Interesting System 33 & 57 since 90

[djv]

Another old fart like me sent me this info. I dont have time to run a check. Since 1990 dogs of the 6 a major conference are only 33 & 57 ATS in bowl games played in January. The Big 10, Big 12, ACC, Big East, Pac 10, SEC. Seems there made dogs for a reason in these games. The Favorets must have been strong. Games that are pickem are no play. As I under stand if they stat as a pickem and move to one team being a 1 point favoret they still remain No play. If this stands up sure is a nice 63% play. But as Nolan always states things can change fast. But were talking over 10 year history. That is a god test of time.

On the other hand I was told these same conferences as dogs in December games are 28 & 12. Sounds good. The Last 5 Years have been that way. Good dogs plays in Dec. Will this keep up not sure. But here is the Word of Caution. Again as Nolan states. If you can check back more then 5 years do so. This play over last 10 years still tells you to play it this way BUT BUT.
That 28 & 12 drops way down to 54% over last 10 years. So were back to why have so many dogs been coming in last 5 years. Could be it will stay that way. But be a little careful.

My Bud said this info came from a ATS write up. ???

 

[djv]

Took some time and it did take some time. The first idea does check out. But not at 33 & 57. I came up with 36 & 55. Still not bad.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

That is quite interesting djv and stands to reason. Believe it merits further observation.If you find anything contrary to his #'s please lets us know if you would.
Thanks for post bud.

 

[djv]

Well at this point all dogs are 9 & 5.
However idea number two or item number two above. We find a 7 & 1 ats record so far. Maybe we really do have something here.
And a trend of majior conference covering vs a lesser one we have 3 & 0. UCLA over N Mex, B Coll over Toledo, Ok ST over SM.
Interesting. Well 6 games today per this all dogs once again should be played. You do have to wonder about Fresno St as a dog with the players that have been suspendend.
Then tomorrow seems we are to go on all Fav's. Boy thats hard to do on a couple of those games. But hey the 36 & 55 is hard to look past.
GL to All

 

[djv]

Very good results so far with just three games left. I stll like Iowa even if this sysytem does not. But hey the dogs barked as they should have and now the favs are doing well.

 

[Unicorn]

Really starting to doubt the PAC 10. WSU's D looked good considering they had to play all day but OU made one of the PAC 10's best look very mediocre. Really, the same way that Ohio State made them look during the regular season. It's hard not to back the Big 10 dogs. All covered, ML even and the only loser has been Penn St. in a dog fight. I think Iowa has a similar chip on its' shoulder as OU had in the Rose Bowl. I think you've got something with your Iowa pick...good luck

:toast:

 

[djv]

Well these two trends/systems what ever have been outstanding.
10 & 3 with the dogs.
5 & 1 with Fav's with two games left. Can not be aloser even if both remaing games are wrong. But a split with last two games would not surprise me. Iowa as dog Miami as fav. We shall see.

 

[Grama]

killer system, but tonight you have pac 10 & big 10, both major conferences according to the system. so this would be a no play right?? just wondering

 

[djv]

Grama no. In December bowl games you play the Dogs. In the January bowl games you play the Favs. They must be from one of the 6 majior conference. And both games left are that. So you should go with both Favs. But Im going with Iowa. I may wish I didn't but I have other reasons to play Iowa.

 

[djv]

So the sytem play is USC. But no I new better I played Iowa.

 

[Scarecrow]

djv.....

I have a great deal of respect for your insight and handicapping skills. I was somewhat surprised when you strayed from your posted bowl selection system on CSU and again on Iowa last night....both unfortunately lost. I realize it is not "your" system but I know from following your posts that when you write about a trend or angle that it is solid.

I stayed the course on December dogs and January favorites except I bought into the hype on Wash St and got a loss for my efforts. So tonight going to finish the college season with Maimi and the over from Fletcher.

Good luck to you as always!!!

sc

 

[djv]

Well this worked well if followed to the letter.
10 & 3 with the dogs.
6 & 1 with the Favs.
Will try to remember with some you folks help to bring this back up next year.

 

[djv]

I know it's early folks. But we do not want to forget this one.

 

[The Big Tease]

BUMP this MO FO too!

 

[Cie]

I posted this yesterday on one of these threads.

A reliable friend of mine claims 65% system over the past 6 years. He takes all bowl dogs through December and all favs in january. Have not had time to check the numbers, but will try later this week.

GL:weed:

 

[BUBBA12]

PLAY ALL BOWL DOGS ON ML THROUGH DEC.

 

[BIF]

I don't think the system applies to just the Big 6 conferences - basically the theory goes, play the dogs early and then the favs in the big bowls (excusing Miami last year). My only rationale for this is that the small schools (dogs) are happy to just be in a bowl while the bigger schools (favorites) are disappointed that they are only going to a small bowl. Of course there are always exceptions, but as a general rule I always think about who is happy to be in a specific bowl game and who is not before I cunch any numbers/stats - this time of year it is all about the team's state of mind and emotion for the past 3 weeks leading up to the bowl game.

 

[Morris]

I wonder if everything still applies with the bowl games being extended into the weekend and prime time TV? Still Jan. games, just wondering.


Bob