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Thursday, August 24, 2006
2006 NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs
Last Year
After adding several defensive playmakers, the Kansas City Chiefs believed they had enough stopping power to support their high-octane offense and step into the playoffs. With an 8-4 record after their first 12 games, they were in position for the postseason, but a 2-2 finish kept them on the outside looking in. Herman Edwards inherits an aging unit with a very small window of opportunity and he better tell them it's now or never.
What We Learned From Last Year
For about two weeks, the revamped Chiefs defense looked remarkably improved. The squad that permitted opponents to a score an average of 27.2 points per game only allowed 24 in the first two weeks.
Then reality set in. The truth was that the Chiefs dominated two teams that would go on to win eight games combined and finish in the bottom 10 of points scored per game.
A few defensive parts may have been different, but the results were, for all intents and purposes, the same.
Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain were imported to enhance the secondary and Kendrell Bell and Derrick Johnson were acquired to strengthen the linebacking corps.
Surtain underachieved, Bell disappointed, Johnson played like a rookie, and Knight looked old.
That being said, the Chiefs did shave a few points-per-game off their allowed total, but otherwise remained virtually the same team they had been under Dick Vermeil: a great running team, a poor passing, and a poor defensive team.
The defensive struggles stemmed from the porous play of the defensive line, more specifically, the tackles. High draft picks Ryan Sims and Junior Siavii continued to disappoint, leaving a big vacancy in the middle of the line.
Some might contend that the Chiefs run defense actually improved last year, as it's ranking climbed to seventh overall, but that is far from the truth.
The defense still permitted a lofty 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, even though they faced the second least amount of rushing attempts. Opponents had so much success passing the ball against the Chiefs that they didn't have to run it down their throat to beat them down.
The passing defense gave up a whopping 241.4 yards per game, fourth-worst in the NFL. Their inability to generate any form of a consistent pass rush meant the opposing quarterbacks had all day to find the leaks in the secondary.
The defense only accumulated 29 sacks while the front four accounted for 22 of them. Defense end Jared Allen had 11 sacks and for the second consecutive season proved to be the Chiefs only consistent threat. Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham sent many blitzes, it's just not many of them showed up on the stat sheet.
On offense, the Chiefs' patented running game was healthy as ever, ironically more so after Priest Holmes was lost for the season to injury. Larry Johnson finally stepped out of the diapers and morphed into the offensive MVP.
The Chiefs' passing game was never anything to really worry about and it remained that way in 2005 since there were still no explosive wideouts to depend on.
Leading receiver Eddie Kennison was reliable, topping 1,000 yards for second consecutive season, but he only had nine catches on third down. Sophomore Samie Parker developed into a steady pair of hands, but did not perform to the level that you would expect from a No. 2 wide receiver.
There was a direct correlation between the success of the passing game and the health of left tackle Willie Roaf. He was hampered by a hamstring injury and when he was out of the lineup, Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez had to spend more time blocking, and less time receiving.
Overall, the Chiefs makeup had not changed significantly enough to expect a drastic improvement. Their defense took a baby step forward and as a team, they played well at Arrowhead Stadium, defending their home field almost perfectly (7-1), but the same disorders that ailed them in previous years ? a mild pass rush and a soft defense ? still lingered and hindered the Chiefs from really making an impact.
Offensive-minded head coach Dick Vermeil has retired and his replacement is the defensively-oriented Herman Edwards. With an offensive unit that is growing long in the tooth, the Chiefs are hoping Edwards can quickly cure the defense and instill that missing killer instinct.
This Year
The Chiefs have led the league in total offense over the past two seasons mostly in part to a potent rushing attack and one of the league's best offensive lines.
Their offensive foundation is structured around a solid front five, but started to show cracks last season. With the retirement of Willie Roaf, the fissures are becoming more noticeable.
Some believe that his retirement is a guise for a 13-year veteran who just doesn't want to endure the rigors of training camp, but he recently re-emphasized his decision to call it quits. Roaf notified the team of his desire to leave the game as early as February, but judging by their lack of desire to find a suitable backup, they maybe thought he was bluffing.
The loss of Roaf will be felt somewhat doubly, as tackle John Welbourn, who could have filled in, also retired. Toss in a foot injury to Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters and all of the sudden there are a lot of question marks about the five guys who are expected to protect 36-year-old quarterback Trent Green.
