Kansas will not advance to the Sweet 16
- Thread starter ageecee
- Start date
agree.. sit back and wait for them to be favored and then hit that money line against them....
Same for that overated Texas team too.
Same for that overated Texas team too.
Texas is on the bubble and may well not get in. If they do would be as a 10-12 seed. How could they be overrated, much less by any standard that matters? They wont even be seeded to win one game. Kansas will be favored in any NCAA game they play until a regional final - so where is the time to "sit back?" Gonna moneyline their 2 v 15 tilt?
high seeds (1-4) with GREAT potential to fall prior to sweet 16:
BC
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke (unlikely if they are placed in NC for 1st two rounds)
mid level seeds (5-10) who have GREAT potential to beat these teams in round 2
LSU
Charlotte
UCLA
Ga Tech
Villanove
BC
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke (unlikely if they are placed in NC for 1st two rounds)
mid level seeds (5-10) who have GREAT potential to beat these teams in round 2
LSU
Charlotte
UCLA
Ga Tech
Villanove
Kansas will make it to the elite 8. They will need better outside shooting to advance to the final four. Not far fetched to think Kansas gets hot shooting during the tourney and if so they are an extremely dangerous team with Simien down low. Lotta experience on this Kansas team. Didn't KU just beat OSU this past weekend?
Hoops I would start by saying I dont bet futures, In addition, alot of my capping style is selecting against teams, not on them, so when you say I talk about who isnt going to do something that is because of how I analyze things. I am not trying to pick a tourney winner, I am eliminating teams.
In terms of what I think in a non-wagering manner as to who will win, I ould tell you my dart throws, but that is somewhat absurd when you dont know who will be playing against whom - ie I would have very different answers depending o the bracket. But in a vacuum, I would be looking hard at Okie State, Wake Forest, Washington. I am not impressed with the top teams and i really think someone is going to get hot, face a favorable draw, and come from like a 3 or 4 seed to win. However the sites and the seeding is going to be very favorable to Illinois.
In terms of what I think in a non-wagering manner as to who will win, I ould tell you my dart throws, but that is somewhat absurd when you dont know who will be playing against whom - ie I would have very different answers depending o the bracket. But in a vacuum, I would be looking hard at Okie State, Wake Forest, Washington. I am not impressed with the top teams and i really think someone is going to get hot, face a favorable draw, and come from like a 3 or 4 seed to win. However the sites and the seeding is going to be very favorable to Illinois.
I can see them going on a run. I dont think final four, but with a good draw could be in a regional final.
I think that from a betting standpoint KS is one of the most dangerous teams in the tourney. It really looks like after the tough loss at TTech they didn't get motivated against ISU. Then with that loss, they pretty much knew that there shot at a #1 seed had gone out the window. I don't think they're motivated to try and "lock-in" a #2 and the worst they're probably going to be is a #3 if they lose there last game and lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney. So we certainly haven't seen there best effort the last couple games. The question then becomes: will they be able to just turn it on again in the tourney? Well in the past, some teams have been able to and some teams haven't. From a game by game standpoint it isn't that bad; if they make the sweet sixteen you should be able to tell if they're hanging on by a thread or if they've gotten it all together. But this is gonna be a maddening team when it comes to filling out your brackets. There two-faced nature lends both an argument to them making it to the Final Four as well as getting knocked out in the 2nd round. If they don't make the final game of the Big 12 tourney, I'm going to lean towards the latter . . .
Watched them all year and other than winning at Kentucky i havent been very impressed. Many of their games, especially at home, have been far too interesting. And 2 of the losses havent just been bad, they have gotten drilled. You forgot the OU loss in there as well. A middle of the pack Big East team destroyed them. Simien is a beast, but they have all sorts of holes. It was only a matter of time til they lost a few. Glad i figured out wehn as the last couple of weeks betting against them has been quite profitable.
Now are they capable, sure, just like about 15 other teams.
Now are they capable, sure, just like about 15 other teams.
Sun Tzu said:
How in the world could you put 3 teams ahead of UNC and/or Illinois. What does UNC or Illinois have to prove more to you? I understand both are not a lock to win it all but I don't see how anybody can put 3 teams to win it ahead of them. Your prediction were 3 teams who you think "as of right now" would win it NOT who to wager on.
Doesn't make sense to me. UW, OSU, and WF are 3 great teams (and I have $$$ on 2/3) but you put all 3 ahead of Illinois and UNC???? Why?
Curious to what these 3 teams have shown you and what UNC and Illinois has not shown you to be in your top 3?
I undertstand "value" picks or "sleepers" but I don't see how anybody cannot put UNC and/or Illinois in their top teams to win it all. Makes no sense to me. Doesn't mean they will win it all but you gotta think they have the highest probability too. Especially since both will be #1 seeds.
