Is this the weekend it ends?

[JEFF]

The dogs are covering at an amazing rate, and the overs are comng through in numbers every week. The lines obviosuly are being adjusted, in most seasons I don't think TB would only be favored by 2 and both the Eagles and Raiders by just a field goal.

So the question is, is this the week the faves start covering? We all know how these ATS results have a way of skewing toward 50/50 by the end of the year. It appears at least a few of the faves may have some value this week.

On one hand, I keep thinking every week that this is the week the faves cover. Conversely, I am a dog bettor by nature and its hard not to keep riding 'em.

Thoughts?

 

[GM]

Hey Jeff,

Good question. No doubt somewhere along the line we're going to see 10 or 12 favorites cover in one week. Could be this week...but could also be Week 8, Week 11....who knows when?

I think we just have to keep handicapping the games to the best of our abilities and let the chips fall as they may. There are going to be extreme weeks both ways, but it's no more likely to happen right now just because we're coming off a few dog weeks. If we start intentionally betting favorites just because they're favorites we might not be doing ourselves any favors.

BTW, for O/U's, I have the season count at just 32-27-1 for Overs. And considering Overs went 12-4 the first week, there have actually been more Unders than Overs since then. (6-9-1 in Week 2, 6-8 in Week 3, 8-6 in Week 4). I think the totals got adjusted upwards very early on when the scoring in Week 1 went nuts and set an all-time weekly record. Pretty strange to see almost every total at 41 or higher now!

 

[JEFF]

Excellent points Greg. I saw those #s on the O/U right after I posted -- they are winning, but not as much as i believed. I guess it just seems that way.

You're right about not betting faves just because, and as they say its certainly easier to go with a streak then end it, cuz it only ends once.

I think the rising O/U numbers can be used to our benefit, and I am going to try to search out some unders with value.

 

[GM]

I think part of the reason it seems like everything is going Over is that when a lot of these games go Over, they go WAAAAAYYY Over.

How's this for a stat? Every week there has been at least one game which has totalled *78* points or more. Nine times 68+ points have been scored in a game. LOL These are some crazy numbers!

Week 1: KC 40, Cleve 39....NYJ 37, Buf 31....GB 37, Atl 34
Week 2: Buff 45, Minn 39
Week 3: NE 41, KC 38....GB 37, Det 31
Week 4: KC 48, Mia 30....Oak 52, Tenn 25....Sea 48, Minn 23

 

[GM]

Correction...10 times 68+....

Week 1: Miami 49, Detroit 21