Las Vegas Shelby 427

[grinin]

I don't usually pound qualifying lines much, especially with Kenseth as a Fav, but this won't be available long

17 (-140) ov 31 @ WSEX

Kenseth pretty much owned Burton in qualifying last year on the cookie cutters and RCR and Burton in particular looked like crap last week. Also, with Shelby as the title sponsor I think Rousch is going to push that much harder.

 

[kegray1]

I looked at this same play.
LV last five qualify runs:
Kenseth qualify 13th,37th,9th,8th,25th
Burton qualify 24th,5th,8th,24th,28th

Kenseth won the race the year qualified 25th(2004).

I think RCR is going to have a long year. Only Harvick has looked solid and never really was a top 5 threat in Cali.
Burton was awful which is not like him.

KENSETH IS THE PLAY HERE.

 

[kegray1]

Good play:

I got it at -140 as well. I know see it at -160 and -170.

I got Kenseth(-140) over Burton for 70 win 50 QUALIFY. LOSER

I am done with qualify plays. They seem to go exact opposite of what they would seem.

 

[kegray1]

Adding Early win plays:
Kyle Busch(6-1) 35 WINNER +210
Mcmurray(25-1) for 10
Kenseth(8-1) for 25
Johnson(6-1) for 35
Kahne(50-1) for 10
Hamlin(20-1) for 15
130 in plays +115 ON THESE.
ADDED H2H PARLAY:
HARVICK over Stewart
BOWYER over Truex
HORNISH over Stremme
30 wins 127 WINNER +127

Straight Plays:
Kahne(Ev) over Burton for 100 win 100(Mentioned below early play) LOSER -100
Hornish(-130) over Stremme for 130 win 100. WINNER +100

 

[grinin]

Very interesting all the Toyota engine changes.

Kyle, Vickers, Reutiman, Ambrose, Speed

Doesn't bode well for the race

 

[Looselugs]

Your right!This is interesting. I just read this,

David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose qualified fourth and fifth, but also had to change their motors after their laps and will drop to the back of the field. Brian Vickers, who won the pole last week at California but had to forfeit it because of an engine change, and his teammate Scott Speed also switched motors Friday.

In all, five Toyota teams switched motors Friday.

 

[kegray1]

Got one early play before practice #2:

Kahne(Ev) over Burton for 100. ---Burton had a good qualify run but didn't practice well in first session and he was awful last week while Kahne has looked strong.

 

[grinin]

Harvick +110 ov Stewart

 

[kegray1]

I was eyeing that one as well. Harvick ran 4th here last year. Harvick has been so-so at this track. Stewart is always around the top 10 at LV so I got scared away.

 

[Looselugs]

Last practice results. Did anyone happen to the the results from the practice before this?


Laps Best Last AVG
1 48 Jimmie Johnson 48 182.587 177.072 179.139
2 24 Jeff Gordon 44 181.555 179.617 179.432
3 77 Sam Hornish Jr. 52 181.464 176.916 178.959
4 2 Kurt Busch 47 181.275 176.985 178.592
5 5 Mark Martin 27 181.263 176.557 178.458
6 18 Kyle Busch 31 181.153 176.430 178.990
7 26 Jamie McMurray 51 181.147 177.305 179.045
8 11 Denny Hamlin 44 181.068 177.532 179.298
9 99 Carl Edwards 29 180.717 178.253 179.134
10 9 Kasey Kahne 44 180.668 177.538 178.328
11 12 David Stremme 40 180.668 177.474 178.032
12 16 Greg Biffle 55 180.596 176.114 178.738
13 29 Kevin Harvick 35 180.511 176.563 178.552
14 96 Bobby Labonte 52 180.469 177.148 178.526
15 25 Brad Keselowski 30 180.313 166.775 177.433
16 98 Paul Menard 40 180.198 175.018 177.807
17 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 37 180.138 176.609 178.138
18 47 Marcos Ambrose 22 180.132 174.402 177.823
19 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 40 180.120 178.177 178.782
20 17 Matt Kenseth 23 180.090 178.059 178.199
21 39 Ryan Newman 49 179.922 177.247 177.949
22 33 Clint Bowyer 36 179.814 174.899 177.855
23 6 David Ragan 35 179.748 173.399 178.037
24 00 David Reutimann 32 179.748 176.269 177.867
25 31 Jeff Burton 48 179.671 177.340 177.658
26 19 Elliott Sadler 39 179.593 176.350 177.615
27 34 John Andretti 24 179.456 175.770 176.622
28 14 Tony Stewart 42 179.426 176.396 177.558
29 82 Scott Speed 33 179.366 177.090 177.642
30 83 Brian Vickers 41 179.301 178.136 177.919
31 8 Aric Almirola 40 179.241 177.136 177.485
32 20 Joey Logano 42 179.217 176.068 177.424
33 78 Regan Smith 16 179.081 176.194 176.989
34 1 Martin Truex Jr. 27 179.063 174.723 176.877
35 07 Casey Mears 38 179.021 176.465 177.231
36 44 A.J. Allmendinger 31 178.950 175.867 176.802
37 71 David Gilliland 34 178.849 176.951 177.136
38 43 Reed Sorenson 24 178.843 177.270 176.920
39 87 Joe Nemechek 17 178.359 177.971 175.836
40 64 Todd Bodine 18 177.684 176.217 176.586
41 55 Michael Waltrip 19 177.387 177.101 176.211
42 13 Max Papis 34 177.223 162.793 173.012
43 7 Robby Gordon 25 176.759 175.291 173.015

 

[grinin]