Veteran tackle Kyle Turley, who missed the last two seasons with a back injury and was originally brought in as a tight end experiment, now takes over for Roaf. Turley is adept as a tackle, but needs to put on some serious bulk shortly if he plans to last the whole season. At this point, he is a gamble at best, but he is the team's only immediate option. Jordan Black struggled as a fill-in last year.
The three interior spots are manned by stalwart veterans Will Shields, Casey Wiegmann, and Brian Waters, but none of them are getting any younger. Expect their play to suffer a little bit without Roaf but at least there is depth with Chris Bober, who is versatile enough to start at any interior spot.
As long as Waters' foot sprain doesn't linger too much, the concerns up front shouldn't limit the Chiefs' run production. Roaf missed six games last season and the Chiefs didn't see too much of a drop-off in his absence.
Herm Edwards plans on feeding Larry Johnson endless carries and although new offensive coordinator Mike Solari is going to stick to last year's script, Edwards wants to implement more ball control. Considering the Chiefs' defense has been garbage for so long, it makes you wonder why they didn't think of this idea sooner.
The run game will be fine but the passing game still has question marks. The lack of depth at wide receiver radiates with concern. There are some rumblings that Eddie Kennison is unhappy with his contract and might leave camp ? a la what he did with the Denver Broncos mid-season a few years back. The Chiefs haven't really spent much time addressing his position in either the draft or free agency and although Kennison is not really a top-notch wideout, the Chiefs would be crippled by his departure.
The Chiefs offense will still be productive, but there are so many question that promote anxiety. Will Samie Parker develop? Can a fan rally bring back Willie Roaf? Is Priest Holmes going to play ever again? Is Kyle Turley strong enough to last a season? Has age slowed down Tony Gonzalez or caught up with Green?
With a few early season wins, most of these questions can be but to bed.
On defense, there seems to be much more certainty. The addition of Ty Law matches up a terrific tandem with Surtain. Lenny Walls and Benny Sapp are overmatched as starters but will become valuable contributors in their roles as nickelbacks.
With two premier corners, who can handle themselves on an island, Cunningham will finally be more comfortable sending blitzes.
The plan is to implement the ever-popular Cover 2 scheme, which should fit well since the three starting linebackers, Derrick Johnson, Kendrell Bell, and Kawika Mitchell, are all quick and capable in coverage.
The defensive line gets a huge boost with first-round pick Tamba Hali, who is a high-effort sack artist and is a can't-miss prospect. He will start with Allen and push Eric Hicks to a part-time role, which suits him better.
The tackle spots are still a concern, but the addition of Ron Edwards should help. Expecting bigger and better things from Ryan Sims is unlikely, but with Dalton and Edwards, the threesome should be serviceable.
The Chiefs took minor steps forward last season and all signs point to another greater step in the right direction this year, but much will depend ? as all Cover 2 defenses do ? on the safeties.
Two rookies have been impressive in camp and might start off the bat. Seventh-round pick Jarrad Page has pushed free safety Greg Wesley very had for his job. That alone should improve the performance of whoever is the eventual the starter. Second-round pick Bernard Pollard has a better chance to start. He has been a physical presence at the back end, something this soft defense hasn't seen in a while, and already has superior field range than veteran Sammy Knight. At this point in his career, Knight doesn't have much upside, but he is solid and won't make the rookie blunders that Pollard might be subject to.
By invoking the theme of ball control, the Chiefs are placing enormous expectations on their defense. This looks like the year that they will finally grow up but has the offense outgrown them, and are they too old to hold their end of the bargain?
With a difficult schedule ahead, it looks like the championship window of opportunity has closed.
Over/Under: 9.5
Ty Law is a big addition on defense ,while Willie Roaf is a huge subtraction on offense. Coach Edwards is working with an aging roster that still has a number of holes and although he might get nine or 10 wins out of this group, they won't be competing for the Super Bowl this year. They play: CIN, @DEN, SF, @ARZ, @PIT, SD, SEA, @STL, @MIA, OAK, DEN, @CLE, BAL, @SD, @OAK, and JAC.
Fantasy Sleeper
Samie Parker is the only real sleeper on this offense, more by default than anything else. The Chiefs are banking on his development and need him to expand into a reliable option. On a side note, you might get good value on Tony Gonzalez, who is coming off a two-touchdown season.
