Jack

[Iminforabuck]

Is baseball the sport you've had the most success capping? you certainly had a nice year last year. I've never capped the sport.....and might just coattail someone this year.

Just was wondering.....thanks

 

[Iminforabuck]

okay...maybe didnt word that right. I'll just figure things out as I go along.

 

[JT]

KCWolf was the best of the best but he is a service now, depending on how much your bankroll is and average play perhaps you should go that rout. Thunder finished I think somewhere between 90-100% last year, not sure. Guy is solid all around. Other guys who i'll always check just to see are monkey, Innavation, fletcher, Raymond. I'm sure you'll see. Batter Up!

 

[Iminforabuck]

Thank you for the help

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thing about KC was that he was a tough guy to follow on this board because often times he was unable to post until about 4 p.m. PST so many times the east coast games were virtually unplayable if you were truly trying to tail somebody. Obviously this is his first season with a service so plays will have to be made early in the day so it is impossible to tell how that will affect his results.

Fletcher ran a very successful baseball service last year, but you would have to ask him where it is documented if you want to see the full records. He's forgotten more about the actual playing and psychology of the game of baseball than most folks ever knew (one of his favorite quotes ). He does play a decent number of dogs but his big plays will be faves so you better be willing to take the hit on faves if you play with him.

I think gsp is a smart baseball handicapper who, in my opinion, relies too much on umpire data. Just my opinion. Actually, gsp is smart at just about every sport. I don't know if he has ever documented his results but I swear when this guy sees something it is usually right on target.

Jack had a great season in baseball last year and obivously he knows what he's doing. I know IE knows his stuff as well because I can credit basically 100% of my success in baseball to the knowledge I have learned from IE.

Meestermike had a great baseball season last year, his first on this board. He plays way too many plays for my nerves, but if you love action, try him out. He may be starting a service, though.

ndnfan is starting a service and I would definitely stay away from anyone who is entering their first ever season of selling picks. I am not going to mention the names of the folks who have failed and posted results far worse in their first service season than they had ever publicly posted before, but just trust me on that one. Running a service is a whole different animal than just posting plays in a free forum and there is no way I would trust my money with someone who is just starting up with no documented service record. I am sure that ndnfan, who by all indications is a good handicapper and a nice guy, will like me a whole lot less for writing that, but I have to be honest about things like that.

Nolan will surely have plenty of baseball angles. If you play totals he will probably post some decent winners. I am sure there are others out there as well that I have forgotten about by accident and many more that I am "forgetting" to mention on purpose because I don't want to start a flame war by publicly noting my honest opinion of their handicapping prowess.

One thing I want to qualify in all of this is that I DO NOT recommend blindly tailing anyone unless you are betting relative peanuts. Learn to handicap yourself if you are going to bet any kind of significant amount of money. Of course there are exceptions, but that is generally a pretty good rule.

 

[Iminforabuck]

Nick,

wow....thanks for the detailed response. I've never ventured into capping baseball.....but it's something I'm eager to learn. In the meantime.....this baseball newbie greatly appreciates the time you put forth to respond.

Thanks

 

[SmashMouth]

Some good thoughts in this thread. Here is my advice.
1) Stay awy from the huge chalk. Nothing eats into a bankroll more than betting huge favs.
2) STay away from run lines. Don't lay 1 and a half runs with a good pitcher just to avoid the huge money line.
3) In other sports you need to go at a 57 percent clip to to make money. In Baseball if you play dogs predominently this is not the case. If you bet 3 games in a day. All at +160, and your bet unit is 100.00. If you hit 2 out of 3 you are up $220. If you lose your next game under those same parameters, you are a 50 percent handicapper yet you are still up 120 on the week.
4) Follow guys who are honest. Especially if they post records and show profit and loss records. If you are going to pay someone for picks, Kc Wolf and Fletcher would be good choices and they will work something out within your budget.
5) Pitching is everything. I like to bet good pitchers on bad teams, because I can get ggod prices on them. I try to make small plays against Pedro and other aces when they are huge chalk. A win at +360 can make your week.
6) Pick one team or two tops and try to get in there heads and no them inside and out. No what they are going to do in the day at night vs lefties etc. Off long road trips you get the idea. Make it a team you neither love or hate. So your heart is not in it. Last year I had a team that I bet on or against over 100 times. I didn't post it because it was my own little experiment. It was the only thing that worked well for me last year.
Baseball was always my biggest money maker last year I got beat up badly. I got into trouble betting to many favs. I never dug out.
7) Set goals for yourself. I don't know what you bet in terms of units, but remember it is a marathon not a race. If you are a 100 dollar player a reasonable goal is 1000 profit a month. Will you hit it?? Probably not but why not shoot for it.
More later.

 

[Iminforabuck]

Excellent info to go on Smash.....thank you very much......wrote em down. I have bet a few baseball games before.....and know firsthand how the chalk can break ya bad.

Not many places where ya can get experienced people to take the time to help like here.

Thanks again

 

[SmashMouth]

Anytime.
That is why this is the best sight on the net. There is always someone who wants to help.

 

[kcwolf]

deleted

 

[S-Love]

One other note to add to Nick's comments:

Some cappers post their games using 'local' lines which generally are not available to the masses. These sometimes very generous local lines will inflates a baseball cappers unit record significantly- 3 or 4 games won or lost a day with a 10cent difference would add up to over 70+ units over the course of a roughly 180 day season.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Excellent point, S-Love. One other thing I forgot to add is that truly documented records are done for many cappers on this site at bestbettor.com. Again, that is an imperfect system in part because every bet is flat so you can't lay juice on faves, but you would at least get an idea of how folks did using real lines.

 

[mercury]

Nick was good 2 years ago,not so good last.Jack was good last year;this year...?

 

[Nick Douglas]

I wouldn't recommend tailing me for anything right now until I get untracked with my handicapping. I haven't posted consistent winners since July and really I would say that I haven't been had strong results up to my standards since the end of last March.

The only thing I can say in support of myself is that I always play whatever I post and I always research every play.