Something else I find odd. You slam Kansas saying they won't go past the sweet 16 yet you have OSU has one of your top 3 teams to win it all. Kansas just beat OSU. Thats gotta count for something (despite being played @KU), especially since OSU is one of your top 3 teams to win it all. According to the computers, KU has played the toughest schedule. Gotta count for something as well.
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1) north carolina has roy williams on their sideline. that decreases their chances of winning the ncaa championship before the first game is played. they will probably win the acc tournament but theyre not winning the national title.
2) not to beat a dead horse, but illinois HAS to lose a game before the ncaa tourney. if they dont, you can pencil them in for an upset loss for sure. michigan state will beat them in the big 10 tourney and that will be the best thing for illinois. if the illini go into the tourney undefeated, theyre not winning it...period. this team is not unlv circa 1992 where they can intimidate you with their winning streak. illinois is very good, but not good enough to withstand the pressure of heading into the tourney w/o a loss.
3) ive always been a big kansas fan (and had them at great odds to win the tourney a few years ago when they choked to syracuse. but they dont impress me this year at all. normally id be the first to defend kansas but to me, theyre just not a great team.
i played wake forest at 10/1 before the season started and im not wavering off that. michigan state and duke would be my medium-range long shots.
2) not to beat a dead horse, but illinois HAS to lose a game before the ncaa tourney. if they dont, you can pencil them in for an upset loss for sure. michigan state will beat them in the big 10 tourney and that will be the best thing for illinois. if the illini go into the tourney undefeated, theyre not winning it...period. this team is not unlv circa 1992 where they can intimidate you with their winning streak. illinois is very good, but not good enough to withstand the pressure of heading into the tourney w/o a loss.
3) ive always been a big kansas fan (and had them at great odds to win the tourney a few years ago when they choked to syracuse. but they dont impress me this year at all. normally id be the first to defend kansas but to me, theyre just not a great team.
i played wake forest at 10/1 before the season started and im not wavering off that. michigan state and duke would be my medium-range long shots.
Great logic there Scott. Iowa State beat Kansas, should we pencil them into St Louis? Or Santa Clara because they beat UNC? WHat happened in Lawrence last Saturday doesnt mean diddly. IMO you look at hoops like football and that doesnt work. But maybe you know more about Big 12 teams than I do.
UNC has Roy. He has failed to win it when it was an easier road and he had even more talent. When it counts, he is the Buffalo Bills, Mack Brown, Marty Schottenheimer, Bill Cowher, and Greg Norman all rolled in one. The question isnt which team SHOULD win, it is which team will. Take a look at recent history and tell me how often the team that should win does. Historically we know that at best 2 of the #1 seeds will even make the final four. Let' say UNC gets to St Louis - that may end up the most anti-UNC crowd you can find outside of Durham - the KU people will go just to cheer for them to lose
As for Illinois, they are an excellent team doing it in a down league. It has been months since they played a true tough game against a talented team. There is a reason we dont see unbeatens anymore. In fact, find the last 1 loss team to win it all.
Finally, I cant believe you are trying to persuade me, or anyone, with what some computer says.
UNC has Roy. He has failed to win it when it was an easier road and he had even more talent. When it counts, he is the Buffalo Bills, Mack Brown, Marty Schottenheimer, Bill Cowher, and Greg Norman all rolled in one. The question isnt which team SHOULD win, it is which team will. Take a look at recent history and tell me how often the team that should win does. Historically we know that at best 2 of the #1 seeds will even make the final four. Let' say UNC gets to St Louis - that may end up the most anti-UNC crowd you can find outside of Durham - the KU people will go just to cheer for them to lose
As for Illinois, they are an excellent team doing it in a down league. It has been months since they played a true tough game against a talented team. There is a reason we dont see unbeatens anymore. In fact, find the last 1 loss team to win it all.
Finally, I cant believe you are trying to persuade me, or anyone, with what some computer says.
dont see KU in the sweet 16 let alone the elite 8.
I reallly like the "mid major" teams...
Pacific, Nevada, Penn, Davidson,So Ill, Utah st, creighton, witch st...ect
I know some may not reach the tourney but the ones that do are real happy to be there and play their hearts out. Always an upset or two, or three...
Final 4?
Can see these teams making a run for it....
NC, Uconn, Illi, Ok St, KY, Syracuse, Mich St, Bama, Nova
Maybe 2 of the above and 2 sleepers ?
I reallly like the "mid major" teams...
Pacific, Nevada, Penn, Davidson,So Ill, Utah st, creighton, witch st...ect
I know some may not reach the tourney but the ones that do are real happy to be there and play their hearts out. Always an upset or two, or three...
Final 4?
Can see these teams making a run for it....
