Probably no play for me today. Still, here are my thoughts.
Last time the NBA had a game this huge (Lakers vs. Blazers game 7 in 2000), David Aldridge of ESPN made a very smart comment. He said he would never give a prediction on a game 7 of this magnitude because there is nothing you can look at in the past to get a clear view of who has an edge. I agree with that, and that is why I will almost certainly pass. Still, I do want to break it down for those of you that will bet it.
If you are looking to bet the overall better team, you probably have to give the two points and take Sacramento. You would have to say the Kings have controlled play for a majority of the series and they are at home. Game 7 also tends to go to the home team this late in the playoffs. Last year Philly beat Milwaukee in this round, in 2000 L.A. beat Portland in this round and in 1998 Chicago beat Indiana in this round. In fact, I personally cannot remember the last time a road team won a game 7 in the conference final round.
The problem with all of that is that you are betting against the team with the better will to win. Shaq makes free throws late in games, Horry makes threes and Kobe makes impossible shots in the lane because they have an uncanny will to win. Certainly the Kings have shown a lot of guts with Jackson and Bibby especailly down the stretch in games this year, but the Lakers would seem to have the edge there.
The other thing to remember is that it is a bit tougher to get long runs against L.A. at key points because Kobe or Shaq is always available for a hoop when the team goes cold. I don't think Sacramento has anyone on that level. Therefore, my opinion on a side play is the Lakers +2.
For the total, I would think the over is the better play. With this matchup anything under 200 would have to be an over play worth taking a look at in my opinion. Good luck whatever you bet to day and remember to bet wisely.
Last time the NBA had a game this huge (Lakers vs. Blazers game 7 in 2000), David Aldridge of ESPN made a very smart comment. He said he would never give a prediction on a game 7 of this magnitude because there is nothing you can look at in the past to get a clear view of who has an edge. I agree with that, and that is why I will almost certainly pass. Still, I do want to break it down for those of you that will bet it.
If you are looking to bet the overall better team, you probably have to give the two points and take Sacramento. You would have to say the Kings have controlled play for a majority of the series and they are at home. Game 7 also tends to go to the home team this late in the playoffs. Last year Philly beat Milwaukee in this round, in 2000 L.A. beat Portland in this round and in 1998 Chicago beat Indiana in this round. In fact, I personally cannot remember the last time a road team won a game 7 in the conference final round.
The problem with all of that is that you are betting against the team with the better will to win. Shaq makes free throws late in games, Horry makes threes and Kobe makes impossible shots in the lane because they have an uncanny will to win. Certainly the Kings have shown a lot of guts with Jackson and Bibby especailly down the stretch in games this year, but the Lakers would seem to have the edge there.
The other thing to remember is that it is a bit tougher to get long runs against L.A. at key points because Kobe or Shaq is always available for a hoop when the team goes cold. I don't think Sacramento has anyone on that level. Therefore, my opinion on a side play is the Lakers +2.
For the total, I would think the over is the better play. With this matchup anything under 200 would have to be an over play worth taking a look at in my opinion. Good luck whatever you bet to day and remember to bet wisely.
