Joan Guzman vs Nate Campbell

[nj]

this fight is scheduled for sept 13 same day as Casa/Marquez, so a line could be up very soon. i figured we should discuss it before the line is released, then jump on any opportunities. guzman's talent is now out of the bag and nate campbell is still unpredictable, so the odds will likely be cautuious on fighter and rds, they may even have the wrong sides as chalk.

my play would likely be guzman as a dog. his inactivity is a potential problem, he did train thoroughly for the alex arthur fight so he should be in shape, but the gym and the ring are different places. against soto he showed improved defense under mayweather sr, hand speed, reasonable power, great movement and great inside counter-punching.

ithis fight should be very close and decisive in the final rounds. mayweather sr did criticize guzman for being in bad shape, and campbell was in tremendous shape against juan diaz. we dont know if guzman slowed late vs soto because he was ahead, or if he was tiring, i suspect the former. the extra 5lbs may favour campbell, but guzman was a big 130lber, weighing 148 against soto.

there may be value in the under, probably at 10.5. i see nate throwing higher volume with consistent pressure, and guzman looking to counter and control the distance. but this fight should be close enough on the cards to keep them both busy for 12 full rounds, someone could gas out or get caught. both have solid chins, guzman has never been tested very hard, nate is the more shop-worn of the two and has been out. but the exchanges should be furious, both guys are confident in their power and in their chins. headbutts could come into play.

campbell should be the slight chalk because he has the more recent win, the higher weight class, better reach, and the more impressive show of conditioning in his fight. id guess -150/+130, ov/und 10.5 -175/+150

guzman is with golden boy, campbell with don king, i dont see any funny business. the winner of this is in line for a huge payday against winner of campbell/marquez or the likely pac/soto fight. lots of $ at stake here, i say both guys show up in tremendous shape, guzman wins by close unanimous decision in a thriller.

 

[frank s.]

Separate thread on marquee fights, in my opinion, is a good idea as we can focus and posts don't get lost/not read if included in other big name matchups. Make sense?

 

[nj]

Separate thread on marquee fights, in my opinion, is a good idea as we can focus and posts don't get lost/not read if included in other big name matchups. Make sense?

sure thing boss :thumb:

 

[nj]

BUMP

Guzman -300
Campbell +220

:scared

Anyone else shocked by that line? I was looking forward to a big bet on Guzman at nearly even, that's not happening!

If the fight were tomorrow I'd take Campbell at this line, the Campbell that fought Diaz is a live dog to say the least. There's a ton at stake here and if Nate comes in shape and focused (big ?), this is damn near even in my opinion. With the financial repercussions and his age, there is no excuse for a poor camp from Nate.

I like Guzman but I didn't think the public would, and definitely not this much!

 

[frank s.]

One of my collaborators likes Nate at this nice price also. It should be a competitive fight. The thing I can't forget is when I bet Campbell and he stuck his chin out to Peden and got dropped. WTF! He seems to have corrected this behavior though. I think the price on Guzman is WAY too high, FWIW.

 

[gardenweasel]

guzman`s another guy who is,imo pfp material.....

but at what point does he move up one step to far?...

and which nate shows up for work?...

a toughie...

 

[weepaul]

Hey Brothers,

You can get Guzman at -175.

I love Nate to death and I won big money betting on him against Diaz.
I believe Nate's strongest point is speed and I believe he will be in deep shit when he suffers Guzman's speed. He will be shocked that someone is so much faster.

I will be all over Guzmam for this fight.

 

[THE_THONG]

hmmm

i was there live in cancun and baby bull's hands looked damn fast, he was slapping nate up early

joan and juan have that same slappity punch technique

i think nate can cope


if nate campbell comes out to the music of Nate dogg, then he will surely regulate

 

[HurricaneEddy]

If Isaac Hwhatthehellishisname can decision Campbell then Guzman will clown him. End of story

 

[Kramden]

If Isaac Hwhatthehellishisname can decision Campbell then Guzman will clown him. End of story

Yeah, but Isaac is really a welterweight. Guzman is coming up from 122 not too long ago. Barrios was tough against Guzman in the 2nd half of their fight.

I think Campbell is at a higher level than Barrios and is really feeling good at lightweight. And now with the title, I think he's the kind of guy that can trrive on that.

Further, did anyone see recent pics of Guzman. Shit, he looked like he weighed 155 pounds. Campbell looks fit right now.

 

[frank s.]

Campbell is commentating on ESPN; always a good sign. I love a guy who is available and confronts the media. This will be a good fight.

 

[nj]

nate had a perfectly reasonable explanation regarding his erratic showing before juan diaz: cash. he didnt have it before and was forced to worry about outside issues to support his family, but for the diaz fight he did nothing but train and left them enough in his absence.

a campbell with a full traininig camp and njo distractions is a bad mofo. he is surely making a career-high payday for this fight and there is HUGE cash available down the line, i cannot see him showing up unprepared for this fight.

one thing i love about nate is his boxing iq, he is tremendous at predicting other people's fights with accuracy, and seems to be reasonable with himself as well. he probably watches guzman and fairly picks guzman's strengths and weaknesses as well as finding his own sterngth and weaknesses, and thinks up a strong gampeplan.


ive set up a few parlays already and will make severl more ending with guzman, since he is the logical choice in this one, but something keeps pulling me to campbell. hopefully ill have guzman at near even so i can take a scalp with nate +200, he is a VERY live dog in this bout.