They are both on Jayski
best speed/best time/avg speed/fastest lap/# of Laps
1 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevy 181.733 29.710 179.251 1 26
2 5 Mark Martin Chevy 181.561 29.740 178.713 4 27
3 16 Greg Biffle Ford 181.561 29.740 177.806 8 23
4 18 Kyle Busch Toyota 181.281 29.790 179.550 2 27
5 17 Matt Kenseth Ford 181.275 29.790 179.010 1 16
6 29 Kevin Harvick Chevy 181.153 29.810 179.678 1 20
7 77 Sam Hornish Jr. Dodge 181.050 29.830 177.941 9 22
8 2 Kurt Busch Dodge 180.923 29.850 179.387 1 30
9 48 Jimmie Johnson Chevy 180.644 29.890 178.478 3 28
10 20 Joey Logano # Toyota 180.578 29.900 176.067 1 19
11 24 Jeff Gordon Chevy 180.554 29.910 178.477 1 20
12 96 Bobby Labonte Ford 180.499 29.920 178.766 9 24
13 12 David Stremme Dodge 180.499 29.920 177.182 14 21
14 99 Carl Edwards Ford 180.343 29.940 178.516 9 17
15 14 Tony Stewart Chevy 180.294 29.950 178.644 1 27
16 26 Jamie McMurray Ford 180.264 29.960 177.998 1 25
17 42 Juan Pablo Montoya Chevy 180.246 29.960 179.162 11 17
18 6 David Ragan Ford 180.162 29.970 172.124 2 18
19 00 David Reutimann Toyota 180.030 30.000 177.992 6 19
20 39 Ryan Newman Chevy 179.982 30.000 177.871 1 28
21 11 Denny Hamlin Toyota 179.928 30.010 176.337 9 28
22 83 Brian Vickers Toyota 179.820 30.030 178.659 6 19
23 19 Elliott Sadler Dodge 179.444 30.090 177.948 11 19
24 9 Kasey Kahne Dodge 179.319 30.110 178.129 20 22
25 07 Casey Mears Chevy 179.170 30.140 177.112 1 10
26 1 Martin Truex Jr. Chevy 179.075 30.160 177.492 1 23
27 25 Brad Keselowski Chevy 179.063 30.160 176.941 13 16
28 33 Clint Bowyer Chevy 179.051 30.160 177.791 4 17
29 31 Jeff Burton Chevy 179.021 30.160 178.124 19 23
30 98 Paul Menard Ford 178.956 30.180 176.608 2 23
31 47 Marcos Ambrose Toyota 178.891 30.190 177.247 5 9
32 34 John Andretti Chevy 178.324 30.280 176.169 2 16
33 8 Aric Almirola Chevy 178.318 30.280 176.535 1 11
34 43 Reed Sorenson Dodge 178.224 30.300 177.035 10 14
35 78 Regan Smith Chevy 178.171 30.310 176.127 2 13
36 71 David Gilliland Chevy 178.141 30.310 177.054 9 15
37 7 Robby Gordon Toyota 178.012 30.340 174.754 8 9
38 44 A.J. Allmendinger Dodge 177.948 30.350 177.059 3 15
39 87 Joe Nemechek Toyota 177.737 30.380 176.777 8 10
40 64 Todd Bodine Toyota 177.369 30.440 173.403 7 9
41 55 Michael Waltrip Toyota 176.499 30.600 175.787 5 8
42 13 Max Papis # Toyota 176.108 30.660 174.681 10 16
43 82 Scott Speed # Toyota 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0

 

[kegray1]

From watching the nationwide race, it looks as though it will be a wreck filled race which may put luck into some wagers.

 

[grinin]

From watching the nationwide race, it looks as though it will be a wreck filled race ....

I only saw the highlights of the nationwide. Seemed like Lots of getting loose then wrecking. Not so sure that the cup cars are going to be quite so bad. They seem to self correct quite a bit better than the nationwide cars once they get loose. Probably due to the rear wing.

Were there any tire issues? Especially right fronts? I think there will be lots of two tire stops tomorrow to gain track position since the tires are not falling off.

 

[toastonastick]

D.Hamlin +1800 1/2 unit

 

[DeadPrez]

To Win:

Johnson (+350) for 20
Gordon (+650) for 20
Ku. Busch (+1100) for 10
Kahne (+4000) for 10


Matchups:

Ku. Busch over Martin (-120)
Biffle over Edwards (+110)
Labonte over Montoya (-125)


Top 3:

Hamlin (+600)


gl

 

[kegray1]

I only saw the highlights of the nationwide. Seemed like Lots of getting loose then wrecking. Not so sure that the cup cars are going to be quite so bad. They seem to self correct quite a bit better than the nationwide cars once they get loose. Probably due to the rear wing.

Were there any tire issues? Especially right fronts? I think there will be lots of two tire stops tomorrow to gain track position since the tires are not falling off.

This track has a history of having many a yellow flag and there will be wrecks(not as bad as Nationwide race). The track should have some better grip with the Nationwide race laying down the rubber and the Cup car does handle better,but there will be some unexpected crashes.ALWAYS AT LV.

 

[Looselugs]

to win for value

Denny Hamliin 20-1
Jamie McMurray 25-1

Parley
Kurt Busch over Mark Martin
Kyle Busch over Matt Kenseth 50 pays 138

gl
lugs

 

[grinin]

They are using the same tire combination as the nationwide cars right?

Were there more than 3 tires go down in the nationwide race?

 

[kegray1]

Edwards tire went down on its own and Hamlin's went down but it was after he was already into the wall.
Tires will be an issue.

 

[william13]

gordon -115 over kyle x2
stewart +110 over jr
vickers +130 over jr
waltrip +155 over hornish

to win
48 +400 x 2
24 +550 x2 ........... g/l gents