Las Vegas Super Bowl Props

[jordan23]

Thanks DZ. I see the line moves above but not sure if your actually playing those. I'd love to see your list. Thanks

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[DZ]

Total receptions by Dion Lewis
Will Hill: Over 2.5 -150 / Under 2.5 +130


Total receiving yards by Dion Lewis
Will Hill: Over 21.5 / Under 21.5 -110

A few props from William Hill that moved significantly from the opener...

Will the opening kickoff be a touchback?
Open: Yes -200 / No +175
Move: Yes -125 / No +105

Yards of the longest touchdown drive?
Open: Over 81.5 -120 / Under 81.5 +100
Move: To the Under

Will either team use all 6 time outs in regulation?
Open: Yes +105/ No -125
Move: To the No

Thanks DZ. I see the line moves above but not sure if your actually playing those. I'd love to see your list. Thanks

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To be clear, if you can get any of these W-H numbers at or near the openers, I would bet them immediately. I will also be on the prop IE posted above on the 2H to be higher scoring than the 1H.

I would also take the 1Q under at 10(-120) if you see that available anywhere. Under 10 (-125) could be in play as well.

The Amendola prop to score at +220 or higher looks decent as well.

 

[DZ]

Heads......... -105

:0074

:facepalm:

only slightly better odds than playing black/red/odd/even in roulette

 

[Betone]

:facepalm:

only slightly better odds than playing black/red/odd/even in roulette

:lol:

 

[LordofBalls]

I'm gonna hope to see a short compilation of TOP Prop plays from the experts here at MJ's...


Like the chances of these, not sure the #'s yet:

*Eagles fg's... tm total over... maybe gm total over too
*OVER the yds on longest fg... good kickers, perfect turf

*Ertz OVER proj total # catches

*Will Brady fumble... YES (is this even a prop? lol Think Philly's D Line gets him)

that's all for now... bk later in wk!


LoB

 

[Old School]

there are better odds and a lower # at some outs

FWIW
Coach Dungy today said he expects Pats offense to have Brady throw as may as 55 times with that short passing game which sets up the deep shots to Cooks.

53 attempts in the Tenn. game

[FONT=&quot]Pass attempts for Tom Brady?[/FONT]​
Over38.5 Pass Attempts	-150
Under38.5 Pass Attempts	+123

<tbody ng-repeat="event in contest.events" class="ng-scope">
</tbody>

 

[DZ]

there are better odds and a lower # at some outs

FWIW
Coach Dungy today said he expects Pats offense to have Brady throw as may as 55 times with that short passing game which sets up the deep shots to Cooks.

53 attempts in the Tenn. game

[FONT=&quot]Pass attempts for Tom Brady?[/FONT]​
Over38.5 Pass Attempts	-150
Under38.5 Pass Attempts	+123

<tbody ng-repeat="event in contest.events" class="ng-scope">
</tbody>

Brady in 7 SBs:
2017: 43/62 (W)
2015: 37/50 (W)
2012: 27/41 (L)
2008: 29/48 (L)
2005: 23/33 (W)
2004: 32/48 (W)
2002: 16/27 (W)

Over 38.5 easy in his last 4 and in 5 of 7... seems too easy :shrug:

 

[carp]

Brady in 7 SBs:
2017: 43/62 (W)
2015: 37/50 (W)
2012: 27/41 (L)
2008: 29/48 (L)
2005: 23/33 (W)
2004: 32/48 (W)
2002: 16/27 (W)

Over 38.5 easy in his last 4 and in 5 of 7... seems too easy :shrug:

What do you think of the James White TD prop DZ? He seems to be one of the Pats favorites in the red zone in big games lately.

 

[DZ]

What do you think of the James White TD prop DZ? He seems to be one of the Pats favorites in the red zone in big games lately.

carp, I'd say it all depends on the price. I saw the Westgate opened on the high end at +300, which was a bit too high (I heard this morning they are at about +210/220 now). William Hill opened at -110, which was far too low and I'm sure the 'no' was bet up by scalpers (certainly not Joe public). I'm seeing +175/+170 offshore right now and, honestly, I'd say that's a too far below the value line for me.

In general, I find these to be pretty tough. With most 'player to score' props the 'no' tends to carry more value, because everyone wants to bet 'yes.' It's just human tendancy. It also doesn't help that the offshore books post numbers on them that are heavily juiced, especially when they are part of a multiple outcome 'anytime scorer' pool of props.

Personally, if I were going to bet that one, I'd want to get +220 or better, but I doubt that I'll find that. Had I been at the Westgate the night they put up the props, sure, I would have thrown something on the 'yes' +300. I would suggest that if you really like him to score, shop around and bet it soon, because it will only go down and try not to take a price less than +200. At that point you are really giving up too much value.

 

[carp]

Thanks DZ,

I did get some in at +250 on Saturday. You are right, I see it's down to +235 now at 5dimes. I still really like the bet. I know they have multiple red zone options, but I can't see New England steering away from White, knowing that he's been effective scoring in big games as of late.

 

[IE]

just played this one at betagame:

STRAIGHT BET Feb 04 [99079] TOTAL over 10.0 -120 (C CLEMENT (PHI) RUSHING YDS )

 

[DZ]

Thanks DZ,

I did get some in at +250 on Saturday. You are right, I see it's down to +235 now at 5dimes. I still really like the bet. I know they have multiple red zone options, but I can't see New England steering away from White, knowing that he's been effective scoring in big games as of late.

I think +250 is a great number for that prop. Kudos :0074

 

[DZ]

played a few small ones....

EAGLES VS PATRIOS - FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER IN GAME: LEGARRETTE BLOUNT ML+1500

EAGLES VS PATRIOTS - TOTAL POINTS SCORED 43-49 POINTS +400

EAGLES VS PATRIOTS - TOTAL POINTS SCORED50-56 POINTS +450

 

[IE]

my biggest prop play

TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
Zach Ertz

over 57.5 -109


others played earlier above


more points in 2nd half vs 1st half (-115)


TOTAL over 10.0 -120 (C CLEMENT (PHI) RUSHING YDS )