Jord20's pre-tourney chatter
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
If you have something constructive to say - feel free to join in.
2 rules (respectfully)...
1. Please don't just post who you like in this thread unless you back it up with some info or thoughts - you can use your own threads to make your plays
2. I don't give a rat's ass about who got screwed and all that garbage, unless it relates to using it to cap an existing game - so please don't make me facepalm myself with that talk in this thread.
2 rules (respectfully)...
1. Please don't just post who you like in this thread unless you back it up with some info or thoughts - you can use your own threads to make your plays
2. I don't give a rat's ass about who got screwed and all that garbage, unless it relates to using it to cap an existing game - so please don't make me facepalm myself with that talk in this thread.
- Apr 25, 2014
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agreed, overrated. Virginia is my pick to go all the way. Which wont be easy, but didn't like anything quite as much. There's a play I'm eyeing pretty big, Thinking you'll be on the same for sure. Will post it tonight or tomorrow. Good luck to you during the tournament.
Jord, the vast majority of the time the read you have on a team is spot on. Every once in a while though, I think you get really stubborn about a team and refuse to change your mind despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. I think you're doing that with Michigan St.
Except for the 2 blowout losses against Iowa (which I honestly have absolutely no explanation for, other than Valentine being out for the first one and just barely back for the 2nd) this is a team who has lost 3 other games the entire year - all of which were by a single point. Basically, somehow Iowa has their number and they had one bad week in January. This is a team that is really good on both sides of the ball, and you can't deny that Valentine is a true gamer. Then there's Izzo, who is one of the greatest tourney coaches of all time. Are they a lock for the Final Four? Not at all. But I do think they're a lock for the Elite 8 and, as such, am just very surprised to see you immediately eliminate them from consideration.
BTW, not an MSU fan in any way shape or form.
Also not a fan of Kansas. Yes, I'm still bitter about Bill Self kicking my Illini to the curb. I'll get over it when the Illini finally win a championship (so never). But I likewise am somewhat mystified to see you dismiss them immediately. They have easily been the most consistent team this season. Ranked #1 on KenPom in mid-January and number 1 today. They've beaten very good teams on the road and bludgeoned very good teams at home. They've also got the easiest path to the Final 4 IMO.
Teams which I think are far easier to dismiss:
Oklahoma - How can you not love Hield? The problem is they are just way too dependent on the 3. Eventually their will come a game in the tourney where the 3 doesn't fall and I don't think they will find another way to win.
Villanova - Jay Wright finally got them to the Final Four a few years back, but a 14-10 overall tournament record does not scream "Final Four" to me. They've yet to win more than 1 game in a tournament over the last 5 years since that Final Four run.
Xavier - Most of the time, they look like a great team. But like clockwork, every 4-5 games they lay an egg. I don't know when the next one is coming, but I'm convinced it will be before the Final 4.
Virginia - Is this the year they finally get over the hump? Quite possibly but, fair or not, you get no cred until you prove you can get through Mich St.
So, I guess by process of elimination that leaves:
Kansas
Oregon
North Carolina
Michigan St
Think I like North Carolina the best of that group, but they're also in the bracket of death. Heading into this weekend, I was thinking I'd be picking UNC, Indiana, and Kentucky all to make fairly deep runs. Now at least 2 of those will be gone by the elite 8 and 1 for sure by the sweet 16. Still think UNC goes to the Final Four but either Indiana or Kentucky could beat them and it wasn't that much of an upset. Hell, Providence should give them a hell of a game.
Other one I think is precarious is Oregon. Having just moved out West, I've watched a lot more Pac-12 basketball this year than ever before. My impression is that the conference is full of good teams but no great ones. Oregon is clearly the class of the league but they can be had.
Except for the 2 blowout losses against Iowa (which I honestly have absolutely no explanation for, other than Valentine being out for the first one and just barely back for the 2nd) this is a team who has lost 3 other games the entire year - all of which were by a single point. Basically, somehow Iowa has their number and they had one bad week in January. This is a team that is really good on both sides of the ball, and you can't deny that Valentine is a true gamer. Then there's Izzo, who is one of the greatest tourney coaches of all time. Are they a lock for the Final Four? Not at all. But I do think they're a lock for the Elite 8 and, as such, am just very surprised to see you immediately eliminate them from consideration.
BTW, not an MSU fan in any way shape or form.
Also not a fan of Kansas. Yes, I'm still bitter about Bill Self kicking my Illini to the curb. I'll get over it when the Illini finally win a championship (so never). But I likewise am somewhat mystified to see you dismiss them immediately. They have easily been the most consistent team this season. Ranked #1 on KenPom in mid-January and number 1 today. They've beaten very good teams on the road and bludgeoned very good teams at home. They've also got the easiest path to the Final 4 IMO.
Teams which I think are far easier to dismiss:
Oklahoma - How can you not love Hield? The problem is they are just way too dependent on the 3. Eventually their will come a game in the tourney where the 3 doesn't fall and I don't think they will find another way to win.
Villanova - Jay Wright finally got them to the Final Four a few years back, but a 14-10 overall tournament record does not scream "Final Four" to me. They've yet to win more than 1 game in a tournament over the last 5 years since that Final Four run.
Xavier - Most of the time, they look like a great team. But like clockwork, every 4-5 games they lay an egg. I don't know when the next one is coming, but I'm convinced it will be before the Final 4.
