Kentucky Derby

[walleyek]

OK, time to talk Derby. Right now is the best time to find good action, because we can weigh nice future book prices against what we guess the race-day odds will be. This is the most wide-open Derby I've seen in my 19 years of following racing. There are bargains galore out there on horses who have a legit shot in this year's crapshoot. Birdstone, Limehouse, Borrego and Wimbledon all should be played with current odds of 40, 64, 15 and 16 respectively. If Eddington draws in, you always have to consider Jerry Bailey, who'll ride Wimbledon if Eddington can't enter the fray of 20.

Horses that I think will be overbet and probably not win:

Smarty Jones
The Cliffs Edge
Tapit
Lion Heart
Castledale
Master David


Sometimes the profitable way to go in a 20-horse Derby field with no clearcut favorite is to find 4-6 medium-to-longshots and play them all to win on a graduated scale.

I see this year's winner being ridden by one of these 6 big-money hot jocks:

Jerry Bailey (Eddington or Wimbledon)
Edgar Prado (Birdstone)
Jose Santos (Limehouse)
John Velazquez (Pollard's Vision)
Pat Day (Minister Eric)
Victor Espinoza (Borrego)

 

[Caesar]

I disagree with Tapit Throw-away

I disagree with Tapit Throw-away

Although lightly raced, this grey could be peaking at just the right time. His only loss was in the Florida Derby and it was discovered that he had mucuos in his lungs. Despite that, he still finished 6th within 5 3/4 lengths after being heavily bumped and in tight for the last 1/4. His beyers are a consistent low 90's at different tracks and may be able to bounce a high 90's two races off the Florida Derby.
Trainer Mike Dickinson even said at the Wood that his horse was still recovering, but Tapit still surprised him with a 1/2 length stretch win over Master David and Eddington. That Aqueduct track that day (10 Apr) was so speed favoring, that many locals stated it was peculiar.
Good Luck, but do yourself a favor and put Tapit in your exotics.

 

[kickserv]

thanks for the write up walley


I know crap about horse racing.......I'll get in on some of that action.......thanks :tongue


and oh yeah.....check out Penalty Box.....guess I offended someone

 

[terpfan2]

I agree wholeheartedly. Matter of fact I make Tapit my top pick.
His somewhat low speed figure in the Wood can be explained by the unusual conditions that day at Aqueduct. There were 9 one turn races that day with a tailwind and only two route races when the horses spend equal time with and against the wind. This caused the track variant to be skewed towards a very fast track when in reality it was only fast in the one turn races.

Although he is not known nationally the jockey Ramon Dominquez has been working exclusively with this horse here in Maryland at Dickenson's premier facility. As a confirmed closer he will need a good ride and I am expecting one.

Tapit - Master David - Lion Heart - Borrego - Cliffs Edge is my exacta box with Tapit to Win and Place.

 

[sharky17]

I'm with you Caesar and Terpfan. Tapit is my pick as well.

I just read something by Crist as well on this year's Wood. As you mentioned, there were only two routes that day, and he noted that the other was run at 1 5/16 miles 3 HOURS EARLIER. He claims the figure should have been more like a 103.

It is sort of funny, though, how the last few years, the big Beyers have repeated themselves in the Derby. (War Emblem in the Illinois Derby in 2002 and even Ten Most Wanted with a good showing in last year's Derby after a big Beyer in Illinois as well).

I'm also rooting for Read the Footnotes a little. The long layoff is an obvious concern, but man, what a monster he ran in the Fountain of Youth to beat Second of June, who was showing a lot of promise until he was injured.

Anyway, I am hoping Dominguez is able to get him out of the gate a little better than in the Wood, and the traffic is not that big of a factor from the outside post. Tapit is getting my win money.

Should be a good one.

Good luck Guys.

Sharky

 

[walleyek]

You can certainly make a case for Tapit. But in the most wide-open Derby in recent history why not look for value? Pletcher can sweep the Oaks/Derby with either Limehouse or Pollard's Vision, both being ridden by money jocks. Mandella could win with Minister Eric (Pat Day can still get it done). Borrego has a shot. I also think Castledale could run big. My last choice will be Birdstone. Everyone will be focused on The Cliffs Edge, but Nicky Zito may have a surprise in store with a forgotten horse.

6-horse Exacta Box ($60) as well as 6 win bets ($25 each) on price shots -- $210 wagered this Derby for a possible boxcar payout:

Limehouse
Pollard's Vision
Minister Eric
Borrego
Castledale
Birdstone

 

[pd1]

14726325-1 2/10/2004 1:31 PM Future/Prop 26.37 527.40
HORSES - ODDS TO WIN THE2004 KENTUCKY DERBY - KENTUCKY DERBY(IN CASE OF A SCRATCH HORSE LOSES) - Tapit +2000
14726635-1 2/10/2004 3:37 PM Future/Prop 34.00 680.00
HORSES - ODDS TO WIN THE2004 KENTUCKY DERBY - KENTUCKY DERBY(IN CASE OF A SCRATCH HORSE LOSES) - Tapit +2000
14888453-1 3/17/2004 9:25 AM Future/Prop 20.00 500.00
HORSES - ODDS TO WIN THE2004 KENTUCKY DERBY - KENTUCKY DERBY(IN CASE OF A SCRATCH HORSE LOSES) - Tapit +2500
14929831-1 3/23/2004 8:28 PM Future/Prop 20.00 500.00
HORSES - ODDS TO WIN THE2004 KENTUCKY DERBY - KENTUCKY DERBY(IN CASE OF A SCRATCH HORSE LOSES) - Tapit +2500
14963606-1 4/1/2004 3:50 AM Future/Prop 50.00 1,200.00
HORSES - ODDS TO WIN THE2004 KENTUCKY DERBY - KENTUCKY DERBY(IN CASE OF A SCRATCH HORSE LOSES) - Birdstone +2400
Nov 25 10:26am Horses - Pending 30.00 to win 480.00
1. Horses - 2004 Kentucky Derby
Odds to win
Horse to win the 2004 Kentucky Derby
Tapit (+1600) [pending]

Dec 20 5:01pm Horses - Pending 20.00 to win 280.00
1. Horses - 2004 Kentucky Derby
Odds to win
Horse to win the 2004 Kentucky Derby
Tapit (+1400) [pending]