 

[gardenweasel]

nate had a perfectly reasonable explanation regarding his erratic showing before juan diaz: cash. he didnt have it before and was forced to worry about outside issues to support his family, but for the diaz fight he did nothing but train and left them enough in his absence.

a campbell with a full traininig camp and njo distractions is a bad mofo. he is surely making a career-high payday for this fight and there is HUGE cash available down the line, i cannot see him showing up unprepared for this fight.

one thing i love about nate is his boxing iq, he is tremendous at predicting other people's fights with accuracy, and seems to be reasonable with himself as well. he probably watches guzman and fairly picks guzman's strengths and weaknesses as well as finding his own sterngth and weaknesses, and thinks up a strong gampeplan.


ive set up a few parlays already and will make severl more ending with guzman, since he is the logical choice in this one, but something keeps pulling me to campbell. hopefully ill have guzman at near even so i can take a scalp with nate +200, he is a VERY live dog in this bout.

i was a huge nate believer until robbie peden.....

TWICE!.....

nate campbell should NEVER lose to a robbie peden....

the first time...sheer stupidity...

the second time?....i still haven`t figured that out...

 

[frank s.]

Yea, weasel, the 2nd time was a total mystery. Peden ain't no world class dude to begin with. I saw him at what was the Frontier when he was in his supposed prime. Mediocre. Like paulie says, Guzman has outstanding speed. I'm on the fence with this one until it gets closer. Hopefully more will be revealed.

 

[nj]

the more i think about it, i lean towards guzman, and big. Guzman gives me a sense of being a near mayweather, a p4p virtuoso who you can form logical arguments about him losing, but he never does. He's just that good.

after reading some trash-talk between the two and reading about their camps, it sounds like Joan is in shape and really busting his ass in the gym, taking this fight seriously with training regiments rivaliving floyd jr. vs Soto he was criticized by his own coach for conditioning, and ending up hydrating 18 pounds overnight. late in that fight he fought reserveed either because he was tired or he knew soto wasnt going to buckle anyhow.

the extra 5 lbs should help him. if we have a weight-healthy, condiotioned joan guzman who can fight for 12 rounds against a limited opponent who can and has been stopped, this could be a massacre.

i like nate, but guzman is no juan diaz. guzman will not stay in the pocket with his head down trading body punches, and he will not rely on attrition to wear down nate, which is an impossible task.

this is still nate campbell, a guy whose been a cut above journeyman stuatus his career. i can believe his excuse about having to work as well as atrain previously, but to what extent is this valid? hes fighting a virtuoso where heart and will doesnt matter, guzman can make him look foolish here and the cinderella run ala baldomir.

i have guzman in many parlays and will keep doing so, with a smaller hedge than previously planned. I also have a small bet on him by KO +500.



im looking at guzman and juan diaz as being cash cows this september, after a lousy august.

 

[nj]

the inactivity is an issue though, it must be taxing to have a full training camp for a fight that ends up being cancelled, hopefully it didnt affect guzman much

 

[Zerwas]

I actually think there might be some value in Campbell.

I dont think Campbell can win this fight by ko, every other outcome IMO has a distinctive likeliness, even though I dont think Guzman will recover the punching power he had at the lower weights.

:shrug:

I'm going to watch some clips of Guzman before I make my final decision on this one...

 

[nj]

maaaan.... im starting to flip-flop again on this one. i started writing my opinion on this fight, and the longer i typed, the more i leaned to Nate again. i have a very bad gut feeling and am glad this fight is 2 week away.

my post at another forum:

"I think Campbell will give him more trouble than Pac or Casa would. I want to bet HUGE on Guzman against virtually anybody, but it's been relegated to a medium bet, a focused and conditioned Nate Campbell is a difficult match-up. I was damn near praying for a Guz-Pac match, I could get Guz +200 and watch him embarrass Manny. IMO this is the worst match-up for him, Nate has high boxing IQ, size and reach, stamina, high punch output, long arms, knows how to cut the ring off, throws at various angles, and can fight at any distance. This level of adaptability is exactly what Guz doesn't want to see, and what Im scared to bet on. Nate doesnt come in with a single-minded and direct gameplan like a Pacquiao, but rather feels out his opponents and changes strategy on the spot, Campbell won't be figured out easily and dominated the way Soto was.

One of the great things about a Guzman-like fighter is once they get into a rhythm and find their opponents weakness, they are godly. However once Guzman finds a weakness in Campbell, Nate is wise enough to adjust mid-rounds, and I dont think Guzman will ever enter "the zone" where is completely unstoppable."


ive got guzman -200 in many parlays, im thinking to take the scalp, hopefully nate +225

 

[weepaul]

Guzman is winning this fight and I am betting HUGE on him.
He is quicker and has a good chin. Nate is pretty fast but I believe he will be shocked at how fast Guzman is.
Guzman is also multi dimentional, just like Nate. It is my opinion that Guzman is a better version of Nate.

Styles make fights and I knew Diaz was going to have trouble with Nate.

This time Nate is going to be the one in deep shit.

Good luck all.

 

[Andrey]

I bet 3 times on fights that involved Nate and 3 times lost. Nate for me is like something out this world, he lost fights that he seems to have no chance of losing and won fights that he seems to had no chance of winning. I think, I will stay away from any fights involved Nate in the future.