I'm done, done, done working on this year's Derby. Put in (wasted?) mucho hours with this race that included watching key Derby race videos and workouts. Did a comprehensive pace scenario and also capped the race like I normally do. Actually, I like doing that stuff even realizing that the chance of coming up with something that is REALLY worthwhile in a race like this is slim, at best. Another reason is actually for this forum cause IF all the plicks run out of the moola OR there's a Zuppafecta in the picks here... . that just may genterate some mo interest in this place, meaning FORUM.
Advice: have fun with this 1000 piece jig saw puzzle that has about 100 pieces missing and be sure to save some $$$ for the Belmont when there will only be a few pieces missing.
If I wrote a little about the horses here, everyone would fall asleep before getting to the end of this thing.. .... sooo -"Pick your poison" :
Pace contenders (in order): nos. 5 AND the following all tied for 2nd -> 7,13,18.
Capping
in order): No. 1, 13, AND all tied for 3rd --> 5,8,10
There ya go. :11jackson
Also, how bout I just :mj13: and go by MY OWN opinion? That is, no. spreadsheets, calculators, pads, pencils etc. even though there is no recipe for a race like this. Here's a few comments...
No. 10, Wildcat Red - this one is pretty much ignored by the bestest cappers and the oddsmaker; I guess he's just considered a "rabbit " in this race? I can't help but wonder," What races were they watching this year?". This horse is for real AND that doesn't mean he beats the other 19 either cause NUTHIN means one horse WILL beat the 19 others in this race. BTW, he ran like a clone to General A-Rod in that S.A. Derby and that one worries me. I think Rod "got more gassed" in that race and may not be able to fight on in the late phases of this race. One big factor that doesn't bode well for the early speedsters is that Churchill stretch AFTER negotiating a mile+ distance.
No. 13, Chitu (what a freakin name, :facepalm: The more I look at this one - the more I like it. Still, like I wrote above, the added distance doesn't help this one's chances. Workouts for this one were so/so also. I think everything else looks great with this one. The short layoff? The few races he ran and the works sez that the layoff is not long enough to be concerned.
No. 5, Cal. Chrome; gotta write about this one, I guess. Except for maybe breeding and it's connections, EVERYTHING about this great looking colt sez him's the winnah. Ba, buh, buh, BUT, this one was pampered all winter.. you know, sunny Cal., so/so competitors (yeah, a few exceptions but most of them were pampered as well and that makes the out of the money ones a throw away), nice/fast wace track, BBQ with a cold one under an umbrella to block the sun after the race, the whole works. The others (except, those who were in SUNNY FLA where I KNOW enjoyed ideal conditions)? Well, they were roughing it alright in a brutal winter; scratching and clawing at each other with wind, COLD/hard twacks and all that goes with that like a little cold rain drops oe even snow flakes, and they got cramped in a 8' by 10 or 12'' stable between races to stay out of the elements. No BBQs for these, frozen hay and oaks for these for din din. Also, the pace thingy showed me that the pace in their races were not that far inferior to the California Dudes.
Hopefully, I'll try to keep the total $ wagers on this fiasco to a minimum that'll be required to have a slim chance of winning something. Doing some mixing and matching with the above nos. ONLY after seeing them before the race is probably the thing to do. I've hit some VERY nice L@@KERS in events like this one. One that comes to mind was that Summer Bird Belmont winner; that one was a standout L@@KER in one (2009 ?). Prob. won't be able to post these cause getting bets in between the paddock or post parade and the start could be a problem online.
I would bave put this novel in the discussiion thread started by Hedgehog, but all the blah, blah, blah just doesn't seem to belong there.
Just ADDED --> so much for keeping the total bets LOW... Dang, I had to see what props. are available at Dimes place. Now, I'm thinking plenty of MJers deal with Dimes and I came across two prop. jobbies that I DO feel quite confident about... er... VERY quite confident about, that is -
Chitu beats Uncle Sigh -120
Wildcat Red finishes in top 5 @ +250
I decided to go with Wildcat without seeing him before the race. IF Wildcat wins - I hit the zacta no matter what and if he finishes 2nd, I got a great shot at nailing the zacta. Sooooo.... I'm on the "Chitu" prop.
