KISS - Part 3

[BASON]

I do not think I have ever been more disinterested in this weekend than I am this year. Been saying that the NFL is in decline for a while and this year really proves it. Part of me wants to see a Jax/Philly Super Bowl as it will likely be the least watched Super Bowl in a very long time. Would be a long 2 weeks for the NFL trying to hype that game.

Keeping it simple once again with two bets for the weekend.

2 Team 7-point teaser:

NWE -.5/Philly +10

2 Team ML Parlay (half the size of the teaser)

NWE -345/Philly +135 (2-1 payout)

I think the Jax defense will give New England fits, but in the end, I simply do not see the Patriots losing at home. Nor do I trust Bortles to have two great games back to back. Pats will frustrate Jax with short passes all game and take a few shots with the long ball after what they saw in Pitt. Jax is only here because the Pittsburgh coaching staff is a bunch of idiots. It was honestly the worst coached playoff game I have ever seen and I have been around a while. You have the added benefit that the NFL has a huge vested interest in the Patriots winning, so most of the calls will likely go there way once again.

Foles is terrible, but I do not think Keenum is that much better (yes, I know this makes no sense from statistics, etc, but I am talking simply about winning them this game). This is a tough game to cap, but I like Philly's defense at home. This is going to be one ugly game. Philly will play it exactly like they did last week. If they can shut down Atlanta they should be able to shut down Minnesota. We all know Minny is fortunate to be here, but the way they won last week makes them a dangerous team, which is why I am playing the teaser. Plus, the conspiracy theorist in me thinks the NFL really wants Minny to win so they have more of a story to promote. This is somewhat offset by Philly embracing the dog role.

All of this is why I will go with the two bets since the tease gives me a little cushion with Philly. Neither bet will be big for me, as I see no real value in either game, just some action to make the games more interesting.

Good Luck All!!

 

[BASON]

KISS system worked well for the playoffs.

That is it for me. I will play some props for the Super Bowl to make it interesting but will not play the game.

If I had to play it right now, I would tease New England and the Over. I think we see some points in this game.

Was fun, back to soccer for me.

 

[BASON]

I lied. I said I wasn't going to play the game, but I am playing it now. All this early Eagle love is a little too much for me. Playoffs this year have been dominated by dogs which actually makes some sense given the all around poor play in the league in general this year. The Eagles are a great home team, but the difference in defensive stats home vs away is significant to me. They embraced the underdog role in the playoffs and came through at home, but I was not impressed at all with the teams they beat.

I think their CB's and LB's have matchup problems in coverage which Brady will exploit. I also have zero faith in Foles. Minnesota game was a fluke in my opinion. If he can do it again, then I lose, but that is a risk I am willing to take. They will try to run and control the clock, but I think the Pats will focus on stopping the run and force Foles to beat them. The one thing I know is that Brady will show up and play great. Only way he has a bad game is if Philly can get to him, but the quick passing game and inside trap runs should help negate that. I simply think he will pick them apart and Philly will not have enough on offense to keep up.

So, I am on the Patriots. I am not messing with the points. I always say in soccer that sometimes you just have to lay the lumber when you really like a game and make some money. While I do not love this game, I am confident in laying the lumber so I will play the ML at -210.

If I see a line at one of my sites drop to 4, I will probably play a 7-point teaser with NWE and the Over.

Good luck all and enjoy the game! My little town is Eagle crazy right now, so I will cheer along with them, but just not with my wallet.

 

[Scrapman]

100% from past 51 superbowls the winners s/u and ATS

had two universities on the field being USC Trojans and Mich U wolverines

Teams who won superbowls who had players from BOTH Mich U and USC

Saints the 5 pt dog Beat The colts

Reggie BUSH USC Billy Miller USC MARK Campbell Mich U Sedrick Ellis USC and Jonathan Goodwin Thier Center MICH U

IR wr Adrian Arrington Mich U

GIANTS 2007 when they upset Patriots as a 12 point dog Sammy Knight USC Mario Mannigham Mich U Steve Smith USC

and Amani Toomer Mich U

PACKERS 2010 only two players when they Beat Steelers Charles Woodson Mich U and Clay Matthews USC

PATRIOTS 2001 14 pt dog Beat the rams Brady Mich U TY LAW MICH U Wille MCGinest USC

Steelers - 4 1/2 pts 2005 Beat Seahawks Troy Polamalu USC Jerame Tuman MICH U Larry Foote Mich U


Steelers 1980 Marvin Cobb USC LYNN SWan USC Jim Smith Mich U Russel Davis Mich U

THIS Year Eagles NELSON AGHOLOR USC Brandham Graham Mich U

also eagles haqve two players from Patriots who won that suprerbowl last year Chris long defense and Blount thier RB
patriots only Brady and alan Branch mich U