Virginia - Is this the year they finally get over the hump? Quite possibly but, fair or not, you get no cred until you prove you can get through Mich St.
So, I guess by process of elimination that leaves:
Kansas
Oregon
North Carolina
Michigan St
Think I like North Carolina the best of that group, but they're also in the bracket of death. Heading into this weekend, I was thinking I'd be picking UNC, Indiana, and Kentucky all to make fairly deep runs. Now at least 2 of those will be gone by the elite 8 and 1 for sure by the sweet 16. Still think UNC goes to the Final Four but either Indiana or Kentucky could beat them and it wasn't that much of an upset. Hell, Providence should give them a hell of a game.
Other one I think is precarious is Oregon. Having just moved out West, I've watched a lot more Pac-12 basketball this year than ever before. My impression is that the conference is full of good teams but no great ones. Oregon is clearly the class of the league but they can be had.
I'm a West Coast/Pac12 guy (not that it makes my opinion worth anything). I didn't watch a ton of College BB this year, but saw Oregon play in person (L at stanford) and a couple other times. They strike me as a VERY athletic team, but not very skilled.
8th in the conference in 3PT-FG%
7th in Assists/GM
9th in REB/GM (a little odd)
2nd in Steals/GM
2nd in Blocks/GM
Tough team for me to back based purely on their athleticism to make a deep run.
8th in the conference in 3PT-FG%
7th in Assists/GM
9th in REB/GM (a little odd)
2nd in Steals/GM
2nd in Blocks/GM
Tough team for me to back based purely on their athleticism to make a deep run.
I don't think I'm being stubborn with this team at all. I've watched a bunch of their games. They aren't that good. Look at their recent win streak - 3 of those wins were against Ohio St!! They should have lost both the Maryland and Purdue games - they got lucky as the other teams both had cold open shooting, and made some bonehead plays down the stretch. Look, Valentine is an absolute man among boys - but outside of him, you sort of cringe when anyone else has the ball. Again, when I am "against" teams, it's not because I don't think they are good. Everything is relative. I know by watching that this team is overrated. Those last 2 games against good teams proved that to me. Again, they have Valentine, and Izzo always has them prepared - but I won't back off my stance that they aren't that good - and that people overrate the crap out of them because Izzo and their jerseys.
Oregon is a joke of a 1 seed. I don't care that they got it, they just aren't elite.
I cannot take a Kansas team like this seriously. Self and Kansas are both notorious for choking in the tourney. They have some nice experience, and some nice size, but I don't trust their shooting to hold up, and I don't trust Self as a game coach with pressure.
see my last response.
MSU has a very easy road, but still think they will fumble. Valentine can carry them, but I don't see it. I like both Maryland and Cal over Kansas - and then Zona/Miami/Nova too.
They def have some winnable games to the 8, but I will most likely back either Cinn or St Joes in rd 2
I'm not sure yet for bracket purposes. For me, brackets mean next to nothing, except to show my kids, employees, friends how much I know, lol. And, that isn't something I care about at all - so with the small money in them, I just don't put much value and time into figuring out who I like to go deep from the beginning. It's just of importance to me in any way.
I did an auction - but I had no experience in them, so I fumbled a few things. Those auctions are fantastic though - I'm going to def pursue those for next year. FWIW, I paid for Baylor, N. Iowa, St Joe's, GB, Okla, Purdue, and I split Nova. Other teams I wanted, but didn't get were UNC, Indy, Utah, Maryland, and Pitt.
Gun to my head, Oklahoma, UNC, Purdue, and then Nova/Maryland probably.
UNC is the best team, but they have a BRUTAL road. I love Okla's draw, and actually think Buddy will carry them. You all know how I feel about Purdue. If Hammonds plays tough, and they get decent shooting, they will be a TOUGH out. Trust me. That being said, I love Arky Little Rock, and that was not a team I was happy to see them face. I may even take the points in Rd1 - we'll see.
The SOuth is the biggest wildcard bracket for me, as I wouldn't be surprised with many, many outcomes there.
Those are some initial thoughts
I agree that Zona could easily lose 1st round. Right, I forgot WuShock and Vandy there too. I like both of those teams. This is the toughest bracket to "predict" for me.
- Oct 15, 2015
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North Carolina - showed in the ACC tournament what they have to offer when the stakes are the highest.
Maryland - love their back court. they have the talent to cut down the nets but whatever reason they haven't fully been able to put it together.
Oklahoma - playing in the weakest region i've seen in a long time. they have the best player in the region.
Gonzaga - i think anyone can come out of this region. i like Purdue a lot as well.
Maryland - love their back court. they have the talent to cut down the nets but whatever reason they haven't fully been able to put it together.
Oklahoma - playing in the weakest region i've seen in a long time. they have the best player in the region.
Gonzaga - i think anyone can come out of this region. i like Purdue a lot as well.
UNC has Roy Williams at the helm... That is their biggest obstacle!
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I have em winning in a few of my brackets...I feel like uve jumped the IU ship and boarded Purdues!
GL Jord in the tourney, my final 4 are:
Kansas, Oklahoma, UNC, Mich St
KU & Mich St in Final, Sparty winning it all, only cuz I think Valentine is a purdy good playa!!
GL!