Advice: have fun with this 1000 piece jig saw puzzle that has about 100 pieces missing and be sure to save some $$$ for the Belmont when there will only be a few pieces missing.
If I wrote a little about the horses here, everyone would fall asleep before getting to the end of this thing.. .... sooo -"Pick your poison" :
Pace contenders (in order): nos. 5 AND the following all tied for 2nd -> 7,13,18.
Capping
in order): No. 1, 13, AND all tied for 3rd --> 5,8,10There ya go. :11jackson
Also, how bout I just :mj13: and go by MY OWN opinion? That is, no. spreadsheets, calculators, pads, pencils etc. even though there is no recipe for a race like this. Here's a few comments...
No. 10, Wildcat Red - this one is pretty much ignored by the bestest cappers and the oddsmaker; I guess he's just considered a "rabbit " in this race? I can't help but wonder," What races were they watching this year?". This horse is for real AND that doesn't mean he beats the other 19 either cause NUTHIN means one horse WILL beat the 19 others in this race. BTW, he ran like a clone to General A-Rod in that S.A. Derby and that one worries me. I think Rod "got more gassed" in that race and may not be able to fight on in the late phases of this race. One big factor that doesn't bode well for the early speedsters is that Churchill stretch AFTER negotiating a mile+ distance.
No. 13, Chitu (what a freakin name, :facepalm
: The more I look at this one - the more I like it. Still, like I wrote above, the added distance doesn't help this one's chances. Workouts for this one were so/so also. I think everything else looks great with this one. The short layoff? The few races he ran and the works sez that the layoff is not long enough to be concerned.No. 5, Cal. Chrome; gotta write about this one, I guess. Except for maybe breeding and it's connections, EVERYTHING about this great looking colt sez him's the winnah. Ba, buh, buh, BUT, this one was pampered all winter.. you know, sunny Cal., so/so competitors (yeah, a few exceptions but most of them were pampered as well and that makes the out of the money ones a throw away), nice/fast wace track, BBQ with a cold one under an umbrella to block the sun after the race, the whole works. The others (except, those who were in SUNNY FLA where I KNOW enjoyed ideal conditions)? Well, they were roughing it alright in a brutal winter; scratching and clawing at each other with wind, COLD/hard twacks and all that goes with that like a little cold rain drops oe even snow flakes, and they got cramped in a 8' by 10 or 12'' stable between races to stay out of the elements. No BBQs for these, frozen hay and oaks for these for din din. Also, the pace thingy showed me that the pace in their races were not that far inferior to the California Dudes.
Hopefully, I'll try to keep the total $ wagers on this fiasco to a minimum that'll be required to have a slim chance of winning something. Doing some mixing and matching with the above nos. ONLY after seeing them before the race is probably the thing to do. I've hit some VERY nice L@@KERS in events like this one. One that comes to mind was that Summer Bird Belmont winner; that one was a standout L@@KER in one (2009 ?). Prob. won't be able to post these cause getting bets in between the paddock or post parade and the start could be a problem online.
I would bave put this novel in the discussiion thread started by Hedgehog, but all the blah, blah, blah just doesn't seem to belong there.
Just ADDED --> so much for keeping the total bets LOW... Dang, I had to see what props. are available at Dimes place. Now, I'm thinking plenty of MJers deal with Dimes and I came across two prop. jobbies that I DO feel quite confident about... er... VERY quite confident about, that is -
Chitu beats Uncle Sigh -120
Wildcat Red finishes in top 5 @ +250
I decided to go with Wildcat without seeing him before the race. IF Wildcat wins - I hit the zacta no matter what and if he finishes 2nd, I got a great shot at nailing the zacta. Sooooo.... I'm on the "Chitu" prop.
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