NC, Uconn, Illi, Ok St, KY, Syracuse, Mich St, Bama, Nova
Maybe 2 of the above and 2 sleepers ?
Vol I would add Bama to my sleeper list, but it would be based upon the draw. I agree a Big Least team could do some damage, but had to guess which. Probably the one on the bracket with Kansas!
Have to be impressed with what Roy has done this year. Turned a .500 team last year into a top team with the same players. I'll never get the "didn't win a championship so he is a choker" reasoning, and that goes in every sport. It's the same argument to me as "well, he didn't win a championship, so it's a knock on his career (insert multiple great athletes there). Great coaches help their teams win games but most of it falls on the players. Especially deep in the post-season, those players have been coached all season long, at this point they shouldn't even need to be told what to do. I love how none of the blame ever fell on the KU players for losing, for it's far easier to make the coach (Roy in this case) the scapegoat.
Saint,
In one sense I dont disagree. But fact is tourney games are different and Roy doesnt make the right adjustments. He always seems determined to play one way. The players havent been coached all year to play against "fill in the blank team" that they will see in the tourney - the Coach has to prepare, and generally in one day. Looma the teams he has lost too in the tourney - kie Rhode Island in KC of all places. Or a 5 seed Arizona when he had 3 #1 draft picks in the starting lineup/ At some point it aint just the players. Heck, absent 2 of the biggest bonehead plays of all time Dean Smith would ahve never won one, and looka t the talent he had. Did they just not do what they were taught every March too?
As for the turnaround, they werent a 500 team last year. They were an NCAA team seeded int he top half that many had penciled into the regional final if not final four. They had a ton more talent than Texas and who won? If Rick Barnes out prepares you that is not a good sign.
In one sense I dont disagree. But fact is tourney games are different and Roy doesnt make the right adjustments. He always seems determined to play one way. The players havent been coached all year to play against "fill in the blank team" that they will see in the tourney - the Coach has to prepare, and generally in one day. Looma the teams he has lost too in the tourney - kie Rhode Island in KC of all places. Or a 5 seed Arizona when he had 3 #1 draft picks in the starting lineup/ At some point it aint just the players. Heck, absent 2 of the biggest bonehead plays of all time Dean Smith would ahve never won one, and looka t the talent he had. Did they just not do what they were taught every March too?
As for the turnaround, they werent a 500 team last year. They were an NCAA team seeded int he top half that many had penciled into the regional final if not final four. They had a ton more talent than Texas and who won? If Rick Barnes out prepares you that is not a good sign.
gman, I agree with you far more times than not but I just cannot go with you on the whole "Illinois needs to lose a game before the tourney". There is just no logic to support that. Now, I don't think that it'll be a really bad thing if they end up losing once before then, but I certainly won't feel better about them if they do. Everyone points to the last however many undefeated teams since the Hoosiers ran the table and how they all lost in the tourney as evidence. But correllation is not causation. There is 0 difference between the team that is 30-0 and gets upset in the 2nd or 3rd round and the team that is 29-1 that gets upset in the same place. But everyone attributes the loss of the 30-0 team to the fact that they were "undefeated and couldn't handle the pressure" whereas the loss of the 29-1 (or 28-2, 27-3) team is just attributed to "typical March mayhem". If/when the Illini lose, it will be for one simple reason: it will be a game where they will go ice cold from behind the arc. That is how they have almost lost there few close games this year. Yes, losing a game would take a little bit of pressure off of them but that is more than outweighed by the seed of doubt that would create in all the players' minds. Right now they completely believe that everytime they step on the court they are going to win. Everytime they have had a close game late they have not paniced, they get more focused and stick to their game. I contrast that to 2 years ago when they lost to ND in the 2nd round of the tourney. They were the favored team and were down 6 at halftime. They came out in the 2nd half and just had no composure. They were missing layups and Dee Brown and Brian Cook couldn't hit a free throw to save their life.
The way I look at it is, since they have almost the identical team as last year, they got the only loss they needed to get handed to them by Duke in the sweet sixteen last year.
In any case, I just don't want to get what I'm saying confused with me saying that "Illinois won't lose". I am not saying that at all. I'm just saying that if they do lose in the tourney, it will not be because they went in undefeated and couldn't take the pressure. In the end, though, the only way this could be settled definitively is if they were to run the table.
The way I look at it is, since they have almost the identical team as last year, they got the only loss they needed to get handed to them by Duke in the sweet sixteen last year.
In any case, I just don't want to get what I'm saying confused with me saying that "Illinois won't lose". I am not saying that at all. I'm just saying that if they do lose in the tourney, it will not be because they went in undefeated and couldn't take the pressure. In the end, though, the only way this could be settled definitively is if they were to run the table.
