Is this "system" crazy?

[Glenn Quagmire]

Ok, this may not be a system per se, but tell me what you guys think of this. Anytime a road team leads by double digits at half, take the home team - whatever in the 2h. I know it's very simplistic, and I haven't followed this on every game, but the majority of games I've followed the home team has covered in the 2h when they're down DD at half.

The thinking is that teams very rarely play well for a full 4 quarters when they're on the road. And if they're up by double digits at half, they've been doing a pretty good job of controlling the game up to that point. Furthermore, I highly doubt most NBA players care if they win by 20, or 1.

Philly is another home team that is going to cover tonight. Down 12 at half, they were -5 in the 2h, and they're going into the 4q up 4.

Has anyone else noticed this, or am I nuts?

 

[HUDSON]

Jazz 7-0 run to start 4th.......System seems pretty interesting though. That's a great unique way to maybe find a solid system. Track for a week or two and see how it does.....

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Hudson,

You beat me to it. :mj07: I was just about to post that. I should have said, Sixers will PROBABLY cover tonight.

I haven't kept a list or anything, but most of the games I've watched that fall into this scenario the home team has covered. I'm going to start tracking the games and if the trend continues, I may have to start playing these.

In the interest of full disclosure, I suck at the NBA. So if I can find any kind of trend that seems to pay off I will certainly use it.

 

[bleedingpurple]

76ers have scored 10 points in the fourth q thus far.. Scored 30 in the 3rd

 

[HUDSON]

Hudson,

You beat me to it. :mj07: I was just about to post that. I should have said, Sixers will PROBABLY cover tonight.

I haven't kept a list or anything, but most of the games I've watched that fall into this scenario the home team has covered. I'm going to start tracking the games and if the trend continues, I may have to start playing these.

In the interest of full disclosure, I suck at the NBA. So if I can find any kind of trend that seems to pay off I will certainly use it.

That's the way to do it....you sit down, look at last years games and stats and find consistent trends that win at a high %.

 

[bleedingpurple]

O meant the 76ers have scored 9 points.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Is my timing impeccable or what? The night I decide to post this is the night that the Sixers decide to shoot major holes in this theory. :mj07: Total 4th quarter meltdown by the Sixers there.

FWIW, I went back to the start of the season and looked at all of the games in which the road team was favored by at least 10 points. Since I don't have spreads for those games, I only counted wins and losses on games that were obvious (e.g. a team is up 15 at half, and wins the game by 3 would mean they obviously didn't cover the 2h number). There were 4 or 5 games that were too close to guess, but on the obvious ones the home teams were 5-2. After the Sixers game tonight it would be 5-3. Not exactly overwhelming numbers, but I'm still curious so I will track it further.

GL all...

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

3-1 so far tonight. I'll track this for a few more days and if it keeps up, I'll start blindly using this system. I don't think number crunching does much good in the NBA since you can never count on teams to show up (see New Orleans tonight), so I may as well give this a whirl. :0corn

 

[harlytiger]

Thanks for the insite I LOVE TRENDS:00hour

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

No problem harly. Hopefully it will prove to be beneficial over the long term.

Haven't had any games fall into this system on Thursday or Friday. :shrug: