Interesting West coast unders...

[infinii]

I looked back at every late start (west coast) game in NBA this week and found that EVERY game went under the total.

I also tried to see if there was any type of public consensus on these games and according to bestbettor, it public was usually on the Over. Does anyone have a site where I can get consensus plays? (bestbettor is nice but the sample size is too small for it to accurately reflect the public).

Sun
Dallas/LAL 103-105 213 UNDER

Mon
Hou/LAC 86-93 191 UNDER
Wash/GS 99-96 201.5 UNDER

Tue
GS/Sea 93-110 207 UNDER
Hou/Sac 87-110 202 UNDER

Wed
Wash/Den 107-75 189 UNDER

Thu
Den/Sac ??
LAC/GS ??

 

[Valuist]

I'm with you on the Denver/Sacra under. I think the current number is too high by 10 pts. The GS # looks a bit high also, but remember it is Golden State. I'm surprised it took Vegas so long to start posting 215 and 218 for Dallas. Knowing how the public loves overs, they probably could still get a lot of over money even at 220 as long as the Mavs were playing.

 

[Biggy]

Hey stranger!!! keep digging, and bring back some winnas!!! Hee hee... I will be looking for a good side for tonight!!! and lets bust a big parlay!!!

C ya later,

 

[infinii]

valuist

valuist

I was actually hoping you would pop in seeing as I value your insight on totals.

I'm hesitant about the Denver under because they played last night. What's your thought on totals for teams playing b2b? I always thought that fatigue affects defense which results in more overs for b2bs.

Maybe Kings blow them out and we get some low scoring garbage time at the end for a nice 109-88 under

I think I'll keep track of this for another week and if any trends lean to under, I'll pound it. My original thoughts were to follow the trend and play both unders tonight but you're right about GS.

 

[Valuist]

My take on fatigue is that whatever a teams strength is, it probably will be hurt. For Dallas its offense, for Miami its defense. Speaking of Miami, I went back several years on them and checked out their record in 2nd of 2 back to backs. I can't remember exact w/l, but the % is 55% covers since Riley joined them. And I'm sure a lot of that 55% was against teams who had at least 1 day rest. I'd love to see their #s against an opponent who is also playing on no rest. Obviously, its a mental toughness thing to Riley, who won't use fatigue as an excuse.

 

[dnuggets]

Numbers numbers numbers, they mean little from game to game and they mean less when its only one week, you need years of numbers for them to mean anything....

 

[gsp]

They've been changing about every 15 days this year. Will go over for a while then under or fifty-fifty and then under. About time to reverse. Good luck