interesting--

[DOGS THAT BARK]

might seem odd discussing mortage co's at this point been been watching one that deals with prime loans in CA for most part TMA--won't touch now but has paid 10% ave div for 5 years --but the thing I find interesting is insider buying the past few days--can anyone explain this???

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TMA

 

[lawmaker1]

That is very weird. However that is a pretty solid stock. I might be purchasing some next week. Your thoughts?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I am going to try new approach on stocks like this one that look solid but frenzy selling is in place--also not sure anyone knows yet who is holding the bad paper.

Here iare my thoughts--and would like anyones comments if they think its a bad approach.

Believe this stock is selling on panic but extremely tough to gauge bottom. The key is you can do stops as it is on NY exchange.

Would like to have about 500 shares--

I see stock is down 81 cents in after market trading--unless there is unknown not visable (them holding bad paper public is not aware of) I am hoping it will eventially move back to prior levels at some point in time --as before panic it was not very volitle stock with beta under 1.--however don't want to get caught in freefall.

Will try to cut my risk by buying stock in intrevals of 100 shares max per day instead of 500 at one time and put stop loss on each 100 share lot of $1/per share less than I paid. Will probably begin Monday.

 

[selkirk]

DTB that is probably a good way to go about building a position.

there have been many financials that have been taken down.... SLF reported great numbers and has .5% exposure to sub prime. the stock is flat which is a minor miracle considering the trading the last two weeks.

MFC also has been sitting around 40cdn. for the longest time, they also came up with great numbers....but does not move....maybe they will have to report another good 3 months of numbers, the number of skeptics on MFC is growing, like SLF in the past.

Cdn. banks have been hit though not as hard as US banks for the most part. stocks like BNS have limited US operations.

CIBC was at one time 102 then an article about sub prime troubles, the claim was 2.4 billion or so... the bank believes 100 million.... time will tell but the banks make great earnings. does one quarter get wiped out.

it is now below 90cdn. could throw in RBC, TD, also.

if the market recovers TMA probably outperforms these plays, however less downside if the sell off continues.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Kirk-

I see where after hour declines have now been erased in pre opening trading--will prob step in for 100 shares--can't decide if to put in before market or wait till it opens--which brings me to question I been meaning to ask you--

Do you have any preference when your buying a stock on what time of day to buy it--pre market-after open or just prior to close?

I've been trying to figure it out and just when I think I got a trend it revereses

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Did step in and lost $118 before stop loss licked in--will probably step in again today with same plan--believe upside possibilties outweigh the small risk--of course there is possibilty of large drop after hours on this one--and stop might not limit risk totally--however @ 100 shares a day--won't be too exposed--
+++++++++++++++++++
before the bell has stock down almost $2 more

Mostly due to morning news I assume--but some of this was out yesterday--

AP
Ahead of the Bell: Thornburg Mortgage
Tuesday August 14, 7:28 am ET
Four Analysts Downgrade Thornburg Mortgage on Liquidity Squeeze


NEW YORK (AP) -- Four analysts downgraded Thornburg Mortgage Inc. on Tuesday, saying the mortgage lender will probably have to sell off some of its loans to stay afloat.
Analysts from RBC Capital Markets, Credit Suisse, Friedman Billings Ramsey and Jefferies & Co. downgraded shares of the Santa Fe, N.M.-based real estate investment trust Tuesday morning.

ADVERTISEMENT


The theme was one familiar to mortgage lenders: Its financial backers are probably asking for their money back, these analysts said. The investment banks that finance mortgage lending typically are entitled to demand repayment when the mortgage loans acting as collateral for the credit lines lose too much value.

This is what has happened in the mortgage industry this year, leading to dozens of bankruptcies. The flare-ups started in "subprime" mortgages, or loans to people with checkered credit histories. Decaying credit quality made subprime loans less valuable, triggering margin calls.

The flight from risky mortgage debt has now spread to loans carrying little actual credit risk. With a $56.4 billion portfolio, Thornburg is the largest mortgage-related security REIT and owns primarily prime loans. But the absence of liquidity for home loans means their market prices have tumbled this year.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George expects the company to sell a fifth of its assets to satisfy lenders. The credit markets where Thornburg Mortgage previously raised money are in turmoil, and George said they could take months to recover.

"The company has no opportunity to raise permanent capital to stem the tide," Jefferies analyst Richard Shane Jr. wrote in a client note. He also slashed his share price target for Thornburg Mortgage to $13 from $25.

Thornburg's stock closed Monday at $14.28, down 43.2 percent for the year.

"While we maintain our 'Market Perform' rating, we remain very cautious on the outlook for the company," Shane wrote.

 

[lawmaker1]

holy shi*...wtf happened today. I know that it got downgraded by everybody, but to lose 46% of your value in one day? It closed at $7.61.

One dude is on the hook for 350000 shares in the mid twenties.

OUCH!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

This is most facinating to me--1st wonder what is going through minds of owners who increased their stake last week? Did they think that their company was solid and come out the winner in this debacle--if so goes to show one any company that is leveraged is at the mercy of their creditors.

The company had huge buyback after hours lawmakers--

"Shares shot up 25.9% to recoup some of today's hefty regular-session losses after president Larry Goldstone said on CNBC that the Santa Fe, N.M., mortgage-investment firm has "no intention" of filing for bankruptcy and has "been able to meet all of [its] obligations." Shares gained $1.97 to $9.58 in recent after-hours trading.

--I didn't get any of it as was playing golf @ close--and not sure I'd had nads to step in but for 100 shares probably would have considered--however suspending dividend was nota good sign--and would have figured it carried more weight than promise not to file bankruptcy.

Will be curious if it continues to go up at open--however am leary of fact that stops have little effect with these large after hour moves in both directions.

 

[lawmaker1]

Closed a little under 11 today. I have this stock on the radar.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Dogs,

Just saw the post this morning and sorry I didn't post sooner. Insider buying is usually a good indicator of a promising short-term, but anytime you get into industries where you have to have blurred ethical boundaries to be successful ( . . . not to be political ) like Oil/Gas, Derivatives/Instruments trading, Insurance and to some extent Technology Companies you're at the mercy of the insider manipulation.

That's a huge position that the CEO has taken over the last month, but the CEO's the sole stockholder of the "Manager" of the Company's portfolio and the Company paid the Manager $24 MM in base management fees and $34 MM in performance based comp and $11 MM in expense reimbursement, so it's not "that" huge.

Also, they wouldn't be the first company to issue a "bonus" through board approval and give everyone who received the bonus marching orders to purchase the stock in order to keep the stock price up through volume and influencing perception.

Hopefully, it turns around.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Time will tell Bobby--its low the 14th was 7.49 and high the 15th was 12.18 --someone made some serious cheese--wasn't me however--have $118 invested so far-- just think possible opportunity that this mort co has good chance of survival--voilitility after hours make me a bit chicken to step in now.
But interesting scenerio to watch.

 

[lawmaker1]

TMA finished strong on friday..wow

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Was up after hours also--

Bobby
Sorry I meant to thank you for your input-appreciate any heads up--Was a little over my head but I got general idea

Sure wish I would have studied concepts of market when younger--hard to adapt when you get older--I know there are much better ways to do things than my mode--such as Kirks puts-calls-options ect--but they make me nervous and I lack the knowledge he has on those concepts.

I am a very basic investor. Just try to look for value off the beaten path for most part.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

interesting update--looks like they are back to paying div-- would have never thought that?

$204 on 300 shares--


09/17/07 Cash ORD DIV 300 THORNBURG MORTG 300 TMA 204.00

 

[kneifl]

I agree. That is pretty interesting. It looks like a pretty solid stock too. Too bad for me, it's in one of the sectors I really hate right now. I won't put a penny in the housing sector until we get out of the current rut were in.

kneifl

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

TMA revisited--lesson in studity

Thought I'd bring this back up for lesson on what not to do.

Had actually made small gains on this stock--and then let emotion get in the way.

Had stops set for 15% loss--made some gains then adjusted stops according.

In checking pre market movement noticed that TMA would prob sell at bell and but also realized this stock often recovered in pm--so instead of sticking to game plan and taking small loss--I remove stop and plan to sell in pm. Wrong--stock continues to fall and next day same thing--
bottom line-- if had stuck to plan would have got out with bout 5% loss--as is was bout 60% loss.
Only bright side if it reminds me to not do it again- $3000 might be well spent.