the line.


Best of luck.dance2

 

[Nickelback]

Karac,

What do you mean by not necessarily agreeing? Do you think Tampa will want the ball to start? Not sure why I'm so interested in this one. . . for the bowl games, I was able to nail Iowa scoring first over USC because I knew Iowa would get the ball first and figured it was a solid play. I'm just wondering how often Gruden defers. . . especially if it occurs in big game situations such as last week. Sure he got burned on that opening run, but his team has a lot of poise and handled it well. Why would he expect it to be different tonight?

 

[Karac]

Sorry

Sorry

Didn't mean to confuse. I just think there have to be better props out there than this. I can't justify laying 140, that a team is not going to want the ball first. Even if both teams would elect to recieve, as most would, especially in the biggest game of the year, then you are laying 140 on a 50-50 event, the coin toss.

When i say that i do not necessarily agree, i guess i meant with the logic of laying the 140, not what Gruden would do.

For the record, i took over 3.5 field goals at +125, @ Oly.

Assuming Bucs D tightens up in the red zone and Tampa's offense is not as good in the red zone, combined with two great kickers, figured that was worth a flier. I haven't settled on a side or total though, although i am leaning with Oakland -3 (I'd buy the half if necessary).


Best of luck.


:drinky:

 

[Nickelback]

Karac,

Well that is why I think this line is funny as its simply a matter of a coin toss for most teams and most matchups. Obviously I wouldn't even consider this if it was merely a 50/50 chance, but if Gruden will most likely defer and Oakland will definitely take the ball first, laying 140 looks pretty good IMO.

I'm not looking to pound this obvioulsy. . . I have my money on TB. Just looking for good information if any is available.

 

[Iminforabuck]

Nickel,

Actually....I'm with you on your way of thinking about the value on this prop. A lot of coaches want to put their best unit on the field first. I havent seen every Buc game this year....but I know Chuckey has done this frequently.

So, my opinion is that Oakland gets it first....but with this game......never can tell

 

[Karac]

Best of luck either way

Best of luck either way

If this line was installed at -110 on both sides, than all would be on Oakland, because the prevailing opinion would be that there is no way Oak would defer, but there is a chance that Tampa would. Books don't want all action on one side, so they jack the price up on oak, in the hopes that some will now take Tampa.

Either way, it is still a coin toss that decides it. I cannot lay 140 on a 50-50 prop, because i do not beleive that Gruden would defer anyway. I guess that is the deciding factor, if you truly believe that Gruden would defer, then it doesn't matter how much chalk you lay, you win.

Now that this has all been said, Oakland will win the toss and defer. lol.

Let me know if ya play it, i'll be rooting for ya.


Peace.

 

[Karac]

There it is

There it is

They won and chose to recieve, hope you didn't play it.


Go Raiders!!!



:toast: